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supershort
114 Comments
Three Reasons Solar Sell-off May Be in Early Innings
Solarfun's Huge Run: Time To Lock in Solar Profits
Solarfun's Huge Run: Time To Lock in Solar Profits
There is nothing wrong with shorts or shorters. I have lost plenty of money by going long and then dollar cost averaging down, buying the dips blah blah blah. It never worked well for me. Shorting overpriced, overhyped pigs like in the solar industry has been very good for me. And it should be good for you also, unless of course you believe in the tooth fairy and think any company can support these liudicrous p/e ratios. Don't quote forward because that means squat and that is why these are the perfect shorts, one miss and these will crumble.
But now truly for the truth:
1. There will have to be a trillion dollar bailout of the financial sector, maybe more. Worldwide, the financial mess has writedowns of just over 600 billion. The period in question has 7 trillion in "loans" well, with falling house prices (today), high unemployment, hard money loans, look for a malestorm and a trillion dollar bailout of Freddie and frannie very soon. Congress will not have the money to throw at this feel good expensive warm and fuzzy farce. So the tax credits will be reduced. It is enevitable. That is why it hasn't cleared congress again. They are waiting out the financial storm that is building even more.
2. Solar is not a stand alone alternative energy. It requires a complete back up of conventional power, something that will work when the demand goes up. Solar plants like the 20 sq mile project that was recently announced will not be built. Dow you understand how much land it takes up and it cannot stand alone? It is a travesty if this much land gets used for such a waste of natural resources. The EPA will never let this happen. They will be killing scorpions, coyotes, rattlesnakes and other animals in a large scale and for what? to power just a few hundred thousand homes. I think all the nations coal and nuclear power plants occupy less land than this absurd project.
3. The insiders have been selling. What does that tell you? These guys obviously don't think it's going to double or tripple in the near term, or else they would hold. Cypress itself dumped 2.5 million shares right after this bogus announcement. The SEC should look into this. This is truly criminal, not the shorts. Ignorant people like to scapegoat and the shorts are the goat of the day when we are the ones that keep everyone honest.
4. Taking profits is what trading is all about. The author has given very good advice which you longs are greedy and still trying to pump. Just as it's wrong to yell fire in a crowed theater it is also illegal to yell "free beer" outside the theater to have everyone rush in.
That my friend is the truth and it shouldn't hurt, uless of course you are a sheeple and will be beguiled by all this subterfuge.
Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal
IMO, the Senate will delay re-newing the ITC until weak hands panic and sell their stock at a low price to the strong hands. When strong hands are in charge, they'll pull the strings and the Senate will renew the ITC, possibly with even better terms. "
The ITC is a subsidy that is not a win win situation, especially for solar. Did anyone take into account the cost of the land into these projects? I haven't seen one account so it is even more expensive to go solar as a renewable. Congress knows this and with a trillion dollar bailout of Freddie and Frannie on the horizon, I don't think that the 30% tax credit will be extended in it's present form. It most likely will be reduced.
Optisolar's "plant" will take up 9 1/2 sqquare miles????? What about the SPWR "plant?" Sorry but I just don't see the EPA approving such a vast destruction of land, even if it is in the desert. Someone will be crying for the scorpions and rattlesnakes for sure.
With Help from California, Solar Gets Fired Up
With Help from California, Solar Gets Fired Up
Solar cannot survive without subsidies and is a very inefficient way of making electricity. Wind, as a renewable is much better suited as unlike solar, can provide energy throughout the day. Solar don't work at night period. You need a back up supply, plain and simple. The tax credits for this should be reduced. As Alpha24/7 states, it takes money out of the poor and disadvantaged anyway. Energy will never be free. we won't be able to get off fossil fuels until our technology increases exponentially, which for solar hasn't happened.
With Help from California, Solar Gets Fired Up
Solar cannot survive without subsidies and is a very inefficient way of making electricity. Wind, as a renewable is much better suited as unlike solar, can provide energy throughout the day. Solar don't work at night period. You need a back up supply, plain and simple. The tax credits for this should be reduced. As Alpha24/7 states, it takes money out of the poor and disadvantaged anyway. Energy will never be free. we won't be able to get off fossil fuels until our technology increases exponentially, which for solar hasn't happened.
