User 162922

6 Comments

    • ON: Sun May 4th 13:32 PM
      Commented on:
      What Goes Around Comes Around in the Equity Market
      Curious cat;

      Inflation is defined as too many dollars chasing too few goods, yes? The housing bubble came about because too many dollars were available to easily to too many people that couldn't afford it, yes? The question is, has the money supply increased? If so, that is more money in the system chasing the same amount of goods? Is that inflationary? I think so. So yes housing has become deflationary, but the world money supply, by all accounts, has become inflationary.

      A bit further on inflation: Inflation measurements have changed twice since the 80s-shortly after Volcker was shown the door, and then during the Clinton administration. So, whereas inflation is 4.2% today, pre Clinton change it would be almost 8%, and pre-Reagan, almost 12%. So then, is there inflation or not? Depends on which measurement you trust.

      Not sure about your pricing analysis either: In general, that works all things being equal. Having said that, nothing is equal over the last few years. I have so much money per paycheck. If I have to dedicate more of my money to food and gas/oil. It's less I have to spend on those products. Now those products have costs to produce them. If the vendor can't sell them for a profit, he doesn't, and they disappear from the market-he can't just keep dropping his price below cost of production.

      Of course, this brings us back to inflation, or at least cost of living. The cost of living (food gas/oil/electricity/na... gas) have increased significantly. Perhaps that big screen tv has gotten cheaper along with that nice suit or fancy dress, but I can't afford them now that I have to pay so much in food and gas. Oh, but they're not included.

      If the energy/food situation is real, then many "non-discretionar... items may actually disappear as the terms become redefined according to people's pocketbooks.
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    • ON: Sun Apr 13th 11:06 AM
      Commented on:
      The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted
      Not directly related, but Marc Antony had talked much about palladium recently.

      www.resourceinvestor.c...=
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    • ON: Thu Apr 10th 07:10 AM
      Commented on:
      It's Now 'Official': Ethanol Is a Scam
      No, that's why the French have the saying, "Plu cest change, plu cest le meme chose." Political Science 101-A politician's most important job function is to get re-elected. Neither party will change their policy supporting ethanol until after the election because of the votes. I'd bet you'd find ADM's political budget split relatively evenly between the parties.
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    • ON: Fri Mar 21st 08:56 AM
      Commented on:
      Financial Entertainment TV Buries Itself with Disinformation
      A vendor has a right to sell his product, especially if the product produces the expected result for the price. Media makes its money by selling advertising, which means they need to attract eyeballs. Humans are attracted by emotion thus the newspaper saying, "If it bleeds it leads." Therefore, whether it be financial news, general news, or any TV program, it must first entertain or at least captivate the individual so they can sell commercials.

      Mr. Cara perhaps makes the point-silently-that in this business success is determined by emotionless analysis and execution (although evaluating emotion may be an analytical variable). Since financial TV must, by it's nature, appeal to emotions, it potentially dilutes analytical effectiveness-costing the viewer money and time.
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    • ON: Sat Mar 15th 18:31 PM
      Commented on:
      Global 'Oil Shock' Rattles World Stock Markets
      Unfortunately not only does it take at least 10 years to get a nuclear plant built, but infrastructurally speaking, it is impossible to produce that many nuclear plants quickly.

      www.bloomberg.com/apps...
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    • ON: Tue Mar 11th 22:34 PM
      Commented on:
      $200 Oil - Who's Going to Pay For It?
      That's the point...The US is headed for a restructuring of society. Whereas we've dealt with the internet bubble and the housing bubble, we're now experiencing the evaporation of the "Cheap Energy" bubble. Oil is the cheapest most versatile form of energy we have and it's only been around for about 100 years. It has done more for productivity (increasing the amount of work done in the shortest amount of time) then perhaps any other substance on earth. Think of it this way: How long would it take you to cut a cord of firewood with an ax and a hand saw? Now, how long does it take you to do it with a chain saw and a motorized wood splitter? What's really scary, is the majority of development, literally, the way the USA is laid out, has been accomplished in the cheap oil era? What does that mean for the future? Whereas Europe was laid out in the expensive energy era (horseback, oxen, bipedal locomotion), they are likely more able to handle the return to the mean that we are now experiencing in energy costs. Isn't it interesting the Mayan calendar is supposed to end in a few years just as we head into perhaps the most (insert adjective here) era since....the plague?
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