roger maxims's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/162963/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/157785-china-exactly-where-japan-was-in-the-1980s?source=feed#comment-650281 650281
You mean Japan is the Asia Pacific version of Alice in Wonderland?

You mean Toyota and Sony's technologies are dreamt up by Mr Watanabe and Mr Tanaka overnight when they saw fairies?

You mean over 80% of ministers in the current Japanese cabinet / opposition politicians are idiotic lawyers having graduated from sandboxes like the University of Tokyo, or passed the 1.7% success rate bar exam (lowest in the world btw)?

You mean industrial revolution on its alone made middle-class people millionaires and entrepreneurs billionaires?

You really should consider joining the law firm Morrison & Forrester, better known by itself and others as MoFo.


On Aug 27 04:54 PM Yaudy wrote:

> Roger, blind faith like yours in Harvard and lawyers is exactly the
> source of America's problems. Japan does not have any school that
> can compare to Harvard, and does not have a ton of lawyers which
> the US has, so how come Toyota makes better cars than GM? How come
> GM's Harvard and Wharton MBAs and lawyers now live on government's
> charity to survive. It is workers, Chinese or American, who drive
> the economy, not the top executives who makes 200 times the workers
> salary. See the problem?]]> Fri, 28 Aug 2009 02:48:46 -0400
You mean Japan is the Asia Pacific version of Alice in Wonderland?

You mean Toyota and Sony's technologies are dreamt up by Mr Watanabe and Mr Tanaka overnight when they saw fairies?

You mean over 80% of ministers in the current Japanese cabinet / opposition politicians are idiotic lawyers having graduated from sandboxes like the University of Tokyo, or passed the 1.7% success rate bar exam (lowest in the world btw)?

You mean industrial revolution on its alone made middle-class people millionaires and entrepreneurs billionaires?

You really should consider joining the law firm Morrison & Forrester, better known by itself and others as MoFo.


On Aug 27 04:54 PM Yaudy wrote:

> Roger, blind faith like yours in Harvard and lawyers is exactly the
> source of America's problems. Japan does not have any school that
> can compare to Harvard, and does not have a ton of lawyers which
> the US has, so how come Toyota makes better cars than GM? How come
> GM's Harvard and Wharton MBAs and lawyers now live on government's
> charity to survive. It is workers, Chinese or American, who drive
> the economy, not the top executives who makes 200 times the workers
> salary. See the problem?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157785-china-exactly-where-japan-was-in-the-1980s?source=feed#comment-646712 646712
What you are proposing, dear Yaudy, is that First World countries like America would have grown rich since 1949 just as quickly WITHOUT Princeton, Yale, Harvard, Silicon Valley and Wall Street. That high-paying jobs could have been replaced by 10,000 McDonald's outlets hiring kids to flip burgers.

The only end result of crazy growth of 20% in 2nd and 3rd tier cities is crazy inflation. Do teach me how, without innovation, to squeeze more productivity out of China's workers when your Walmart Levis jeans are US$8.99.

In baby economists' terms, China has NO tertiary industry. None. What use are lawyers when the government debars them for disturbing Beijing's peace? And what use are bankers when your currency / stock market is closed to the outside world, like Monopoly?

You only need to read my opponent's response below to smell the rot of your argument. Need I say more.

On Aug 25 05:13 AM mna wrote: [excerpt]
[...]
> This kind of thinking is reminiscent of China in the 17th century,
> when their emperors thought they were the center of the world, and
> congratulated themselves on how advanced they were and how they didn't
> need anyone else, as they were the most powerful country on the planet.

]]> Wed, 26 Aug 2009 03:50:38 -0400
What you are proposing, dear Yaudy, is that First World countries like America would have grown rich since 1949 just as quickly WITHOUT Princeton, Yale, Harvard, Silicon Valley and Wall Street. That high-paying jobs could have been replaced by 10,000 McDonald's outlets hiring kids to flip burgers.

The only end result of crazy growth of 20% in 2nd and 3rd tier cities is crazy inflation. Do teach me how, without innovation, to squeeze more productivity out of China's workers when your Walmart Levis jeans are US$8.99.

In baby economists' terms, China has NO tertiary industry. None. What use are lawyers when the government debars them for disturbing Beijing's peace? And what use are bankers when your currency / stock market is closed to the outside world, like Monopoly?

You only need to read my opponent's response below to smell the rot of your argument. Need I say more.

On Aug 25 05:13 AM mna wrote: [excerpt]
[...]
> This kind of thinking is reminiscent of China in the 17th century,
> when their emperors thought they were the center of the world, and
> congratulated themselves on how advanced they were and how they didn't
> need anyone else, as they were the most powerful country on the planet.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157785-china-exactly-where-japan-was-in-the-1980s?source=feed#comment-644724 644724
Time to teach you about natural resources:

The only way that China can grow is by gulping mountains of steel and lakes of oil. What else can you use to feed machines that manufacture and to fill workers' rice bowls (extra virgin olive oil)?

