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proseadvocate

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  • Technician: No Signs Of A Market Top; Use Pullbacks As Buying Opportunities [View article]
    I tend to agree with commentator above without reading the article solely because the title of the article surely suggests cheerleading, much like the financial press that always has to spin bad news as if there is some meaningless reason for it. The bottom line that I will ask the author and any following commentators is simple: Does technical analysis ever predict a decline before it has happened???? If not, what the hell good is it?
    Apr 8, 2014. 09:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Timing Report: Negative Divergences Set The Stage For A Nasty Spill [View article]
    What I find to be compelling for the downside argument are 1) interest rates cannot go any lower and if indeed we are on the mend [which I do not accept] then higher rates translates ultimately to lower stocks 2) much of the ballyhoo about corporate profit comes not from higher sales and margins but refinancing debt and progressively lower rates, resulting in the direct benefit to bottom line, and 3) the best case that cheerleaders can make for stocks is that everything else is so bad [which dictates the implementation of the Bernard Baruch rule of 'buying straw hats in winter'. In other words, everything else is due for gains as stock holders [this time] want to protect their getting-even from the last bust.
    Mar 25, 2014. 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Detailed Case To Short The S&P 500: This Time Isn't Different [View article]
    PS. I have not read the entire article nor any of the comments but one glaring truth [for those of you who complain the author is short on facts] is obvious and apparent: that corporate profits were bolstered if not buoyed by the zero interest rate policy. Every time they refinance at lower rates, their profits naturally rose but not because they were selling more or managing better. Ultimately, the disinflation turns to either distrust saving, which has not happened yet, or deflation, which has yet to be recorded since they continue to move the goal posts. The big hit to bonds last year was obviously deflationary just like the dotcom bust and Great Recession declines. Most affluent folks are boomers who are pulling-in their horns and many are just starting to break even, regardless of what the manipulated indexes suggest. When they get even or close, they are ready to take the money off the table. Is that quantifiable? Obviously not but, if it was easy to tell market tops, everybody would do it... History proves that few are able to do it successfully. My experience tells me it is better to be a little bit ahead of the curve that behind the 8-ball, wondering what happened?
    Mar 24, 2014. 11:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Detailed Case To Short The S&P 500: This Time Isn't Different [View article]
    I liked the article instead of the perenial cheerleading by neophytes who think that trees grow to the sky. The Economy, like the market, runs in short and long term cylces that constantly repeat. Why? Human nature has not changed in 3000 years. We may not know the exact time, especially when the Banksters manipulate markets as they are rigged today worse than even in the Roaring Twenties. I have forty years experience as a pro and the author's valuation metrics are on point, along with his observations on the economy that make sense to me. When the music stops this time, the exists will be blocked by super computers that will take us to a new panic that will be virtually instantaneous. The question is only whether the hedgies are all in on the fix with the big banksters? The little guys are no longer in the market. It is just a matter of short time, in my opinion and even though the hedgies are paid to swing for the fences, they can get rich if they bet right on the downside too.
    Mar 24, 2014. 10:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It Is Different - Americans Are More Pessimistic [View article]
    I did not bother to read the article and I only started to read it because I thought the guy was being sardonic because "this time it's different" was what they [the pump and dump cheerleaders for Banksters] were saying just before the last crash. This guy just doesn't get it or he thinks everybody else has short memories.
