Brice Timmons's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/163046/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/126165-george-soros-reflexivity-and-market-reversals?source=feed#comment-427679 427679
The problem with the thesis is the statement "Consequently, when all participants act rationally, free markets and the economy are stable."

This subsequent statement is missing a fundamental premise. The economy would only be stable where investors act rationally based on perfect information. In an imperfect information environment investors may act rationally in response to their subjective view of an economic situation while still acting irrationally if an objective and omniscient view were available.

Thus, transparency and policing of price manipulation are key to maintaining a stable market. They are also virtually impossible to achieve. There will always be an Enron and those best able to spot price manipulation will always have incentives to do it themselves. Worse still, markets will still be plagued with irrational behavior which will influence actual outcomes and, through them, rational behavior.

Soros makes money because he understands that economics is not about math, but about the behavior of a group of mammals who happen to do some math.]]> Mon, 16 Mar 2009 11:33:29 -0400
The problem with the thesis is the statement "Consequently, when all participants act rationally, free markets and the economy are stable."

This subsequent statement is missing a fundamental premise. The economy would only be stable where investors act rationally based on perfect information. In an imperfect information environment investors may act rationally in response to their subjective view of an economic situation while still acting irrationally if an objective and omniscient view were available.

Thus, transparency and policing of price manipulation are key to maintaining a stable market. They are also virtually impossible to achieve. There will always be an Enron and those best able to spot price manipulation will always have incentives to do it themselves. Worse still, markets will still be plagued with irrational behavior which will influence actual outcomes and, through them, rational behavior.

Soros makes money because he understands that economics is not about math, but about the behavior of a group of mammals who happen to do some math.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108689-who-says-we-re-not-in-a-real-recession?source=feed#comment-319044 319044 Tue, 02 Dec 2008 13:12:52 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/105047-be-very-afraid-of-deflation?source=feed#comment-301992 301992 Mon, 10 Nov 2008 11:50:21 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/102993-the-pivot-point-will-likely-be-election-based?source=feed#comment-294408 294408
Increasing burdens on directors and CEOs while simultaneously decreasing their ability to assert the business judgment rule as a defense in shareholder derivative suits seems like government trying to tell officers and directors how to run a company. That's heavy-handed and requires massive government oversight. Foolish.

We know from recent experience that Republicans will not regulate smart. We believe that the Democrats are as bad at business as they were in the 70's and 80's. Maybe they are, but maybe they can learn to regulate smart instead of regulating more.]]> Thu, 30 Oct 2008 12:45:06 -0400
Increasing burdens on directors and CEOs while simultaneously decreasing their ability to assert the business judgment rule as a defense in shareholder derivative suits seems like government trying to tell officers and directors how to run a company. That's heavy-handed and requires massive government oversight. Foolish.

We know from recent experience that Republicans will not regulate smart. We believe that the Democrats are as bad at business as they were in the 70's and 80's. Maybe they are, but maybe they can learn to regulate smart instead of regulating more.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99711-welcome-to-the-google-economy?source=feed#comment-281492 281492
Networks of pure information have the bonus of being exceptionally flexible, but there is still a hardware infrastructure underlying every scrap of code in the world. "Stuff" isn't bad, but the centralized, unwieldy networks that disseminate its true value (utility) are inefficient monsters. Franchising everything, possibly even down to manufacturing, (like the note on "linking" above) is the way to go.

Making networks that are able to shed parts and extract residual value after the consumer gets his maximum utility from a product, that's the future of "stuff."]]> Mon, 13 Oct 2008 14:50:00 -0400
Networks of pure information have the bonus of being exceptionally flexible, but there is still a hardware infrastructure underlying every scrap of code in the world. "Stuff" isn't bad, but the centralized, unwieldy networks that disseminate its true value (utility) are inefficient monsters. Franchising everything, possibly even down to manufacturing, (like the note on "linking" above) is the way to go.

Making networks that are able to shed parts and extract residual value after the consumer gets his maximum utility from a product, that's the future of "stuff."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99076-home-ownership-the-ideal-that-refuses-to-die?source=feed#comment-277101 277101
Where persons are stable and have no tendency towards moving, home ownership seems to be an ideal situation. In this situation the utility value of the home combined with costs of moving and intangible personal value will tend to outstrip market value. Thus, there is less tendency toward speculation. Of course, how to determine this is the question.]]> Wed, 08 Oct 2008 14:39:33 -0400
Where persons are stable and have no tendency towards moving, home ownership seems to be an ideal situation. In this situation the utility value of the home combined with costs of moving and intangible personal value will tend to outstrip market value. Thus, there is less tendency toward speculation. Of course, how to determine this is the question.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98860-it-s-the-capital-not-liquidity-stupid?source=feed#comment-275733 275733 Tue, 07 Oct 2008 11:09:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98669-current-financial-crisis-is-a-black-swan?source=feed#comment-274924 274924
A black swan is caused by a truly random series of unpredictable events leading to some consequence. Some economists have been warning about this since the Federal Reserve Act, more since the fall of Bretton-Woods, many more since Volker left his post, and a large minority since housing prices started to look like a logarithmic scale. Black swan my ass. ]]> Mon, 06 Oct 2008 14:19:57 -0400
A black swan is caused by a truly random series of unpredictable events leading to some consequence. Some economists have been warning about this since the Federal Reserve Act, more since the fall of Bretton-Woods, many more since Volker left his post, and a large minority since housing prices started to look like a logarithmic scale. Black swan my ass. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97372-barney-frank-s-money-quote?source=feed#comment-265058 265058
F
The Bailout]]> Thu, 25 Sep 2008 14:26:00 -0400
F
The Bailout]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97381-congress-please-don-t-rush-the-bailout-plan?source=feed#comment-264956 264956
I've been emailing a friend in Congress all week with this precise sentiment. Unfortunately, he doesn't sit on any of the relevant committees. :-(

My fear is that there is little understanding of this issue on the hill. People often expect that lawmakers are usually intelligent and at least have intelligent people working under them. This is a) not always true, and b) even if true does not guarantee understanding of a specific discipline. Congress is particularly susceptible to panic when people like Paulson and Bernanke yell "Fire!".