Au contraire, the only way that the real First World can grow is by inventing new technologies, which requires a nanocentimetre of reinforced steel for their Swiss-made heavy duty sketch pens and a pea-sized drop of saffron oil to cleanse the free roaming mind.


On Aug 25 05:13 AM mna wrote:

> Wow... just wow. There's actually people out there who's STILL this
> misguided? Mr Roger Maxims: You sir, have given me a whole new outlook
> on the US. With people still this clueless about the upcoming competition
> we're facing, the nation's absolutely, positively doomed.
>
> This kind of thinking is reminiscent of China in the 17th century,
> when their emperors thought they were the center of the world, and
> congratulated themselves on how advanced they were and how they didn't
> need anyone else, as they were the most powerful country on the planet.
>
>
> Think about that.
>
> On Aug 25 04:04 AM roger maxims wrote:]]> Tue, 25 Aug 2009 05:41:39 -0400
Time to teach you about natural resources:

The only way that China can grow is by gulping mountains of steel and lakes of oil. What else can you use to feed machines that manufacture and to fill workers' rice bowls (extra virgin olive oil)?

Au contraire, the only way that the real First World can grow is by inventing new technologies, which requires a nanocentimetre of reinforced steel for their Swiss-made heavy duty sketch pens and a pea-sized drop of saffron oil to cleanse the free roaming mind.


On Aug 25 05:13 AM mna wrote:

> Wow... just wow. There's actually people out there who's STILL this
> misguided? Mr Roger Maxims: You sir, have given me a whole new outlook
> on the US. With people still this clueless about the upcoming competition
> we're facing, the nation's absolutely, positively doomed.
>
> This kind of thinking is reminiscent of China in the 17th century,
> when their emperors thought they were the center of the world, and
> congratulated themselves on how advanced they were and how they didn't
> need anyone else, as they were the most powerful country on the planet.
>
>
> Think about that.
>
> On Aug 25 04:04 AM roger maxims wrote:]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157785-china-exactly-where-japan-was-in-the-1980s?source=feed#comment-644696 644696
(1) China has no modern technology of its own: (i) space rockets are Russian technologies from 1960s; (ii) automobiles are copied from BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and [your favourite brand]; (iii) drugs are what they are literally - they're killers rather than cures.

(2) Whatever technologies the Japanese, Americans or Germans license China, they range from one generation (in technology) to one decade behind! Reason: national / commercial / self-interest in the real world outside Pyongyang you know baby.

(3) China's best scientists, doctors and mathematicians live next door to you and teaches at Princeton having graduated from Yale and collected a Nobel prize in Stockholm with another planning.

(4) Cultural revolution + 1989 takes 15 years off China's clock whilst the rest of the world thinks about reinventing the telephone, culminating in companies with weird names like Nokia and Ericsson.

(5) As a "consumer" economy, China doesn't care about R&D. All it want is to make peasants rich and bureaucrats richer. Even if it did try, the combination of (2) - (4) above means that its technologies will never make international standards, come hell or high water. How can you get rich selling chow mein and dragon dances?

(6) No country would be willing to contribute its newest technologies in "scientific co-operation" with China, because of national interests.

These six are the very reasons why China has to suck up to the US even under present circumstances. It simply has no way out.

So pack up your optimism, save some US$, buy some more burgers before they are priced in yen or yuan.


On Aug 25 12:03 AM HaavBline wrote:

> Entertaining. But since no country has all items on your list, what's
> your point?
>
> BTW, China does already have your items 4, 5, 6 in some very competitive
> way. So I suggest you come back to check your list at least once
> a year.]]> Tue, 25 Aug 2009 04:04:47 -0400
(1) China has no modern technology of its own: (i) space rockets are Russian technologies from 1960s; (ii) automobiles are copied from BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and [your favourite brand]; (iii) drugs are what they are literally - they're killers rather than cures.

(2) Whatever technologies the Japanese, Americans or Germans license China, they range from one generation (in technology) to one decade behind! Reason: national / commercial / self-interest in the real world outside Pyongyang you know baby.

(3) China's best scientists, doctors and mathematicians live next door to you and teaches at Princeton having graduated from Yale and collected a Nobel prize in Stockholm with another planning.

(4) Cultural revolution + 1989 takes 15 years off China's clock whilst the rest of the world thinks about reinventing the telephone, culminating in companies with weird names like Nokia and Ericsson.

(5) As a "consumer" economy, China doesn't care about R&D. All it want is to make peasants rich and bureaucrats richer. Even if it did try, the combination of (2) - (4) above means that its technologies will never make international standards, come hell or high water. How can you get rich selling chow mein and dragon dances?

(6) No country would be willing to contribute its newest technologies in "scientific co-operation" with China, because of national interests.

These six are the very reasons why China has to suck up to the US even under present circumstances. It simply has no way out.

So pack up your optimism, save some US$, buy some more burgers before they are priced in yen or yuan.