Five Stocks to Own Now that the Dow Has Bottomed
You have not read my post carefully. The buildout in China, India and Russia are done. The little glimmer of hope has been tied to the olympics that their economies will continue to grow at a pace that has been priced into the market. The slowdown affects everything.
As far as WM. If they were clamoring to get in, the Saudi's would have jumped in again, just like they did with Citi and they got burned, but so did Citi. WM is not a good investment in my opinion. You may think it's cheap and at $5 it may very well be, but how are they going to make earnings? Write more loans? The industry is broken and will be depressed for quite some time. If you wish to hold this for years and risk another "shoe drop" then go right ahead. But the potential for more runs on banks is there and quite real. WM is not in great shape.
Five Stocks to Own Now that the Dow Has Bottomed
but i find that people who ridicule the article do so hiding behind cowardly screen names. show some balls and print your name atleast "
Sure, maybe use a name like User 238740&1/2.....
Jobs report was dismal, still in a downward slope. Waiting for the "magic number" when they will all scream "RECESSION." That is when that may be time to call a bottom, although I think the global economy will be sluggish for quite some time. I look for China to go into a major slowdown now after the olympics are over. The tendency is to overestimate the impact of any specific event on the economy. There are already reports that the cities are smog filled and even some of the venues are inadequate. The massive buildup of hotels has been overdone and there are more than expected vancancies. China didn't plan on the global slowdown and thought they were going to go like gangbusters. Their numbers are going to be way off and then just like when someone gets buyer's remorse, they will cut back spending to make themselves feel better and conserve capital. Look at all the cities where the olympics have been held. The lasting economic benefits have been brief and usually followed by a period of contraction before starting another leg up, Lake Placid, Park City, Sarajevo, etc.....
To Ricki who bought FRE on July 31st....You enetered a bad position as the chart shows you bought right at it's peak and it appears it will test the low of under $5. It may go back to 3.89. That is a technical base. So your options are this.
Sell and protect against further loses, as it is highly unlikely it will reach your entry point anytime soon.
Hold the position but sell calls on your stock. Though it has run down quite a bit, the calls will bring in minimal funds.
Buy puts 5 strike price, and hold your position.
Wait for the lows of the year and then double down or possibly tripple down your position to play the bounce. This is the riskiest and takes a planned strategy becuase it is only used to get out of a position and not as an investment. Sometimes I close out my bad trades like this just with a minimalk loss as compared to a huge loss, just to "get out." Never hold this position for more than a 5 days after the bounce because the stock will usually retrace and then you are going to have a larger loss than you had originally.
Given the market and financial conditions, shorting the XLF is a better play than goig long. It has had a nice run up and you could pocket an easy 10% within the next few dfays.
SunPower Is a Semi - It Deserves to Be Valued Like One
how else can you explain nat gas going up in the summer months, especially when there weren't any storms in the Gulf? Also with coal, we produce and use most of our coal, and export to China, moreso than Europe. Coal and nat gas went up in sympathy with oil, that now as you can see is breaking it's bubble.
You are correct in that nukes are viewed as bad, but a good public relations firm can make these gullable greenies want one in their back yard. It is all about perception. Seriously though, nuclear is very clean and safe. Look at all the nuclear powered military ships. Guess what, they also carry more bombs. If it was as unsafe as people percieve it to be, there would have been accidents and I truly don't believe our military would use this type of power.
Did anyone catch the Akeena's earnings? Dismal and they are installers. Goes to show that if the EU keeps cutting, these solar companies are due for a drastic downturn because the retail installations are not being done, and rightfully so.
SunPower Is a Semi - It Deserves to Be Valued Like One
yes, Germany has the luxury of being around a lot longer than the US and so has become compacent and their populace has reached "parity" which means you can all enjoy a good standard of living while your government subsidises your way of life. Your past governments have never adopted a democratic, capitalistic governmance. Left to your own, Europe was not the peaceful area it is now. The last two world wars were fought in Europe and it took democracy and for the most part the US to bring peace and your way of life. So I say your welcome although you probably despise the thought of thanking the US for your present way of life.
