I have been trading forex and commodities for 6 years, and i am mainly chartist, my interest has been trying to juxtapose the classical and modern technical tools to analyze the markets and to determine the exact entry and exit points.
Founder of "The Contrarian", a premium research service, featuring the "Bet The Farm" Portfolio. Actively investing since 1995, I have soared like an eagle, and been unmercifully humbled by the markets. Achieved positive returns in 2008, and turned an account with $60,310 on 1/1/2009 into an account with $3,177,937 on 11/30/2009. My best years have been 1995-2003, 2008-2012, and 2016-????. My worst years were 2013-2015. I believe inflation is coming, and we are at an inflection point in the markets.
Twenty year career as an investment analyst, investor, portfolio manager, consultant, and writer. Founder of Koldus Contrarian Investments, Ltd, which was incorporated in the spring of 2009. Dyed in the wool contrarian investor, who has learned, the hard way, that a good contrarian is only contrarian 20% of the time, but being right at key inflection points is the key to meaningful wealth creation in the markets. I believe we are near a meaningful inflection point, perhaps the biggest one yet, for the third time in the past 15 years.
Historically, I have had huge wins and impressive losses based on a concentrated, contrarian strategy. Trying to keep the good while filtering out the bad.
Seeking to run an all weather portfolio with minimal volatility and index overlays to capture my strategic and tactical recommendations along with a concentrated best ideas portfolio, which is my bread and butter, but the volatility only makes it suitable for a small piece of an investor's overall portfolio. The following are a couple of my favorite investment quotes.
"Life and investing are long ballgames." Julian Robertson
"A diamond is a chunk of coal that is made good under pressure."
"Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world." Albert Einstein
I’ve been on top of the world, and the world has been on top of me. I have learned to enjoy the perspective from each view, and use opportunities to persistently acquire knowledge, and enjoy the company of those around me, especially loved ones, family, and friends.
At heart, I am a market historian with an unrivaled passion for the capital markets. I have had a long history and specialization with concentrated positions and options trading. Made money in 2008 with a net long portfolio, deploying capital in some of the market's darkest hours into long positions including purchases of American Express, Atlas Energy, Crosstex, First Industrial Real Estate, General Growth Properties, Genworth, Macquarie Infrastructure, Ruth Chris Steakhouse, and Vornado near their lows. Shorting, hedging, and option strategies also helped me in 2007 and 2009, and these are skills that I have developed ever since I started trading heavily in 1996.I enjoy reading, accumulating knowledge, and putting this knowledge to work in the active capital markets, learning lessons along the way.To this day, I continue to learn, and some of these learning lessons have been excruciatingly difficult ones, especially over the past several years, as I made mistakes allocating capital, including a sizable portion of my own capital (I always invest alongside my clients), to commodity related stocks. While all commodity related stocks have struggled since April of 2011, coal companies, which attracted me due to their extremely cheap valuations, and out-of-favor status (I am a strong believer in behavioral finance alongside fundamentals and technicals) have been the worst investing mistake of my career. The focus on the commodity arena has been the biggest mistake of my investment career thus far, yet in its aftermath, I see tremendous opportunity, even larger in scope than the fortuitous 2008/2009 environment.The capital that I accumulated and the confidence gained in navigating the treacherous investment waters of 2008 gave me the confidence to launch my own investment firm in the spring of 2009, right before the ultimate lows in the stock market. At the time I was working as a senior analyst at one of the largest RIA's in the country, and I felt strongly that the market environment was the best time since 1974/1975 to start an investment firm.
Prior to starting my firm, I was a senior analyst for three different firms over approximately 10 years (Charles Schwab, Redwood, Oxford), moving up in responsibility and scope at each stop along my journey. Since I was a paperboy, I have always had an interest in the investment markets. I love researching and finding opportunities. I am a Chartered Financial Analyst, CFA, as well as a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst, CAIA. After starting in the teaching program at Ball State University, I switched to a career in finance when I turned a small student loan into a substantial amount of capital. I graduated summa cum laude with a degree in finance from Ball State.