On Aug 25 12:03 AM HaavBline wrote:

> Entertaining. But since no country has all items on your list, what's
> your point?
>
> BTW, China does already have your items 4, 5, 6 in some very competitive
> way. So I suggest you come back to check your list at least once
> a year.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157785-china-exactly-where-japan-was-in-the-1980s?source=feed#comment-642825 642825
China is but a huge consumer economy, akin to the US or Japan or Germany, minus:

(1) the military technologies ($billion stealth jets);
(2) the aeronautical technologies ($billion spaceships / 787s);
(3) the manufacturing technologies (Fanuc - largest manufacturing robot firm in the world, listed in Tokyo, debt free);
(4) the vehicular technologies (Prius and friends);
(5) the environmental technologies (solar panels and nuclear alike);
(6) the pharmaceutical technologies (Tamiflu etc);

and also

(6) artistic / Midas touches (Milan / Paris);
(7) "entertainment / education" films / websites (the unions in California);
(8) justice system to protect foreigners' money; and
(9) currency system to let foreigners TAKE OUT the money they put in;

If such a country were to grow in any meaningful sense, it would be in the American cents...which doesn't mean much anymore. ]]> Mon, 24 Aug 2009 03:21:58 -0400
China is but a huge consumer economy, akin to the US or Japan or Germany, minus:

(1) the military technologies ($billion stealth jets);
(2) the aeronautical technologies ($billion spaceships / 787s);
(3) the manufacturing technologies (Fanuc - largest manufacturing robot firm in the world, listed in Tokyo, debt free);
(4) the vehicular technologies (Prius and friends);
(5) the environmental technologies (solar panels and nuclear alike);
(6) the pharmaceutical technologies (Tamiflu etc);

and also

(6) artistic / Midas touches (Milan / Paris);
(7) "entertainment / education" films / websites (the unions in California);
(8) justice system to protect foreigners' money; and
(9) currency system to let foreigners TAKE OUT the money they put in;

If such a country were to grow in any meaningful sense, it would be in the American cents...which doesn't mean much anymore. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138113-berkshire-hathaway-q1-portfolio-changes-does-it-pay-to-follow-buffett-s-moves?source=feed#comment-510829 510829
Another idiotic comment coming from you: " According to this paper a portfolio that mimicked Buffet’s stock investments would have outperformed S&P 500 by 14.6% annually between 1976 and 2006."

If this was to hold true from 2007 to 2037, Bear Stearns and Lehman would not have failed; GM and Chrysler would not have gone Chap. 11; Citi and Goldman would not have needed government help; and most importantly, you would not be sitting there making knee-jerk comments.]]> Wed, 20 May 2009 05:59:51 -0400
Another idiotic comment coming from you: " According to this paper a portfolio that mimicked Buffet’s stock investments would have outperformed S&P 500 by 14.6% annually between 1976 and 2006."

If this was to hold true from 2007 to 2037, Bear Stearns and Lehman would not have failed; GM and Chrysler would not have gone Chap. 11; Citi and Goldman would not have needed government help; and most importantly, you would not be sitting there making knee-jerk comments.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110521-my-economic-plan?source=feed#comment-336587 336587
If just 10% of Americans implement your Personal Plan and start saving, clear their credit card bills month in month out, then soon enough you won't feel much difference between your country, Japan or Russia anymore.

The reason why novelty companies like Apple can survive is because there are so many card-swipers who hit the limits like they're on a Vegas winning streak. Once domestic consumption slows, US is done for the remainder of the century.

The rest of the world simply postpone their wine and fridge purchases and continue eating their humble sushi, pasta and chow mein as before.]]> Tue, 23 Dec 2008 10:26:29 -0500
If just 10% of Americans implement your Personal Plan and start saving, clear their credit card bills month in month out, then soon enough you won't feel much difference between your country, Japan or Russia anymore.

The reason why novelty companies like Apple can survive is because there are so many card-swipers who hit the limits like they're on a Vegas winning streak. Once domestic consumption slows, US is done for the remainder of the century.

The rest of the world simply postpone their wine and fridge purchases and continue eating their humble sushi, pasta and chow mein as before.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109582-own-gold-time-to-fold?source=feed#comment-333284 333284
1. No return to Bretton Woods

The economies of the G7 and China have been benefiting immensely from the fiat currency standard since its establishment. There is no way that any of them would agree to resume the gold standard and limit their pace of growth to the supply of gold.

2. Gold is sold in US$

If US were to default on its Treasuries, US$ would become worthless. Gold price would rise exponentially to US$1billion / ounce, which is equal to GBP 0 / EUR 0 / JPY 0. Bit of a one-way trip for gold bugs really.

Then again, US would only default on its Treasuries if China refuses to sweep up the freshly printed ones due 2038. (Japan is already downsizing its holding, Europe doesn't care.) China will always be kind to Uncle Sam, not because of the nuclear drone planes, but because US is China's top credit customer. Losing US demand for its Walmart toys means putting back years of growth.