    Mar 8, 2014. 05:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Investors Be Shorting Stocks Instead Of Buying? [View article]
    Yes, indeed, I not only read but I also think. "Don't fight the Fed" falls into the same "formulaic" pretext that stockbrokers have shoveled since they traded on the curb of streets e.g., 'over the long term, stocks always go up'. To paraphrase a deposition answer of Pres. Bill Clinton, 'it depends on what you mean by up and long term'. As two of the more historical fact posters here report, NASDAQ is still a long way from recovering from its 1999 highs, especially when adjusted for real inflation, which is much higher than what the Fed Consortium of Banksters and their piant government puppets would have us believe. Not to confuse any of you with more facts but; the way the Fed and Govt. wipped inflation now, "WIN" in 1981 was to move the goal posts and change the index's biggest component [housing] from owning to renting, when owning was expensive and renting was cheap. Here is another great quote, that is more rervealing: The Fed is a federal as Federal Express... Bottom line is the Bansters always stay out of jail while the shareholders pay for the boss' experience. The old saw in the stock market need not be repeated about money and experience. When the music stops, as it has already [economic bust world-wide] the lemmings have no chairs [which in this case are new buyers as those who would buy more have already bought]. That is the essence of supply and demand which ultimately depends on earnings since sooner or later, throughout history, all speculative markets run out of "greater fools" and history repeats. Today, the consolidated presss is owned by a handful of manipulators [Rupert Murdock (the Aussie owner of Fox and WSJ) lives in China, so naturally, they cheerlead, in no less a way as the perenial bulls here. It is a race to the bottom and the international banksters continue to reap the rewards. The best reason for buying stocks most gurus can make today is that other prospects looks so bad, to which we are supposed to somehow find comfort? In other words, since interest rates are already at zero, they must go up. The question here is when? In Japan, negative real rates have been around since their stock maket peak around 1990 and the crowd is somehow now making that out to be a good thing. Is that long-term enough for you true believers? The only formula that can be relied upon in markets driven solely by sentiment is simple and eternal: Buy when everybody else is selling and sell when everybody else is buying. The End
    Dec 1, 2013. 05:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Investors Be Shorting Stocks Instead Of Buying? [View article]
    P.S. Technical analysis have never been proven to be a reliable predictor of stock prices though sentiment surely has its place. Bottom line is that the reason central banksters have driven rates to zero is that the economy stinks and they make lots of loot from fooling the public with their pretext that pushing on a string will make trees grow to the sky [and fools, who rush in but typically have no money, will push the economy forward by paying too much for stock certificates].
    Nov 26, 2013. 01:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Investors Be Shorting Stocks Instead Of Buying? [View article]
    Is it just me or did anybody else scratch their head at this article? On the first part, he shows us three 2008 charts that he says would cause the rational investor to short an already cratering market. The smart money waited a couple months and bought stocks and shorts would have lost at those levels. Now he tells us that the bubble in stocks is not really a bubble because one professor says that fools will continue to increase the P/E multiples because that's what fools do. We know that and so why should we follow the greater fool theory????? Few in this business know the old stories about buying straw hats in winter or long bonds in early 1929, like Charles Merrill who rode his steam yacht to Europe and came back much later to buy out the competition at bargain basement prices. As only the shoe-shine boys on Wall Street have no money but great hopes, I will leave what's left of this bull trap to such brave souls.
    Nov 26, 2013. 01:32 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TIPS Are Priced To Low Inflation And Weak Growth [View article]
    I liked much except the punchline or conclusion which simply ignores the 800 lb. gorilla he spent time explaining in the first place. What current prices are is immaterial to what they will be in the future and that is why investors have run to the safety of TIPS in up and down markets. They cannot lose money period and are guaranteed to produce a real return that at or near the rate of inflation. True, if inflation expecations increase dramatically, current price [expecting low inflation] will adjust but not nearly like straight bonds which have no inflation adjusting mechanism. If indeed, like the bond pros expect, we are in for serious deflation, like 15 years following 1929 and removed only by World War, all so-called "equity" buyers will discover all they "own" is worthless certificates to decorate their walls with, while bonds, including TIPS will be even pricier. The bottom line is what does the Illuminati have in store for all the rest of us? If history is a teacher, they will continue to pay us nothing for our money, they will cause boom and bust stock markets that they manipulate like in days of old [pump and dump]. That leaves the Sucker penniless while guys w names like Zucker[man] will have loot to buy corn and pig farms in Iowa [since none of us need to "chat" with anonymous identity thieves, but we all still have to eat].