Full disclosure, I am not currently a registered investment advisor, though I did serve in this capacity from 2009-2014, while owning Koldus Contrarian Investments, Ltd. Additionally, I held various securities licenses from 2000-2014, without a single complaint filed, and I continue to hold industry designations. At the end of 2014, I voluntarily let my state registration expire, as I transitioned the business to a different structure. Prior to this, I had passed, and held, various securities exams and licenses, including the Series 7, Series 63, and Series 65 exams, in addition to others, alongside my CFA and CAIA designations. Unfortunately, I did not file the proper paperwork to withdraw my state registration, and I did not disclose a personal arrangement, and subsequent civil case, between myself and a former close personal friend and client, that was initiated in 2011. I was unaware that I was required to disclose these items, and my securities attorney, at the time, did not advise me to do so. Previously, I had managed a portfolio for this gentleman, and we had taken an investment of approximately $7 million in 2009, and grown it to over $25 million at the beginning of 2012. After a difficult year of performance, an employee of the firm I owned, and friend, resigned in early 2013, and took the aforementioned client to a competing firm. As a result of not filing the proper paperwork, I agreed to a settlement, with a potential $2500 fine in the future, depending on if I choose to reapply to be a non-exempt advisor.
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Marc Chandler has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for 25 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. A prolific writer and speaker he appears regularly on CNBC and has spoken for the Foreign Policy Association. In addition to being quoted in the financial press daily, Chandler has been published in the Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, and the Washington Post. In 2009 Chandler was named a Business Visionary by Forbes.
Marc's commentary can be found at his blog (www.marctomarket.com) and twitter www.twitter.com/marcmakingsense
Scott Grannis was Chief Economist from 1989 to 2007 at Western Asset Management Company, a Pasadena-based manager of fixed-income funds for institutional investors around the globe. He was a member of Western's Investment Strategy Committee, was responsible for developing the firm's domestic and international outlook, and provided consultation and advice on investment and asset allocation strategies to CFOs, Treasurers, and pension fund managers. He specialized in analysis of Federal Reserve policy and interest rate forecasting, and spearheaded the firm's research into Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). Prior to joining Western Asset, he was Senior Economist at the Claremont Economics Institute, an economic forecasting and consulting service headed by John Rutledge, from 1980 to 1986. From 1986 to 1989, he was Principal at Leland O'Brien Rubinstein Associates, a financial services firm that specialized in sophisticated hedging strategies for institutional investors.
Visit his blog: Calafia Beach Pundit (http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/)
Kevin is the CEO and founder of Blue Water Capital Advisors. He is involved in all aspects of the business, including portfolio management, financial advisory services, team management and business development, and he is Chairman of the Investment Committee. Kevin is an experienced speaker and is available (under certain conditions) by request.
Kevin brings a unique perspective to wealth and risk management that is very intuitive and measured. Clients are confident in his abilities and trust that their assets are managed by the best in the business. Although he has been a leader within the regional wealth management industry for the majority of the last two decades, it is not his first career. He was a petroleum geologist and academic research scientist for 17 years in his first career. Kevin’s keen sense of risk-reward dynamics was developed during his geological career when he served as an exploration team leader and senior manager in the oil and gas exploration business. He drilled over 100 wells on his own geological interpretations and found millions of barrels of oil. This was a very high risk kind of business, and Kevin learned a great deal about how risk really works from his experiences in exploration geology.
He was also a professor at The University of New Hampshire and Bryn Mawr College for several years and has published 11 papers in international scientific journals and books. Highlights of Kevin’s geological career include surviving a violent well blowout, working as a consultant to Phillips Petroleum, Texaco, Exxon, and numerous independent firms, acting as a Principal Investigator on a dinosaur dig in Montana, diving Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, teaching and advising students, receiving numerous research awards and grants, and conducting funded scientific research on sedimentology, paleoceanography, paleoclimatology, geochemistry, and global plate tectonics.
Kevin left his geology career when the global oil price collapse finally caught up to him in 1992. He went into the financial advising industry because his father had been a nationally-ranked leader in that field with a major national firm, so he felt comfortable with making the transition. Over the years he was awarded the Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC) designation and has completed about half of the coursework for a Master’s degree in Financial Services. Kevin served as a Trust Officer and Vice President for a major Midwestern regional bank for seven years, and served as a Senior Vice President at National Bank of Commerce in Duluth for four years. He was a member and board member of the Arrowhead Estate Planning Council for a number of years. He has a refined sense of the big economic picture that is grounded in his ability to differentiate meaningful information from “noise,” as he once did while working in science and petroleum geology. Kevin is the principal shareholder of Blue Water Capital Advisors, LLC.