3. Conclusion

Gold will trade in a range no doubt, as EUR/USD, JPY/USD have done this year due to risk aversion. Doubt it will be much higher than $1100 since most mutual and hedge funds (aka the real players) are still stock-focused.

Governments don't want to touch their gold reserves as they are saving the REAL economy with paper money that buys loaves of bread.





]]> Thu, 18 Dec 2008 13:46:43 -0500
1. No return to Bretton Woods

The economies of the G7 and China have been benefiting immensely from the fiat currency standard since its establishment. There is no way that any of them would agree to resume the gold standard and limit their pace of growth to the supply of gold.

2. Gold is sold in US$

If US were to default on its Treasuries, US$ would become worthless. Gold price would rise exponentially to US$1billion / ounce, which is equal to GBP 0 / EUR 0 / JPY 0. Bit of a one-way trip for gold bugs really.

Then again, US would only default on its Treasuries if China refuses to sweep up the freshly printed ones due 2038. (Japan is already downsizing its holding, Europe doesn't care.) China will always be kind to Uncle Sam, not because of the nuclear drone planes, but because US is China's top credit customer. Losing US demand for its Walmart toys means putting back years of growth.

3. Conclusion

Gold will trade in a range no doubt, as EUR/USD, JPY/USD have done this year due to risk aversion. Doubt it will be much higher than $1100 since most mutual and hedge funds (aka the real players) are still stock-focused.

Governments don't want to touch their gold reserves as they are saving the REAL economy with paper money that buys loaves of bread.





]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110512-madoff-scandal-where-was-the-sec?source=feed#comment-332742 332742
Not only Ponzi schemes, but NYSE also falls apart when everyone wants their money out. Particularly borrowed, leveraged money as such.

]]> Thu, 18 Dec 2008 00:26:01 -0500
Not only Ponzi schemes, but NYSE also falls apart when everyone wants their money out. Particularly borrowed, leveraged money as such.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108397-three-financial-stocks-worth-holding?source=feed#comment-320542 320542
Also, I applaud the fact that "the BOA name has significant goodwill". It very much explains the $16.24 portion of its current quote of $16.25, the remaining penny being the cost of the share certificate some may soon want as a momento.

The only case where shares of a company plummeted and now represents a bargain is when the steep fall was caused by margin calls on its shareholders, not the company itself.]]> Thu, 04 Dec 2008 07:02:22 -0500
Also, I applaud the fact that "the BOA name has significant goodwill". It very much explains the $16.24 portion of its current quote of $16.25, the remaining penny being the cost of the share certificate some may soon want as a momento.

The only case where shares of a company plummeted and now represents a bargain is when the steep fall was caused by margin calls on its shareholders, not the company itself.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109037-citi-a-sell-at-3-00?source=feed#comment-320533 320533
As at Dec 2008, Citi's stock price should fall between:

0.98 [2% inflation] x ZERO [2009 loss]
to
1.03 [3% deflation] x ZERO [2009 profit]

which gives a price range of absolute zero to positive zero.

Please don't tell me 3 years or 5 years later Citi will become profitable again. All banks profit on ever-increasing leverage, that's what mortgages and credit cards are all about.

Imagine what would happen if Citi reduces your mortgage by half and your credit card limit by a third now.

To stop the train is hard, to drag it in reverse when there's still coal in the boiler is suicide.
]]> Thu, 04 Dec 2008 06:26:51 -0500
As at Dec 2008, Citi's stock price should fall between:

0.98 [2% inflation] x ZERO [2009 loss]
to
1.03 [3% deflation] x ZERO [2009 profit]

which gives a price range of absolute zero to positive zero.

Please don't tell me 3 years or 5 years later Citi will become profitable again. All banks profit on ever-increasing leverage, that's what mortgages and credit cards are all about.

Imagine what would happen if Citi reduces your mortgage by half and your credit card limit by a third now.

To stop the train is hard, to drag it in reverse when there's still coal in the boiler is suicide.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100462-cramer-s-now-a-market-timer?source=feed#comment-284538 284538
GM (see you in Chapter 11),
Yahoo! (say goodbye to your $1 salary Yang),
Dell (laptops are now cheaper than mobiles, Michael),
Wells Fargo (overdue mortgages / credit cards make you an unprofitable, CCC-grade bank like the japanese gov-funded zombies), and
[enter a value stock that Buffett will buy 10% preferred in].

Honestly, (1) how can GS or GE pay Buffett 10% a year starting 2009 or (2) how they can redeem the preferred in 2011 (earliest possible) except diluting the common by issuing double the preferred quantity at half the price etc. Banks would not want to lend to them after even peeking at their balance sheets.
]]> Fri, 17 Oct 2008 11:10:26 -0400
GM (see you in Chapter 11),
Yahoo! (say goodbye to your $1 salary Yang),
Dell (laptops are now cheaper than mobiles, Michael),
Wells Fargo (overdue mortgages / credit cards make you an unprofitable, CCC-grade bank like the japanese gov-funded zombies), and
[enter a value stock that Buffett will buy 10% preferred in].

