andrewpmk

Microsoft Mission Shift: Software Is Dead, Long Live the Web - Ozzie

Microsoft might not be very good at the web right now, but with Windows and Office clearly on the decline, it may be its best hope for surviving the onslaught of Linux.

Phillip Morris: Smoke 'Em If You Own 'Em

Smokers are quitting in record number in developed countries and Phillip Morris has dumped Kraft and the growing international market, leaving it only with the declining US market and a stake in the SABMiller beer company. This is a terrible long term investment.

Is Visa Really Priceless?

Boy oh boy isn't this stock overhyped. Yes this company has great potential for international growth (as long as government regulators aren't too harsh on them and there isn't a bad recession - both significant risks). But anyone who's telling you that Visa is a path to easy money is WRONG because ultimately all markets are efficient so any stock can go in any direction including down especially once the hype wears off. Google and MasterCard were just plain LUCK. Don't count on Visa doing so well: maybe it will but quite likely it won't.

AMD's Troubles Are Making Intel Investors Nervous

I have to agree with Locke. AMD has been in trouble for years. Its technology is greatly inferior to Intel's and it has spent a lot of money in the last few years trying to catch up to Intel's R&D machine (without any real success). Its acquisition of ATI hasn't helped - it has already written off $1.6 billion of its goodwill - and with Intel entering that market they might have to write off even more. Intel's revenues will inevitably go down somewhat due to the recession but increased market share and new markets (graphics cards, ultra-mobile processors) should counteract that somewhat. The computer industry as a whole is not in trouble so selling Intel because AMD is losing even more money this quarter is foolish.

VIX-S&P 500 Correlation: Short-Term Top?

Coincidence?

Chance This Is The Bottom? Zero.

Don't forget that markets are efficient. Therefore, the chance that markets have already bottomed > 0%.

Keep EnCana On Your Short List

This will go up as long as natural gas and oil prices go up, just like all oil and gas companies. If oil and natural gas go down, this stock will likely go down as well. Keep that in mind.

Will Better Browsers Pose a New Worry for Google?

I doubt it. If any of these new search engines starts to pose a serious threat to Google, Google will just buy it.

United Technologies Should Hold Up Well in a Recession

Because markets are efficient. Stocks are just as likely to go up as they are to go down, because a lot of the economic risks (recession, subprime writedowns, slowdown in construction, etc.) are "priced in" to the market. Don't let anyone tell you it's a certainty that stocks will go down - this is false.

U.S. Decouples From Global Markets - in Reverse

Don't forget Canada. It's down only 6.1% YTD. High oil and gold have buoyed Canadian stocks recently.

Visa’s Record IPO: A Profitable Long-Term Investment?

Watch out for litigation. Visa is facing a lot of it over anti-trust concerns. This is a serious risk that people seem to be overlooking.

4 Recommendations to Defend Against a Financial Armageddon

Yet another bear. Seriously, we have had 10 recessions since World War II and after every one, the economy has recovered and we have had sometimes quite spectacular bull markets. There's no reason that this won't happen this time as well, given that the Fed has been pretty aggressive with lowering interest rates and bailing out financial firms. As soon as the interest rate reductions which started in fall 2007 kick into full effect, which will take about a year, we will turn around and all will be forgotten. I bought some stocks in February, and I am planning on buying some more because P/E ratios are attractive right now and this talk of a Great Depression is simply absurd. Don't dump your money in gold or oil (which are bound to have a correction) or T-bills (because yields are less than inflation). If you have a reasonably long time horizon, this is a great time to load up on cheap stocks.

AAA Bonds That Fail the Investment Grade Test

ABX = Junk bond fund

Options Trader: Tuesday's Outlook

Obviously since the Wall Street Journal is telling everybody that there will be a Great Depression of 2008 we should be buying! P/E ratios haven't looked this good in years.

Oh, and commodities are overvalued. Don't buy them.