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    • Thu Apr 3rd 13:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      3 Reasons To Be Bullish on Solar Stocks - Cowen
      Steve Pluvia,

      You have no concept of anything about fundamentals or tech rallies. Tech rallies once born tend to have this euphoria which isn't justified by the multiples long term. Even if some of these companies are profitable, their earnings would have to quadruple to have a P/E ratio comprable to other stocks in the universe. Tehre would be good reason to buy a stock with good growth at say 25-50 times earnings, but never at 700 to 800. The fund managers that track "emerging growth" stocks will have to unload these stocks if they can't keep up the pace as they won't meet the fund criteria. If they are finisged their growth then the "value" guys pick them up. Or the dividend guys. I don't see that happening in the near term.. Take SPWR, one of the last ones out there with an absurd P/E: They missed their earnings last quarter and stated that there are "difficulties ahead." They will report on April 17th. I cannot forsee them increasing guidance, given that the job claims came in at 407,000. Retailers will be looking to close stores not invest in building out expensive improvements on leased property. Looking for SPWR to lose 50% by that day.

      Forget about a recession. We have been in one for at least two quarters. Hope we don't go into a depression. At the very leastthe economy will get worse than what it is now in the next year to a year and a half.
      View article »
    • Thu Apr 3rd 13:09 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Solar Stocks Show Signs of Life
      Thanks kkin365. I am still adding puts to my short position. I am fortunate that the stock can still run up a bit more before I start getting a fed or margin call, so for now I am hanging in and looking forward to the next miss of their earnings on April 17th. They missed in January and with the huge jump in jobless claims 407,000, and the retailers going to be hurting, I can't possibly see the retailers going forward with their plans, as was announced by Macy's. They may start to consider closing stores, so why would they invest a tremendous amout of money if they may close/sell stores.
      As far as China and the article:www.nytimes.com/2008/0...

      Yep, I am eight thousand percent sure they follow standard accepted accounting principles for their government companies. Who are their accountants...Hou, Wi, Foo, Kum & Hasol?
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 31st 15:56 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Solar Stocks Show Signs of Life
      Institutions also? They are selling also. They are all cutting their positions because the massive residential buildout will not occur this time also. Maybe if they were 7 years earlier during the housing boom, good ecomomy and cheap money. Now the only thing we have is cheap money, but the bank won't give you a loan for such a big ticket, speculative item for your home.

      As far as these going to Home Depot. Never until the prices come down alot. They won't for some time as these companies want to bleed the governments first.

      SOL is a China stock. I am a free market kind of guy. No company that is owned by a government will be longf in my portfolio, especially a communist one. Isn't that the biggest oxymoron out there, China stocks. They beat up on Monks, subjugate their people, violate all child labor laws out there, pollute like there is no tommorrow. Yep, sure give me a few thousand shares.
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 31st 14:39 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Solar Stocks Show Signs of Life
      SPWR has not reported any insider activity through the SEC in the past year. It may have reported transaction activity through other regulatory bodies. As a result, the activity below may not reflect the complete activity by the company's insiders.


      Monthly Share Rotation Number of Shares Value of Change Percent of Shares Outstanding
      Buyers 3/29/08 60,850 $3,999,062 0.80%
      Sellers 3/29/08 1,973,109 $129,676,678 3.00%

      You guys really need to wake up. There are many "good clean in favor" companies out there. I am not a bear because I don't believe global warming is real. It is real, but we may not have a choice anyway. The earthg was probably meant to be warmer anyway. Look at the prehistoric times. Just because as meteor hit the earth and caused the ice age, we have been getting warmer since. No new news.

      I would purchase solar panels if they were right for me, and all should do the same. But if you are an investor or trader, these are totally crap fundamentally. Look at MSFT, IBM, EBAY, GOOG any company that made it. There were massive insider buying, NOT SELLING. I am following the lead of the insiders and institutions which clearly is to sell.
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 31st 09:17 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Solar Stocks Show Signs of Life
      These companies are trading at a tremendous multiple. SPWR over 600x earnings and they warned at last earnings. I think solar will do well in the future but at reasonable multiples. I am short any company with over 50 times earnings in a bear market which we are in. BGG, SPWR, ALGN, STP, AMT, MTN, SUP are my favorites for now.
      View article »
    • Fri Mar 28th 01:58 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Contradictions in the Solar Market
      Also, look at the heavy insider selling. Why would an insider exercise options and immediately sell if he/she thought the stock would go up astronomical as the longs say its going. Heavy short interest in these companies is also ominous. Institutional selling is also another telling sign. The bubble has burst and looks like it will slowly fizzle.
      View article »
    • Fri Mar 28th 01:52 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Contradictions in the Solar Market
      Mkreisel,
      Yeah sure, nuclear power is so dangerous and unpredictable that they use it to power most naval ships that have more bombs and other dangerous stuff on them. Think about it. Even TMI was completely contained and not one person was injured. Chernobyl was a mess because it was a Russian desin that was inadequate, which I am sure the engineers have corrected by now in other plants if it needed to be.