Honestly, (1) how can GS or GE pay Buffett 10% a year starting 2009 or (2) how they can redeem the preferred in 2011 (earliest possible) except diluting the common by issuing double the preferred quantity at half the price etc. Banks would not want to lend to them after even peeking at their balance sheets.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99443-quitting-the-hedge-fund-game-mark-sellers?source=feed#comment-279732 279732
1. Seller is getting redemption requests flooding in right this minute, and like all his hedgie peers, is using the one-to-two year period to sell down gradually rather than capitulate. At least he can collect another two years of management fees. Possibly some performance fee @20% of a meagre return.

2. Seller could not figure out the bankruptcy risk of the investment-bank-holdin... he is using as broker dealer and leverage provider. Nor could he identify a reliable one out there. Without leverage, his hedge fund cannot return 65% p.a. or the 20% performance fee for him. Someone who gets paid in billions will be aghast at having to accept paychecks that has only eight zeros after the first digit.

Either way no fund manager, real estate agent or financial planner ever loses out when prices rise or fall. Nor do incompetent civil servants either.]]> Sat, 11 Oct 2008 10:01:54 -0400
1. Seller is getting redemption requests flooding in right this minute, and like all his hedgie peers, is using the one-to-two year period to sell down gradually rather than capitulate. At least he can collect another two years of management fees. Possibly some performance fee @20% of a meagre return.

2. Seller could not figure out the bankruptcy risk of the investment-bank-holdin... he is using as broker dealer and leverage provider. Nor could he identify a reliable one out there. Without leverage, his hedge fund cannot return 65% p.a. or the 20% performance fee for him. Someone who gets paid in billions will be aghast at having to accept paychecks that has only eight zeros after the first digit.

Either way no fund manager, real estate agent or financial planner ever loses out when prices rise or fall. Nor do incompetent civil servants either.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98491-credit-crisis-sharpens-anger-over-ceo-pay?source=feed#comment-273699 273699
And no again, US CEOs can easily go to Japan (Carlos Ghosn for Nissan) or Dubai or London etc to get exactly the same pay, parachutes and pancakes from Mackey Dees. This is because you cannot learn management skills of a multinational with 100k workforce by running a small factory in the countryside or getting an MBA from Harvard. ]]> Sat, 04 Oct 2008 23:39:51 -0400
And no again, US CEOs can easily go to Japan (Carlos Ghosn for Nissan) or Dubai or London etc to get exactly the same pay, parachutes and pancakes from Mackey Dees. This is because you cannot learn management skills of a multinational with 100k workforce by running a small factory in the countryside or getting an MBA from Harvard. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95950-are-we-there-yet-not-even-close?source=feed#comment-273695 273695
Your predictions sound so much like those "oh here's peak oil" or "oh investment banks are trading below book value let's go shopping" analysts folks who are carrying their belongings in carton boxes.

The end of the tunnel is not the when confidence comes back. It is rather when all have lost faith and Buffett, private equity and sovereign funds come in.

Of course, by then you and half the lower Manhanttan expese accounts would have evaporated into the hot air you sold us in the first place.
]]> Sat, 04 Oct 2008 23:21:47 -0400
Your predictions sound so much like those "oh here's peak oil" or "oh investment banks are trading below book value let's go shopping" analysts folks who are carrying their belongings in carton boxes.

The end of the tunnel is not the when confidence comes back. It is rather when all have lost faith and Buffett, private equity and sovereign funds come in.

Of course, by then you and half the lower Manhanttan expese accounts would have evaporated into the hot air you sold us in the first place.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72223-why-buffett-caved-on-general-re-ceo?source=feed#comment-150900 150900
Now that's some economical writing for ya, free-market style.

Seriously though, I think Warren "all-you-can-general-r... Buffett will realise sooner or later that sitting on US$57bn cash is no better than having big stakes in the companies America's most proud of. Come this "credit-squeeze (suisse?), save-some-more, squeeze harder" decade 2008-2018.]]> Tue, 15 Apr 2008 03:09:17 -0400
Now that's some economical writing for ya, free-market style.

Seriously though, I think Warren "all-you-can-general-r... Buffett will realise sooner or later that sitting on US$57bn cash is no better than having big stakes in the companies America's most proud of. Come this "credit-squeeze (suisse?), save-some-more, squeeze harder" decade 2008-2018.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70518-will-the-eur-usd-hit-1-60-this-week?source=feed#comment-134951 134951
And if you're skeptical, they are actually quite honest about these things, since it helps achieve their purpose of manevouring free markets.]]> Tue, 01 Apr 2008 23:32:32 -0400
And if you're skeptical, they are actually quite honest about these things, since it helps achieve their purpose of manevouring free markets.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70518-will-the-eur-usd-hit-1-60-this-week?source=feed#comment-133944 133944
Q. Is Europe in deeper trouble than US amid the credit crunch?

A. Well US banks will write down about 5 - 10 times what Eurobanks will, but let's say we are just as bad because of globalisation.