The US is not a socialist country and for the most part the majority don't want to go that route. Germany is the size of let's say New York and New Jersey. Sure, intracountry transportation costs are contained. Your populace also live very close to where you work. The US is the direct opposite. Very large country and the major city areas happen to be thousands of miles away. Also, for some reason, we have adopted "suburbia" as a way to live very far away from where we work. Transportation in pour country is much more involved than in Germany, or any other individual European Country. Solar, although feasable, will not work because it isn't as efficient as lets say even wind at this point. In the future, it may be, but in it's present state, noway are city areas going to use acres worth hundreds of millions of dollars (even with our broken real estate) be used for panels to power a handful of homes. It won't happen. If the euro continues to lose value to the dollar, look for further cuts in subsidies and installations as it will get more expensive. The greenback is primed for a rebound and this doesn't bode well for new solar installations.
To aquaculture. Nat gas and coal are completely independent of oil. We produce our own coal and nat gas and the US exports these fossil fuels. Traders may make the price of Nat gas and coal move higher as other fuels increase, but it is a false increase and will correct as it has now. Oil thaough is for the most part produced in the most violent, hostile and unpredictable areas in the world. So look for oil to continue it's rise while our home grown fuels stay stable.
Ypou are correct in that Bush has solar panels in his ranch while the Green poster boy Gore uses so much fossil fuels, that by curtialing Gore, we could reverse global warming (just joking) What a farce that this idiot was given a nobel peace prize when someone much more deserving like Irena Sendler should have been chosen, not some trumped up slide show that the presenter himself has no interest whatsoever to follow what he preaches.
Another thing about nuclear power. It is safe and has minimal "waste." It is a big media scare and misinformation that has caused the stigma on this very efficient and useful mode of power. I won't get into it, but just do a search on the truth about energy sources and you can make your own opinion.
With warm regards from NY
SunPower Is a Semi - It Deserves to Be Valued Like One
The reason there are subsidies for coal, oil and nat gas, the fossil fuels that you guys think are the evil, is that they currently work well and the world would without them. Not so with solar. Solar is not a complete renewable source as even wind is. The technology is expensive and as a power source has limited power production capabilities. It is much the same way that ethanol has become a bust.
As far as comparing it to Intel and the chip industry, their valuations and stock went up because with every year they are able to improve the technology. Poly solar panels have become stagnant. There have not been any major improvements in efficiency, or at the rate which the chip companies are improving their products. Also the top of the line chipsets have maintained their prices for the most part, so if you equate that to solar, the panels will stay expensive or increase in price with each major improvement in efficiency.
You also base this scenario of increased installations with grid parity. Grid parity will never be reached. The reason is that the majority of the world's electricity is produced with coal, natgas, and nukes. These sources for the most part are controlled by stable countries, not where oil is produced. Oil can go to $500 a barrel and should have no impact on the cost of electricity, which many people seem to equate the two.
SPWR will also have a large portion of shares sold by Cypress, not good for the price of the stock. FSLR produces inefficient thin film. Cheaper than poly but very inefficient.
SunPower Is a Semi - It Deserves to Be Valued Like One
Further Thoughts on Trina Solar and the Solar Space
Five Stocks to Own Now that the Dow Has Bottomed
time to double down, or sell half.... So much fun."
On the contrary Jack, We are the voices of reason. Everything these bubble heads have said, especially Cramer has been wrong. If you listen to these guys you will go broke. There is no reason to ever double down on a falling stock, sure way to get crushed. Although doubling down on a short stock works much better.
To Akapital: Alternative energy is dead in the water. Solar panels for the most part will never be bigger than where they are now in their present form. They are way too expensive and they need a tremendous amount of surface area to produce at like 15% efficiency. (SPWR claims their panels are 22% efficient, but that's under 'ideal' conditions that you will very rarely see). Wind power is cheap and unlike solar can produce even at night. Wind is a better play but GE and the larger firms have that locked up. Ethanol? Yep that's about as good as a three dollar bill now. Nuclear power is going to be in our near future. It is clean safe and very efficient. Nat gas may be the fuel for our cars soon also.
Anyway, this article is like the numerous ones here, pump, pump pump. But the naked shorts are the bad guys. A fool is soon parted with his money. So any fool that buys into these pump jobs deserves to lose his shirt.