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moonlightingt

moonlightingt
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  • Tesla's Path To A Conservative $500 Per Share [View article]
    When AAPL touched $700/share, some analysts could show on paper why Apple would go to $1,600/share. It may go there one day, but this stock went to $385 first and 1 year later it is still below $530. Patience is key?
    Oct 29, 2013. 02:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons I'm Short VXX Right Now [View article]
    One way to excute on the same idea is to sell OTM call spreads in UVXY. The "leveraged" nature of that ETF allows to collect decent premium and increases your odds of success as, by design, these leveraged product will always go to 0 (even faster than VXX in this case). The long side of the spread protects you in case of a black swan.
    Oct 11, 2013. 02:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Facebook Expensive At $51 A Share? [View article]
    Parabolic moves have never been very good for any stocks in the past. I am not sure why FB would be any different. It could certainly go higher in the long run, but it may give back in a violent move before consolidating and running back higher. We wouldn't touch this one with a 10-foot pole above $50. We might buy some around IPO price.
    Sep 30, 2013. 07:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Retail Investors Rushing In And Nest Eggs Cracking [View article]
    No analysts are supporting TSLA beyond $200/share (highest price target on record). Even if that stock kept its irrational trend, $200 would be a serious resistance level. If the stock popped above that line in the coming days/weeks, shorting or buying puts would become a safe bet.
    Sep 29, 2013. 08:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy Cypress Semiconductor [View article]
    CY *could* also go to $100 or $5 within 1 year. $25 would be nice indeed, but sounds like a random number.
    Sep 29, 2013. 03:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It May Be Apple Harvest Time [View article]
    Fair. So we are looking at option 3 in my list, with a stock going down. Now, even if Jobs is unfortunately not there to help anymore, a few of his ideas may still be on the company roadmap. The innovation pipe might eventually dry out without a visionary leading the team, but Apple may release a few more of Jobs' visions before that happens, and hence, falling into option 2. Don't you think it is possible?
    Sep 25, 2013. 10:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It May Be Apple Harvest Time [View article]
    All this is true if you believe that AAPL will only spend the next decade releasing better and cheaper versions of their iPhone and iPad. Any new innovation from Apple could be a strong binary event for the stock. So 3 solutions:
    - AAPL is only selling iPhones and iPads for the foreseeable future and this analysis is right on.
    - AAPL is releasing 1 or several new products, which dazzle customers and the stock is moving up like a rocket
    - AAPL is releasing 1 or several new products, which are not providing the expected "wow" factor and the stock could be all over the place.
    Conclusion: the bearish recommendation in the article is equivalent to a coin toss: probability to be right is 50%.
    Sep 25, 2013. 10:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Adding $4.5 Billion To Valuation [View article]
    @homerj12: Question: how many electric cars will Mercedes sell around the World in the next 3 years and how much licensing $ are forecasted in 2014, 2015 and 2016 for Tesla? Curious to understand your profit growth assumptions.
    Sep 25, 2013. 01:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Adding $4.5 Billion To Valuation [View article]
    Thanks for your answer Andrei. Very clear stand. Your target is very close to the very publicize bearish call from Aswath Damodaran of $67.12/share in his blog. Even if the stock doesn't drop back to these levels, if your entry point was in the $165-$175 range, you will be in the green shortly (the key is to take your profit before this stock moves on its next leg up). We have been discussing and comparing TSLA and NFLX exponential moves extensively in our blog; we couldn't agree more that the stories are similar. This also means that technical data are probably more important than fundamentals for Tesla. Now, TSLA could also follow an AAPL trajectory: up, up, up for years before a sharp correction. You do not want to be the guy shorting AAPL at the end of 2009 at $180 :)
    Sep 24, 2013. 06:34 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Adding $4.5 Billion To Valuation [View article]
    Very comprehensive analysis. This sounds like headwind for he stock indeed. Now, how much will the stock be at the end of the year (when options are exercised) and how much of a correction will this trigger? If the stock goes to $220 by December and drops back to $195 as a result of a dilution, what prevents an investor to get in at $180 today? This would still be a 8% ROC over 3 months. So, question to Andrei: you are short Tesla (TSLA) at which level? and what is your target to cover?
    Sep 24, 2013. 04:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Responsiveness Report - Bad News For Apple? [View article]
    We are glad that Nintendo didn't read that memo when they created the Wii. By all performance benchmarks, the Wii was lagging the competition (by far). So it failed, right? Not quite. Customer experience is key. At this point, Apple (APPL) success or failure is not measured in ms.
    Sep 23, 2013. 10:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No Dilution Worry On Tesla Motors [View article]
    Very good response. That said, it is clear that the current stock valuation is not reflective of reality either. The violent passion of the bulls and bears around Tesla is what makes this stock levitate at the moment. Regardless of fundamentals, TSLA is moving up slowly on momentum and sporadic short squeezes. Because gravity will catch up, we are short $195 calls in TSLA.
    Sep 23, 2013. 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Dilution Is Inevitable [View article]
    @Wayne11: You can skip reasons 1 through 8. With the market at all time high and TSLA defying gravity at $180+/share, it will come down some at one point (maybe on its own, maybe dragged by the overall market). What is your target to cover? That is key..
    Sep 22, 2013. 10:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Dilution Is Inevitable [View article]
    @SilverD19: very good insight. This proves again that markets can be irrational. We can put this blog story in the same bucket as Carl Icahn twitting about AAPL.
    Sep 22, 2013. 09:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Dilution Is Inevitable [View article]
    Tesla Motors is a very young company, where technology is heavily leveraged. Comparing Tesla with regular car manufacturers is the equivalent of comparing BofA with an online bank that doesn't have branches. Additionally, Walls Street proves periodically that what is "mathematically impossible" can happens anyway. We would rather be on the right side of the trade than mathematically right and broke :)
    Sep 22, 2013. 09:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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