Q. If we are equally handicapped, whose currency will be more expensive?

A. Um....let me see.... USA - approaching 0%; Europe - keeping 3%+ with equal inflation at both places.

Q. Hey but Eurozone unemployment is so damn high?

A. Well... the French will strike anyways... the Germans will be just as inflexible... the Italians laid back... and more countries like Romania waiting to share wine mountains. Fact is, status quo remained since 1999 when ECU became EUR.

Q. So will we see 1.60 this week?

A. What's the point of this? Same as asking if we will breach 95 yen or 0.95 CHF.

Kathy, we are in a downward spiral. Governments have no interest in intervening currencies because this time it is jobs that are disappearing.]]> Mon, 31 Mar 2008 07:05:39 -0400
Q. Is Europe in deeper trouble than US amid the credit crunch?

A. Well US banks will write down about 5 - 10 times what Eurobanks will, but let's say we are just as bad because of globalisation.

Q. If we are equally handicapped, whose currency will be more expensive?

A. Um....let me see.... USA - approaching 0%; Europe - keeping 3%+ with equal inflation at both places.

Q. Hey but Eurozone unemployment is so damn high?

A. Well... the French will strike anyways... the Germans will be just as inflexible... the Italians laid back... and more countries like Romania waiting to share wine mountains. Fact is, status quo remained since 1999 when ECU became EUR.

Q. So will we see 1.60 this week?

A. What's the point of this? Same as asking if we will breach 95 yen or 0.95 CHF.

Kathy, we are in a downward spiral. Governments have no interest in intervening currencies because this time it is jobs that are disappearing.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70303-dear-citigroup-customer?source=feed#comment-132828 132828
If your interest rate is C, which is the sum of A and B, and the bank charges you more than C - you just take this to court for (1) breach of contract and (2) return of excess interest paid.

But I note that the 6.303% is an APR rate, which, depending on how often they compound the A and B above, may in fact equal C.

Also, just saying "it is very unlikely that it will go down" just means that Citi or the telephone lady personally predicts LIBOR to be going up soon. LIBOR is a fact that neither the customer nor the bank can influence alone.]]> Fri, 28 Mar 2008 03:30:41 -0400
If your interest rate is C, which is the sum of A and B, and the bank charges you more than C - you just take this to court for (1) breach of contract and (2) return of excess interest paid.

But I note that the 6.303% is an APR rate, which, depending on how often they compound the A and B above, may in fact equal C.

Also, just saying "it is very unlikely that it will go down" just means that Citi or the telephone lady personally predicts LIBOR to be going up soon. LIBOR is a fact that neither the customer nor the bank can influence alone.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68781-warning-signs-of-a-modern-depression-see-1990-japan?source=feed#comment-132148 132148
See if you understand this:

1. Nuclear plants cost US$2bn apiece of build but next to nothing to run except the man pressing the buttons, and the dog who stops the man from pressing them. (Not just monetary costs, but also fuel)

2. Coal plants / diesel generators are much cheaper to build but gulps a ridiculous amount of fuel. This is why Chinese factories are working at under-capacity. Not because they are inefficient, but there just isn't enough fuel to go around! Nor can they afford US$2bn nuclear plants - the equivalent of 200 factories @ US$10m.

3. Hydrogen is fine - if we can make it 10 times more efficient soon.

But this is still not the point. Which is...

WE ARE MOVING BACK TO RAIL TRAVEL...VERY HIGH-SPEED RAIL TRAVEL AS SUCH.

TGV, bullet train are going up to 500 km/h. This is just half of 747s at 900km/h, yet when you consider (1) check-in times, (2) commuting time to airports, (3) endless security checks, we are probably head to head. This means that trains which run on electricity will overtake 747s which run on 55,000 gallons of fuel per tank.

===========

Global warming can be a scam, yes, but if it is not we are quite doomed. If you are to choose between (1) a million dollars + peace of mind and (2) two million but melting ice, I think the choice is quite clear.

A ten-year Japanese-style depression would help the world cut down on CO2 ten years - enough for Chinese factories to start shopping for GE nuclear plants.



]]> Wed, 26 Mar 2008 21:53:24 -0400
See if you understand this:

1. Nuclear plants cost US$2bn apiece of build but next to nothing to run except the man pressing the buttons, and the dog who stops the man from pressing them. (Not just monetary costs, but also fuel)

2. Coal plants / diesel generators are much cheaper to build but gulps a ridiculous amount of fuel. This is why Chinese factories are working at under-capacity. Not because they are inefficient, but there just isn't enough fuel to go around! Nor can they afford US$2bn nuclear plants - the equivalent of 200 factories @ US$10m.

3. Hydrogen is fine - if we can make it 10 times more efficient soon.

But this is still not the point. Which is...

WE ARE MOVING BACK TO RAIL TRAVEL...VERY HIGH-SPEED RAIL TRAVEL AS SUCH.