These two are behaving like brokers cold calling Congress for a "once in a lifetime opportunity." Treasury should be presenting specific findings and a specific plan, not this absurd power grab.

I especially like one point in this article: foreign investors and private equity. Let's take advantage of the preposterously low dollar and get some foreign capital infused into the market. Private equity firms of late have demonstrated a drive to turn around companies and look for long-term solvency and profitability. We could use some focused, hands-on ownership on Wall St. right now.

]]> Thu, 25 Sep 2008 12:48:34 -0400
I've been emailing a friend in Congress all week with this precise sentiment. Unfortunately, he doesn't sit on any of the relevant committees. :-(

My fear is that there is little understanding of this issue on the hill. People often expect that lawmakers are usually intelligent and at least have intelligent people working under them. This is a) not always true, and b) even if true does not guarantee understanding of a specific discipline. Congress is particularly susceptible to panic when people like Paulson and Bernanke yell "Fire!".

These two are behaving like brokers cold calling Congress for a "once in a lifetime opportunity." Treasury should be presenting specific findings and a specific plan, not this absurd power grab.

I especially like one point in this article: foreign investors and private equity. Let's take advantage of the preposterously low dollar and get some foreign capital infused into the market. Private equity firms of late have demonstrated a drive to turn around companies and look for long-term solvency and profitability. We could use some focused, hands-on ownership on Wall St. right now.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96723-what-effect-will-hyperinflation-have?source=feed#comment-261748 261748 Mon, 22 Sep 2008 14:39:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/96033-financial-crisis-this-is-the-real-deal?source=feed#comment-258071 258071 ]]> Thu, 18 Sep 2008 12:15:53 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93386-the-election-s-impact-on-the-market?source=feed#comment-242752 242752 Sun, 31 Aug 2008 15:42:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/73170-are-central-banks-out-of-their-minds?source=feed#comment-154417 154417
...and complex economic collapse [is overly generous to our central banker friends.] ]]> Mon, 21 Apr 2008 22:03:26 -0400
...and complex economic collapse [is overly generous to our central banker friends.] ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73170-are-central-banks-out-of-their-minds?source=feed#comment-154415 154415 Mon, 21 Apr 2008 22:01:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/71219-payrolls-drop-and-you-ain-t-seen-nothin-yet?source=feed#comment-136588 136588
Thanks, Kathy, for doing a great job of explaining the data objectively. ]]> Fri, 04 Apr 2008 12:28:05 -0400
Thanks, Kathy, for doing a great job of explaining the data objectively. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68454-morningstar-s-vastly-superior-etf-research?source=feed#comment-126621 126621 Fri, 14 Mar 2008 14:42:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67767-repurchase-agreements-and-covert-nationalization?source=feed#comment-125586 125586
It's incongruous to define a T-bill as an "IOU" from the government and subsequently state that the government "hasn't gone any further into debt." Further, at the rate this government spending without generating revenues, it's going to have to get a Providian card.

Further, what if the "Chinese and Japanese taxpayers" balk? China's domestic market has been on such an uptick over the past few years that it has already begun to make up the shortfall in U.S. consumption. What happens when that natural process prompts a rise in the price of finished goods while the U.S. simultaneously deals with double-digit inflation rates? What if they decide to start diversifying their reserves away from dollar-based assets? Not an unreasonable move as the generation of bankers from the Bretton-Woods era retire to be replaced by people who don't obsess over dollars and the Euro forges ahead.

Managing from the asset side of the sheet can still produce inflation, especially in a world with virtually nothing blocking capital mobility. If banks swap T-bills for currency from abroad and then employ that currency domestically, the money supply has still increased domestically, if not internationally. I can't think of any particular reason that inflation has to be limited to a specific currency rather than a geographic region, just as commodities can fluctuate in value against multiple currencies or just against one and can vary region to region.]]> Wed, 12 Mar 2008 12:16:53 -0400
It's incongruous to define a T-bill as an "IOU" from the government and subsequently state that the government "hasn't gone any further into debt." Further, at the rate this government spending without generating revenues, it's going to have to get a Providian card.

Further, what if the "Chinese and Japanese taxpayers" balk? China's domestic market has been on such an uptick over the past few years that it has already begun to make up the shortfall in U.S. consumption. What happens when that natural process prompts a rise in the price of finished goods while the U.S. simultaneously deals with double-digit inflation rates? What if they decide to start diversifying their reserves away from dollar-based assets? Not an unreasonable move as the generation of bankers from the Bretton-Woods era retire to be replaced by people who don't obsess over dollars and the Euro forges ahead.

Managing from the asset side of the sheet can still produce inflation, especially in a world with virtually nothing blocking capital mobility. If banks swap T-bills for currency from abroad and then employ that currency domestically, the money supply has still increased domestically, if not internationally. I can't think of any particular reason that inflation has to be limited to a specific currency rather than a geographic region, just as commodities can fluctuate in value against multiple currencies or just against one and can vary region to region.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67767-repurchase-agreements-and-covert-nationalization?source=feed#comment-125549 125549 ]]> Wed, 12 Mar 2008 10:50:38 -0400 ]]>