Perhaps more than any other time in the last six decades, the fate of markets is inextricably intertwined with the ebb and flow of geopolitics. From the ECB's attempts to use the central bank's balance sheet to influence political outcomes across the eurozone to Saudi Arabia's efforts to transform the kingdom's influence over crude prices into an instrument of foreign policy, it's become increasingly clear that one simply cannot fully comprehend market movements without a thorough understanding of concurrent political outcomes. Drawing on extensive experience in both politics and finance, Heisenberg will help demystify a world in which investors can no longer hope to conceptualize markets as existing in anything that even approximates a vacuum. "I am the one who knocks."
Janus Capital Group Inc. (JCG) is a global investment firm dedicated to delivering better outcomes for clients through a broad range of actively managed investment solutions, including fixed income, equity, alternative and multi-asset class strategies. It does so through a number of distinct investment platforms, including investment teams within Janus Capital Management LLC (Janus), as well as INTECH Investment Management LLC (INTECH) and Perkins Investment Management LLC (Perkins), in addition to a suite of exchange-traded products under the VelocityShares brand as well as global macro fixed income products under the Kapstream brand. Each team brings distinct asset class expertise, perspective, style-specific experience and a disciplined approach to risk. Investment strategies are offered through open-end funds domiciled in both the U.S. and offshore, as well as through separately managed accounts, collective investment trusts and exchange-traded products.
Ben S. Bernanke is a Distinguished Fellow in Residence with the Economic Studies Program at the Brookings Institution. From February 2006 through January 2014, he was Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Dr. Bernanke also served as Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, the System's principal monetary policymaking body.
Before his appointment as Chairman, Dr. Bernanke was Chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, from June 2005 to January 2006. He had already served the Federal Reserve System in several roles. He was a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from 2002 to 2005; a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Banks of Philadelphia (1987-89), Boston (1989-90), and New York (1990-91, 1994-96); and a member of the Academic Advisory Panel at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (1990-2002).
From 1994 to 1996, Dr. Bernanke was the Class of 1926 Professor of Economics and Public Affairs at Princeton University. He was the Howard Harrison and Gabrielle Snyder Beck Professor of Economics and Public Affairs and Chair of the Economics Department at the university from 1996 to 2002. Dr. Bernanke had been a Professor of Economics and Public Affairs at Princeton since 1985.
Before arriving at Princeton, Dr. Bernanke was an Associate Professor of Economics (1983-85) and an Assistant Professor of Economics (1979-83) at the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University. His teaching career also included serving as a Visiting Professor of Economics at New York University (1993) and at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1989-90).
Dr. Bernanke has published many articles on a wide variety of economic issues, including monetary policy and macroeconomics, and he is the author of several scholarly books and two textbooks. He has held a Guggenheim Fellowship and a Sloan Fellowship, and he is a Fellow of the Econometric Society and of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. Dr. Bernanke served as the Director of the Monetary Economics Program of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and as a member of the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee. In July 2001, he was appointed Editor of the American Economic Review. Dr. Bernanke's work with civic and professional groups includes having served two terms as a member of the Montgomery Township (N.J.) Board of Education.
Dr. Bernanke was born in December 1953 in Augusta, Georgia, and grew up in Dillon, South Carolina. He received a B.A. in economics in 1975 from Harvard University (summa cum laude) and a Ph.D. in economics in 1979 from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Dr. Bernanke is married and has two children.
Bill Gross is a Portfolio Manager responsible for managing the Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, and all related portfolios, and leading efforts to build out Janus' global macro fixed income capabilities. He also serves as an integral member of the Janus Capital Group Global Allocation Committee focused on the expansion of Janus' global asset allocation business. He is based in Newport Beach, California. Mr. Gross co-founded PIMCO in 1971 and served as managing director and Chief Investment Officer until joining Janus in 2014. Throughout his career, Mr. Gross has received numerous awards including Morningstar Fixed Income Manager of the Decade for 2000-2009 and Fixed Income Manager of the Year for 1998, 2000 and 2007. He became the first portfolio manager inducted into the Fixed Income Analysts Society’s Hall of Fame in 1996 and received the Bond Market Association’s Distinguished Service Award in 2000. In 2011, Institutional Investor magazine awarded him the Money Management Lifetime Achievement Award. He is a renowned expert within the bond market and is at the forefront of thought leadership on the subject of fixed income investing. He is also author of the books, Everything You’ve Heard About Investing is Wrong and Bill Gross on Investing.