TGV, bullet train are going up to 500 km/h. This is just half of 747s at 900km/h, yet when you consider (1) check-in times, (2) commuting time to airports, (3) endless security checks, we are probably head to head. This means that trains which run on electricity will overtake 747s which run on 55,000 gallons of fuel per tank.

===========

Global warming can be a scam, yes, but if it is not we are quite doomed. If you are to choose between (1) a million dollars + peace of mind and (2) two million but melting ice, I think the choice is quite clear.

A ten-year Japanese-style depression would help the world cut down on CO2 ten years - enough for Chinese factories to start shopping for GE nuclear plants.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/69088-the-fed-underdelivers?source=feed#comment-131018 131018
Alas, the good old aeroplane made by the Wright fellows is but a fuel-gulping monster at 55,000 of thy American gallons full tank. Counting just the 1300 Boeing 747s, that's 71 million in a day of our lord, or ONE billion gallons each fortnight.

Those who would fly after 9/11 came by... in Bear Stearns they buy till the winds blow high.



]]> Tue, 25 Mar 2008 05:57:53 -0400
Alas, the good old aeroplane made by the Wright fellows is but a fuel-gulping monster at 55,000 of thy American gallons full tank. Counting just the 1300 Boeing 747s, that's 71 million in a day of our lord, or ONE billion gallons each fortnight.

Those who would fly after 9/11 came by... in Bear Stearns they buy till the winds blow high.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/69449-bear-stearns-why-it-s-safe-to-bet-against-joe-lewis?source=feed#comment-130475 130475
1. If JPMorgan is Bear Stearns' biggest counterparty, wouldn't it be forced to buy Bear out at any given price? If not JPM will go bankrupt = either a bullet in the stomach or one in the heart.

2. If JPM may fail because of the BSC fiasco, wouldn't GS, MS etc want to jump in and acquire JPM at US$2 a share? Otherwise, as JPM's counterparty they may also face bankruptcy.

3. What is preventing investment banks from going through waves of mega-mergers like automobiles (3 left) and aerospace (1 left) industries?

4. In case i-banks are nationalised and therefore tied to the tighest strait-jackets in terms of leverage, would there be any point at all in their indepedent existence from commercial banks?

5. How is any kind of risk management effective, when on 30 times leverage, the markets you deal in move more than 3.33% a day?

]]> Mon, 24 Mar 2008 02:35:45 -0400
1. If JPMorgan is Bear Stearns' biggest counterparty, wouldn't it be forced to buy Bear out at any given price? If not JPM will go bankrupt = either a bullet in the stomach or one in the heart.

2. If JPM may fail because of the BSC fiasco, wouldn't GS, MS etc want to jump in and acquire JPM at US$2 a share? Otherwise, as JPM's counterparty they may also face bankruptcy.

3. What is preventing investment banks from going through waves of mega-mergers like automobiles (3 left) and aerospace (1 left) industries?

4. In case i-banks are nationalised and therefore tied to the tighest strait-jackets in terms of leverage, would there be any point at all in their indepedent existence from commercial banks?

5. How is any kind of risk management effective, when on 30 times leverage, the markets you deal in move more than 3.33% a day?

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68781-warning-signs-of-a-modern-depression-see-1990-japan?source=feed#comment-128666 128666
You say we will realise the need for alternative energy soon. I agree. And it must be cheap and create little pollution, yes.

How about this: it's already here uncle, called nuclear energy aka the nuke (courtesy Iranian / North Korean scientists)? That takes care of all household / industrial electricity needs.

If North Americans can learn from North Koreans or North Iranians for not driving 300 yards to pick up a soda perhaps global warming will become a joke like Bush also?
]]> Wed, 19 Mar 2008 05:09:44 -0400
You say we will realise the need for alternative energy soon. I agree. And it must be cheap and create little pollution, yes.

How about this: it's already here uncle, called nuclear energy aka the nuke (courtesy Iranian / North Korean scientists)? That takes care of all household / industrial electricity needs.

If North Americans can learn from North Koreans or North Iranians for not driving 300 yards to pick up a soda perhaps global warming will become a joke like Bush also?
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/69088-the-fed-underdelivers?source=feed#comment-128604 128604 seekingalpha.com/artic...

Please also refer to THIS CRAP Ms Kathy Lien wrote moments before the Fed proved all her analysis, predictions and intelligence wrong.

Goldman Sachs would never, ever dare say JPMorgan and friends are counterparties unworthy to deal with, for so long as the sun rises on the right side of the Hudson river. Their greed is to make more money, not eliminate more competitors!

Is this what we get from a 18-year-old graduate of Harvard, Kathy? Ivory tower par excellence from utterly immature baby elephants.


]]> Wed, 19 Mar 2008 00:01:44 -0400 seekingalpha.com/artic...

Please also refer to THIS CRAP Ms Kathy Lien wrote moments before the Fed proved all her analysis, predictions and intelligence wrong.

