supershort

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    • Wed Mar 26th 13:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      3 Reasons To Be Bullish on Solar Stocks - Cowen
      Gebby,

      I agree that global warming is real. We have to limit our use of fossil fuels, but it is inevitable that GW will continue as all nations start to expand their economies. Solar power is just a small piece of the puzzle. The P/E ratios are way out of line. It is people like you who just scream "BUY THESE STOCKS" without looking at the fundamentals that I have issue with. As far as future graowth, most of these companies have lowered their forcast earnings for the near future. So where is the need to go out and buy long?

      I tried to short another 1000 shares of SPWR and they wouldn't let me because they say there aren't any shares to borrow. Gebby, can I borrow and short your shares please, pretty please, with sugar on top.
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    • Wed Mar 26th 09:59 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      3 Reasons To Be Bullish on Solar Stocks - Cowen
      Amatteck, federal policy has been to continue with the path we have been going for the last 50 years or so. That is oil, coal and natural gas. Oil was very cheap and so that is why we built our energy system around this particular source. Also, oil is used for other purposes such as asphalt, textiles and powering autos and other vehicles. We have spent a tremendous amount of money on the buildup of this from the refineries, to the pipelines to the plants. So a policy switch to solar is probably not going to happen. Natural gas, since we have a lot of it will play a larger role as the pipelines and delivery system needs to be built. It is also "always on", not like the renewables like solar and wind. For the average person to put solar panel;s on their home is a huge undertaking, even with the subsidies. The home has to face a certain way. The surface area has to be adequate. The biggest hinderance is that you still need to have another alternate source of energy as it doesn't work well as it gets warmer and when the sun isn't out. Also, for companies to buy land or lease building roofs to put panels on them is not possible in this time. Land and homes, even though they have come down, are still too expensive to allow for this scenario. Take NYC or any major city for that matter. The panels would have to be placed very far from the city, cutting down trees and clearing land, more detrimental to the enviornment so there is no saving of a "carbon footprint."

      Like I have said before, SPWR is at over 600x earnings now. No company stays at that level for long. These companies will play a part, but I will wait until they get down to earth in their multiples, say like Exxonmobile multiples.

      Disclaimer: I am supershort on the solar companies, so I have done my research.
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    • Tue Mar 25th 14:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      3 Reasons To Be Bullish on Solar Stocks - Cowen
      Grid parity is just one piece of the equation. These stocks are trading at incredible multiples. The average homeowner is having trouble paying a mortgage, and now are financing cars for eight years. There is no market for these high priced panels. Also, the carbon footprint to build these panels and the waste involved is not as eco friendly as you are led to believe.

      Also, the panels are more efficient and produce more electrictity when it is cold out, so it is when there is less sunlight and less time to net-net the power to the grid. In the summer and in the warmer climates like FL and the south, the peak electrical usage is during the hottest part of the day, again at the least efficient time of the panels. So you still need backup power. Solar will play a larger role but it will never be large enough for these multiples.

      Nuclear power is economical, safe, and is the cheapest to run long term. That is a big part of the equation that everyone os leaving out. Once they build more and they will, because we are being stragled here, the government will pull the subsidies on these and go for more self sustaining means os power.
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    • Mon Mar 24th 17:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      3 Reasons To Be Bullish on Solar Stocks - Cowen
      TSL P/E = 24x is comparable to other companies in the Semiconductors industry. TSL's Gross Margin is less than 77% of other companies in the Semiconductors industry, which means it has less cash to spend on business operations as compared to its peers.

      Trina is a China company. I am sure that they could fudge the numbers if they wanted to, just by pegging their currency to some other arbitrary thing they pick out of the sky. Why would you want to own a company that is owned by the government, a communist one at that?

      STP P/E Ratio is greater than 94% of other companies in the Electric Utilities industry. STP's Gross Margin is less than 78% of other companies in the Electric Utilities industry, which means it has less cash to spend on business operations as compared to its peers. Another China company. Enough said.

      LDK's P/E Ratio is comparable to other companies in the Semiconductors industry. LDK's Gross Margin is less than 61% of other companies in the Semiconductors industry, which means it has less cash to spend on business operations as compared to its peers. Another China company? It also has a heavy short interest 24%.

