roger maxims

Are We There Yet? Not Even Close.

How did you figure out the 60-day rule? Aptly-named Bear Stearns (Mar 18) to Lehman Brothers (Sep 15) is more like 6 months, Sunshine.

Your predictions sound so much like those "oh here's peak oil" or "oh investment banks are trading below book value let's go shopping" analysts folks who are carrying their belongings in carton boxes.

The end of the tunnel is not the when confidence comes back. It is rather when all have lost faith and Buffett, private equity and sovereign funds come in.

Of course, by then you and half the lower Manhanttan expese accounts would have evaporated into the hot air you sold us in the first place.

Warning Signs of a Modern Depression: See 1990 Japan

Hey unclebones

See if you understand this:

1. Nuclear plants cost US$2bn apiece of build but next to nothing to run except the man pressing the buttons, and the dog who stops the man from pressing them. (Not just monetary costs, but also fuel)

2. Coal plants / diesel generators are much cheaper to build but gulps a ridiculous amount of fuel. This is why Chinese factories are working at under-capacity. Not because they are inefficient, but there just isn't enough fuel to go around! Nor can they afford US$2bn nuclear plants - the equivalent of 200 factories @ US$10m.

3. Hydrogen is fine - if we can make it 10 times more efficient soon.

But this is still not the point. Which is...

WE ARE MOVING BACK TO RAIL TRAVEL...VERY HIGH-SPEED RAIL TRAVEL AS SUCH.

TGV, bullet train are going up to 500 km/h. This is just half of 747s at 900km/h, yet when you consider (1) check-in times, (2) commuting time to airports, (3) endless security checks, we are probably head to head. This means that trains which run on electricity will overtake 747s which run on 55,000 gallons of fuel per tank.

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Global warming can be a scam, yes, but if it is not we are quite doomed. If you are to choose between (1) a million dollars + peace of mind and (2) two million but melting ice, I think the choice is quite clear.

A ten-year Japanese-style depression would help the world cut down on CO2 ten years - enough for Chinese factories to start shopping for GE nuclear plants.

Warning Signs of a Modern Depression: See 1990 Japan

Hey unclebones

You say we will realise the need for alternative energy soon. I agree. And it must be cheap and create little pollution, yes.

How about this: it's already here uncle, called nuclear energy aka the nuke (courtesy Iranian / North Korean scientists)? That takes care of all household / industrial electricity needs.

If North Americans can learn from North Koreans or North Iranians for not driving 300 yards to pick up a soda perhaps global warming will become a joke like Bush also?