      I like this article. Am short SPWR and have puts. Crash and burn baby.
      View article »
    • Thu Mar 27th 18:48 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Solar Power Inherently Deflationary?
      640 acres isn't excessive? You also said it could power 135,000 homes day and night. That is not the case. Most days also. Cloudy, overcast days you won't get the "peak" Wan said. You are listening to the press release from the company. Do some due diligence and see what is really going on. Besides, they still need final approval and have a major hurdle in the amount of real estate that they need.

      I would be surprised to see if this actually gets done, on time and on schedule and then produce the amount that they say it will. This may be another waste of our taxes when we clearly don't have the excess to throw away. Proven sources of power will win out.
      View article »
    • Thu Mar 27th 15:53 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      3 Reasons To Be Bullish on Solar Stocks - Cowen
      One last note. Can I borrow your shares?
      View article »
    • Thu Mar 27th 15:51 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      3 Reasons To Be Bullish on Solar Stocks - Cowen
      Sluce, you are right, I got crushed for a 16k loss of my profits, still up though. The heavy short positions are there for a reason, they see the same things I see. Solar power is one piece of the puzzle. It will not replace fossil fuels. Take California for example. They are trying to get a power plant on 640 acres, that's right 640 acres that hopefully will prduce 177 megawatts. Now even being optimistic, it will be able to be say up 30% efficiency and be able to supply maybe 40k homes. Where is it eco friendly? That is a tremendous amount of wasted land for such little return. I still say nuclear power will be the way to go eventually. At the present it seems to be the only logical choice.

      STP trades greater than 94% of it's peers. The growth isn't that good to warrant the present price. Also it's margins aren't the greatest and with the supply of silicone being scarce, as they say, the margins will shrink. Careful with that type of risk. Just look at Ethanol stocks.

      I will keep my shorts as I fear if I cover, I won't be able to get back in. SPWR will be back to where it was last year, in the 40's.
      View article »
    • Thu Mar 27th 03:39 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Solar Power Inherently Deflationary?
      Sorry, I must correct an error. I meant to say that 177 megawatt solar plant can power 20,000 homes. I redid my calculations a bit more generous with the multiple and came up with say just about 32,000 homes. Even assuming a larger multiple of efficiency say 50,000 tops and that is probably impossible, it is still far below the 135,000 homes quoted before.
      www.gasandoil.com/goc/...
      View article »
    • Thu Mar 27th 02:16 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Solar Power Inherently Deflationary?
      Besides, did you fully read the article? The author states he sees "Roth & Rau" as an example of a good company. It trades at 19x earnings. That may be a company you can go long with just given that the multiples are in line. Doesn't mean the stock will go up though, it just means the P/E ratio is more in line with what is a very good indicator of stock price.
      View article »
    • Thu Mar 27th 01:49 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Solar Power Inherently Deflationary?
      Sterlingman, your numbers are way off. It is a 177 megawatt plant on 640 acres. Yes that's 640 acres, a huge freaking amount.

      www.sanluisobispo.com/...

      Given that the average US home requires 9000 killowats that plant will be able to power maybe 20 homes. It will also need backup power, because it won't be able to handle the "peak power" periods.

      I think solar has huge baggage. Tremendous amount of land wasted that could be used to plant trees and other CO2 reducing plants and agriculture. The cost of these panels is way too high, and I don't understand why. Silicone has become an incredible cartel it seems, worse than the oil cartels. If they would make these panels cheaper, then the homebuilders could place a few panels on every new home built that would help everone involved. Until that happens, panels will have limited use.

      Nuclear power will be our ultimate choice. They will have to build more plants soon and they will. 200/bar oil is in our near future.
      View article »
    • Thu Mar 27th 01:09 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      3 Reasons To Be Bullish on Solar Stocks - Cowen
      G44,

      These multiples will come down as the stock prices come down. That is the only way. The groth rate is factored into these ratios and they are not possible in the near future, nor the next 2 years. Durable goods numbers this morning came in worse than expected. We are nowhere near a bottom in this recession we are just heading into. Evenone is hoping that there will be a "V" turnaround bottom but that never happens, look at all the rest of the downturns, there are all "U" shaped. So this volatility will have to end before you go long. This stock will never see 140 again. I know, been burned before by many "profitable" companies that had mickey mouse magical kingdom multiples. If you own these stocks, sell then. There will be a time and place to enter a position. It isn't here or in the next year and a half.
      View article »
    • Wed Mar 26th 16:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      3 Reasons To Be Bullish on Solar Stocks - Cowen
      Bought the $55 puts now anyway, in addition to the 2000 short. Will add on any future runup. But I think the runup is done. The last one fizzled at around 80. This one fizzled at around 70. We should see 60 again very soon.
      View article »
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