Goldman Sachs would never, ever dare say JPMorgan and friends are counterparties unworthy to deal with, for so long as the sun rises on the right side of the Hudson river. Their greed is to make more money, not eliminate more competitors!

Is this what we get from a 18-year-old graduate of Harvard, Kathy? Ivory tower par excellence from utterly immature baby elephants.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68964-historic-100bp-cut-from-the-fed-today?source=feed#comment-128045 128045
If Goldman Sachs tells JPMorgan "hey, I don't trust you as counterparty anymore" and JPMorgan tells Citi the same, the whole investment banking industry would go. The big boys know this and will not let it happen.

Instead, they must at least trust those huge commercial banks like Citi and Bank of America who have relatively stable mom and pop savers. None of that crazy TCI, S3 hedge fund stuff.

P.S. I venture that these hedge funds and private equity are bathing in champagne right now as their shorts pay off.



]]> Tue, 18 Mar 2008 06:38:15 -0400
If Goldman Sachs tells JPMorgan "hey, I don't trust you as counterparty anymore" and JPMorgan tells Citi the same, the whole investment banking industry would go. The big boys know this and will not let it happen.

Instead, they must at least trust those huge commercial banks like Citi and Bank of America who have relatively stable mom and pop savers. None of that crazy TCI, S3 hedge fund stuff.

P.S. I venture that these hedge funds and private equity are bathing in champagne right now as their shorts pay off.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68339-6-questions-for-long-term-google-investors?source=feed#comment-127456 127456
Exactly what asset book value has it, or ways to ensure its young talent doesn't walk away when the internet is no longer 'hip'? Better still, what KFC-style proprietary formulas will help Google survive competitors' challenge when the price to enter the market is a forgone MBA at Stanford?]]> Mon, 17 Mar 2008 04:56:25 -0400
Exactly what asset book value has it, or ways to ensure its young talent doesn't walk away when the internet is no longer 'hip'? Better still, what KFC-style proprietary formulas will help Google survive competitors' challenge when the price to enter the market is a forgone MBA at Stanford?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68339-6-questions-for-long-term-google-investors?source=feed#comment-126806 126806
(1) people will pay to download music; and

(2) people will subscribe for an expensive cellular service

to make Apple rich.

I am glad you share the same dream. Good night.]]> Sat, 15 Mar 2008 04:21:38 -0400
(1) people will pay to download music; and

(2) people will subscribe for an expensive cellular service

to make Apple rich.

I am glad you share the same dream. Good night.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68339-6-questions-for-long-term-google-investors?source=feed#comment-126805 126805
I hope you aren't using margin to buy GOOG.

It's a dotcom company you moron. Even taken as an advertising platform like the TV stations, it loses out for want of content (viz. sitcoms, talk shows, news and whatnot). How can Yellow Pages online be the most profitable company in the world?

No idiot, even on your scale, would pay to find out how much lava shot out of some volcano in 1999, right? Well of course you have your beautiful charts to back your story up, but this ain't "The Illustrated Edition of Alice in the Wonderland" I'm afraid.]]> Sat, 15 Mar 2008 04:20:18 -0400
I hope you aren't using margin to buy GOOG.

It's a dotcom company you moron. Even taken as an advertising platform like the TV stations, it loses out for want of content (viz. sitcoms, talk shows, news and whatnot). How can Yellow Pages online be the most profitable company in the world?

No idiot, even on your scale, would pay to find out how much lava shot out of some volcano in 1999, right? Well of course you have your beautiful charts to back your story up, but this ain't "The Illustrated Edition of Alice in the Wonderland" I'm afraid.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68161-asking-too-much-from-the-fed?source=feed#comment-125832 125832
Instead, I have my popcorn ready to watch "America - the land of the rising sons of George Bush Sr."

As of today, Ken Watanabe ("Last Samurai") has agreed to help Spielberg make this 4-hour film focusing on a stagant, decaying big apple for 10 years. ]]> Wed, 12 Mar 2008 23:47:36 -0400
Instead, I have my popcorn ready to watch "America - the land of the rising sons of George Bush Sr."

As of today, Ken Watanabe ("Last Samurai") has agreed to help Spielberg make this 4-hour film focusing on a stagant, decaying big apple for 10 years. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68161-asking-too-much-from-the-fed?source=feed#comment-125633 125633
1. US inflation for this year is 10%. Oil is US$ denominated.

2. Oil price rises 10% as a result.

3. Euro rises 10% but Yen rises only 8%. You cannot have identical appreciation rates across the board because of interest rate differentials.

4. Europe has lower inflation but less competitive exports; Japan has higher inflation but more competitive exports.

5. Both lose out.]]> Wed, 12 Mar 2008 14:10:39 -0400
1. US inflation for this year is 10%. Oil is US$ denominated.

2. Oil price rises 10% as a result.

3. Euro rises 10% but Yen rises only 8%. You cannot have identical appreciation rates across the board because of interest rate differentials.

4. Europe has lower inflation but less competitive exports; Japan has higher inflation but more competitive exports.

5. Both lose out.]]>