Mr. Gross holds an undergraduate degree from Duke University and an MBA from the Anderson School of Management at the University of California, Los Angeles. He has 44 years of financial industry experience.
Dr. El-Erian is Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz and member of its International Executive Committee. He chairs President Obama's Global Development Council, is a Financial Times Contributing Editor, a Bloomberg View columnist and author of the NYT/WSJ best seller "When Markets Collide."
Dr. El-Erian formerly served as CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO, the global investment management company. He re-joined PIMCO at the end of 2007 after serving for two years as president and CEO of Harvard Management Company, the entity that manages Harvard’s endowment and related accounts.
Dr. El-Erian also served as a member of the faculty of Harvard Business School. He first joined PIMCO in 1999 and was a senior member of PIMCO's portfolio management and investment strategy group.
Before coming to PIMCO, Dr. El-Erian was a managing director at Salomon Smith Barney/Citigroup in London and before that, he spent 15 years at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C.
Dr. El-Erian has published widely on international economic and finance topics. His book, "When Markets Collide," won the Financial Times/Goldman Sachs 2008 Business Book of the Year and was named a book of the year by The Economist and one of the best business books of all time by the Independent (UK). He was named to Foreign Policy’s list of “Top 100 Global Thinkers” for 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012.
Dr. El-Erian has served on several boards and committees, including the U.S. Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, the International Center for Research on Women, the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the IMF's Committee of Eminent Persons. He is currently a board member of the NBER, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Cambridge in America. He chairs the Microsoft Investment Advisory Board.
He holds a master's degree and doctorate (economics) from Oxford and received his bachelor and master degrees from Cambridge. He is an Honorary Fellow of Queens' College, Cambridge University.
I am the founder and director of three companies: Euro Pacific Capital (www.europac.net), a full service, registered broker-dealer and RIA which specializes in foreign securities; Euro Pacific Precious Metals (www.europacmetals.com), a gold & silver coin and bullion dealer; and Euro Pacific Asset Management (www.europacificfunds.com), a fund management company that is building a family of mutual funds based on my economic philosophy.
I am most well-known for accurately and publicly predicting the collapse of the housing and credit markets, the subprime crisis, and the increasing price of gold relative to the US dollar, resulting in the viral YouTube video "Peter Schiff Was Right."
I fly around the country and the world speaking to diverse groups, from academic conferences to Tea Party rallies. I have also appeared regularly on cable news stations since the mid-2000s trying to warn people of the impending economic collapse brought on by destructive fiscal and economic policy in Washington.
To that end, I published my first book, "Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse," in early 2007, predicting the 2008 economic crisis while the mainstream commentators were saying it was impossible. Then, at the height of the crisis, I released "The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets," in which I showed readers how to help protect their finances in turbulent times. I've written updated versions of both Crash Proof and The Little Book since then, talking about how my predictions fared and why the worst of the crash is still ahead of us. I also wrote a book with my brother based on a popular comic book my dad wrote in the '70s. "How an Economy Grows and Why It Crashes" is an illustrated fable that starts with three guys on an island and uses allegory to explain exactly how we got into our current mess.
In the 2010 election season, I ran for the US Senate seat of retiring Senator Chris Dodd in my home state of Connecticut in order to bring attention to the mounting problems in this country. While I did not win the seat, my message of fiscal and monetary sanity was brought to a new audience of voters and political leaders.
I've had a regular video blog on YouTube since 2009, called The Schiff Report (www.youtube.com/user/SchiffReport) and, after giving up my long-running Wall Street Unspun podcast, I am now the host of a nightly radio show called The Peter Schiff Show (www.schiffradio.com).
CFA Institute is a global community of more than 100,000 investment professionals working to build an investment industry where investors’ interests come first, financial markets function at their best, and economies grow.