    Nov 21, 2013. 10:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Relationship Between Stocks and Bonds: What Just Happened? [View article]
    I read the article and comments but though I am a retired Registered Principal, CFP, Econ, Minor and successful student of money and behaviour, I find it near impossible to find a conclusion to the lot of you. The underlying truth is that the consortium of Bilderbergs [once known as Illuminati] have slowly decimated the New Deal so that dancers and dilletants all think they know where the markets are going because of some math or myth or the fear they see in their friends eyes. Throughout this malaise, nobody mentions that for 40 years, average Joes, who simply saved their money, were guaranteed a 5% return at any U.S. savings bank. That went the way of the Contract w Big Business of the so-called conservatives, the same guys who want to privatize Social Security. The next leg down for stocks will come about because those who think they are smart and follow the Banksters' Pied Piper Press to stock/paper will finally wake up to the reality that dividends, like JC Penney, are not guaranteed, just like past performance. Because of so-called civil rights, the 4 in 5 whites near poverty in the U.S. may just figure out that minorities are not their enemies but their only real allies. When the middle class is brought low, then maybe they will finally take down the bosses and keep them down. I may not live to see it, but surely, it will come and it may be akin to the French Revolution. Let's start with the lawyers.
    Aug 1, 2013. 09:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warning: Stocks Likely To Crater From Here [View article]
    From what I read on this thread, we have what looks like bulls who are always bulls and bears who are perennial skeptics. I am neither one or the other but a pragmatist who like another long timer believes that all stocks are bad unless they're going up. How or why they go up or down is the question which has no precise formula that works over longer than the current 25 year cycle up or down. Those who can call those turns [when they happen] which is usually just a matter of time and fundamentals combined with the inevitable sentiment, should remember that hedging is an art and buying some insurance just makes good sense. Bulls make money, bears do too. Pigs eat slop and get slaughtered.
    Mar 3, 2013. 12:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Warning: Stocks Likely To Crater From Here [View article]
    The author makes sensible arguments without even touching on the almost conclusive forecasts of very bad earnings coming in the first quarter. Fact is that corporations may be flush w cash but they have no good use of the moolah ala Apple, the darling of the must-have gadget sector [i.e. the well-healed who are the only ones spending $600 for every new breakable-loseable-obs... [e.g., Blackberry] status-symbol so they can be socially appreciated by the horde of "friends" that they do not really know, who are just mining their data to steal their bank accounts. The hype over Facebook and Apple [and their fall to earth] are just two examples of blue sky that we should have all been expecting. Now JCPenney can't even sell to the masses so for me, I have little hope for the classes. The next leg down will see the poor clamoring to eat the rich, as the Spanish and Italian proletariat are already dusting off their pitch forks. As our new police state here is comprised of many whose rise from the plantation has been brisk and parabolic, I can see much of the same for USA. At least in the last bottom of the Kondratief Wave, we were still primarily agrarian and folks could grow their own food. What are all the fat cats in high rises gonna do now?
    Feb 28, 2013. 04:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 ETFs To Consider Owning During The Next Market Collapse [View article]
    The stupidist "advice" I have seen lately. Just look at the last stock crash in 08-09 to see that Gold and everything else save Treasury Bonds, declined on similar levels to paper. But for huckters pitching commodities like broken records, who continue their schpeel until the suckers are fleeced, facts tell a different story. Then they will be pitching the next greed and fear "opportunity" du jur as long as they have a plausible theory. The theory is that paper is only an IOU. This is true but, last time I looked, it said Legal Tender. Only if some country, any country made their paper redeemable in gold would the author have a point. In that event, everybody who worried abount inflation would buy that currency and earn interest on their investment. Speculation has always been nothing but a gamble.
    Jul 22, 2012. 11:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold's Fundamentals Shining Again - Time To Cover Shorts [View article]
    The last people on Wall Street I would believe are Goldman Sachs. As to inflation, we had lots of it in the decade of the 90's and gold trended down the whole decade. Then when the tech boom busted in 2000, the gold bugs came out of the wordwork three years later, claiming that gold was now a flight to safety, as paper money and stocks and bonds were all conjured stufff of the likes of Bernie Madoff. Now that Gold peaked and has been headed back down [as all parabolic rises do over time] it appears Goldman wants to sell its Gold to you and me by telling us to buy, buy, buy [just like they told their CDO suckers [as they pumped and dumped].
    Mar 30, 2012. 05:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retreat Unfolding? [View article]
    Another well written and insightful article. My comment or question goes to the recent sell off of TIPS, which yesterday declined almost as much as long bonds. What the heck is going on? They are obviously so much less risky that it suggests the market is controlled by speculators who are either idiots or acting in mass to manipulate the market. What are your thoughts or understandings?
    Jan 21, 2011. 01:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
75 Comments
28 Likes