      So why would anyone think these are cheap?

      Just think of me as Daedalus and these "anallists" as Icarus, trying to get you to fly too close to the sun.
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    • Mon Mar 24th 15:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      3 Reasons To Be Bullish on Solar Stocks - Cowen
      Jim, look at E*Trade, Yahoo, MSN ets under the P/E ratio. All of these stocks are trading at a high multiple. Forward earnings doesn't mean anything. It may make that in the future but thjese companies are all having difficulty with forward earnings and if they say they can't meet them, these will crash. Given the way the economy is and the whole outlook of financing, these big ticket items are not going to do well. For anyone to recommend them as "cheap" and basing that opinion on forward earnings is setting you up for a fall. Look at the insiders, they are all selling. If it was cheap, they would be buying.
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    • Mon Mar 24th 09:59 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      3 Reasons To Be Bullish on Solar Stocks - Cowen
      Where do these guys get off making calls that these stocks are undervalued? Their P/E ratios are astronomical SPWR is at nearly 600. I guess these guys believe in the Easter bunny also that this P/E ratio is sustainable. Even with continued subsidies, you stand a beter chance that these stocks will go down rather than up.
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    • Thu Mar 20th 16:40 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Solar Power Inherently Deflationary?
      I agree with Mr. Briggs. Solar panels are getting more expensive and it doesn’t produce any immediate savings. There is wear and tear on these panels and no one has mentioned the maintenance costs of these systems. They will also be absolete by the time you will make your “free electricity.”

      You guys need to do your research on nuclear power. That is one of the cleanest ways of making energy. Our Canucks to the north do well with it and actually sell it to us. France is Nuclear. Safety you say? Gee, I think it’s pretty safe if they use it to propel large ships with a lot of bombs on them, and I never heard of them having any issues.

      Solar panels are just a way if someone wants to “go green.” But it isn’t economical or proven long term. Logistically, the home has to face a certain way to be able to fully use it. God forbid there are any trees in the area, just cut them down and increase your carbon footprint anyway.

      Solar stocks are the next bubble SPWR has burst, it will just slowly shrivel up now.
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    • Mon Mar 17th 12:13 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Solar Power Inherently Deflationary?
      Tan, the valuation of Sunpower and most of these solar stocks is astronomical. SPWR is over 500x earnings. The stock is a $5-10 tops in a year.

      Solar is just a small part of our energy picture, but on a cost saving basis, it will take you like 10 years to recoup your investment. Not efficient enough, and they say the costs of the systems are increasing, so I don't think that solar energy the way it is now will be that important in the future. Hydrogen power is more promising.

      Nuclear power is the answer for the most part to our need for energy, plain and simple. It is very efficient and low cost per unit power.
      View article »
    • Wed Mar 12th 14:36 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Short Covering Helps Boost Stocks
      Although the major indicies are up over the long term, it is a fool's game to invest long term. For every Microsoft, if you bought in 86, there are hundreds of Enron's and other companies that went bust. Since last year, I have been a short seller and I have been up 24% last year. This year I am up 16%. I short every overvalued company, SPWR, BGG, ALGN, JCW, anyone that the P/E ratio is greater than the rest of theri peers. I may get upside down for a while, but they all come in.

      As far as fixing the economy, How about fixing the government first. Less taxes and less interferrence in the markets. Anyone who calls for a government bailout is a socialist, or communist. That's not what free markets are all about. You numbnuts should read our constitution. The government presently is bankrupting us and will descimate us in the long term. You want America strong, bring back manufacturing here. Make laws about CEO's and others in stock option distributions that are equal for everyone. Build more nuclear power plants, and we will have enough oil for ourselves to power the autos. Yes, we have to have our peple doing the jobs that illegals are doing now. Yes, it will be a bitter pill, but it will make us stronger in the long run. Less government, less welfare, less handouts, no bailouts, just hard work which this country was founded on but now is about doing the easiest way out without work. There is no such thing as a free lunch nimblenuts, remember that.

      This won't be over until a few banks, insurers, lenders, retailers, and other companies go out of buisness. That's when you go long, but only on low P/E stocks and a very selective few which I still can't see yet. It is much easier to short than go long.
      View article »
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