SCovert's Comments

Friday Options Update: C, GM, F, GE, CHK, AEM

Fri, 28 Nov 2008 13:46:37 -0500

How does one tell, especially in the face of an unusual volume spike in a particular option, how many contracts were bought and how many were written?

Is there any simple summary of such information in a single place, on the web, even if only for the most popularly traded options?

Baltic Dry Shipping Index: If It Really Is a Proxy for the Economy, We're in Trouble

Fri, 28 Nov 2008 11:05:14 -0500

&l...

How about now?

Rare Batman Pattern Forming in the VIX

Thu, 23 Oct 2008 17:08:28 -0400

Darn right it's legit.

What do we say to financial meltdown worries?

How about BAM!! ZONK!! WHAMMO!! Hand me the CDS-repellant BatSpray (TM), Robin!

Please forgive me for that, as ALL my stocks moved in a 10% range today. What? Yours did too?

Financial Markets Circle the Drain: Where Does That Leave Clean Energy?

Mon, 29 Sep 2008 18:54:57 -0400

They should have called a Housing Support Bill and they could have got it passed easily. Or the "support our troops apple pie patriot bill".

10 Years of Google: Is Search Really 90% Solved?

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 11:48:41 -0400

My frustrating search (ending minutes ago) for 60+ minutes on the real, demonstrated use of long-term inhaled corticosteroids on trying to gain size and strength through weight lifting, demonstrates the absolute infancy and uselessness of many aspects of search. The answer I was looking for was specific and simply, but the search results were a combination of word-salad and uselessness. Search engines are good for looking up "how to train a dog" or "discount jewelry toronto" but for now, that's about as far as it goes. We are nowhere near close to having a global computerized Oracle-type construct that can be asked any question.

Why I'm Not Buying Oil's Recent 'Correction'

Sun, 27 Jul 2008 11:47:31 -0400

To Brian Pursley -
I agree there's good evidence oil came from biomass but not necessarily fossils (ie. dead dinosaurs), but I'm not sure if that'll help us find more of it - or help us to create it any more cheaply. After science proves something, it'll take 10 years before it hits the newspapers and another 10-20 years before it becomes common knowledge.
Now if it IS possible to use biomass, like fields of algae (?) to create oil somehow, that'd set the fuel industry on its ass. Or get the inventor killed by big oil.
The short and/or medium term outlook for oil may indeed be bullish, but in the long run it's dooowwwwnnnn. California already is basically forcing 16000 hauling trucks to switch from gas to natgas.
In another 10 years we'll have books about "Peak Natural Gas" and "Peak Coal".
And so it goes ...
Sunday morning after a big party - am I rambling?

5 Key Quotes from Yahoo! on the Internet Industry

Wed, 23 Jul 2008 20:13:31 -0400

His point was, here are the salient points so you don't have to read the whole transcript or listen to the call.

The Precarious & Problematic Potash Pyramid at Potash Corp. (Part IV)

Sun, 13 Jul 2008 12:55:34 -0400

Next - the screenplay.

Sorry for the chartspeak (some people REEAALLLYYY hate charts and only enjoy the stories), but POT keeps bouncing up off its 50-day moving average. Hence it is a buy on those bounces, such as last Monday-Tuesday. One day the pattern will break and the 20-day moving average (for example) will cross under the 50-day, and it'll be time to take a loss without fussing about "the story". In other words, it will start going down one day, and it will be the fundamentalists more than anyone else who will ride it all the way down to $whatever instead of using a disciplined stop.

The Dow In Euros

Thu, 03 Jul 2008 14:00:36 -0400

Uh-oh.

I can think of 2 things to sell here - call options, and parachutes.

Ethanol Is No Field of Dreams

Sat, 21 Jun 2008 14:32:15 -0400

My 2-cents-worth barbaric yawp:

a) as a person with asthma, it's distressing to me that ALL focus has turned to global warming, and NOBODY talks about pollutants any more. Excuse me for wanting the world to be less poisoned so that I can use my (also poisonous) inhalers less to survive. We hear about carbon every day - but when was the last time you heard anyone say "CFC" or "PCB" or "terratogen" or "carcinogen" or "sulfite" etc. etc.? A very successful manipulation of public thinking is at work here.

b) Brazil has a thriving ethanol industry, thanks - it's old-school to them - keep in mind it was not engineered by the mentally challenged USA gummint

c) if coal and gas can be made clean, I'm all for it, and agree we don't need the solar, wind, wave, geotherm and other alternatives - we can coast for 50-75 years and let our great grand-kids worry about it.

E*Trade: Hindsight with Binoculars

Mon, 28 Apr 2008 08:47:33 -0400

I'm long July $5 calls on speculation.

My thesis is that Etrade did what banks are being handsomely rewarded for in March-April 08, but they did it in Nov 07 when it was grounds for punishment, not reward.

Nobody (not institutional buyers, anyway) has looked back to that time, realized the disconnect, and treated the stock as it would have been treated if it had started aggressively raising capital and writing down assets TODAY.

Efficient market my a--.

Market Not Buying Forward P/E Estimates

Mon, 10 Mar 2008 19:01:48 -0400

Sorry about my first entry, I thot I'd be able to edit it.

We need more of this type of charting because 1) it is not
the type of thing you see on TV (hint hint - clicks "Mute"
button) and 2) it sparks good ideas that let one project into
the future and may encourage some people to buy SPX
puts (or whatever) to hedge their longs.

The fly in the ointment for bears (that's me, since I exist
in the real world) is the global situation. Chindia have tens
of millions of people constantly joining their version of our
middle class. They will demand western-style networking
(CSCO etc.) and housing (will LEN or TOL or HOV go
international?), equipment for raising animals for food (CAT,
DE etc.), fertilizer, and phones by the barge-load.

It's hard to figure how it all plays out when you combine it
with the fact that our entire financial system is deleveraging
itself into oblivion.

Market Not Buying Forward P/E Estimates

Mon, 10 Mar 2008 18:53:46 -0400

More of this type of stuff!

More I say!

Thank you.