supershort

Has the Sun Set on Solar Energy Stocks?

The sun has set. Heavy selling on good news is sure sign this bubble's done. A few months ago, I was reiterating the flight of Icarus. How ironic and what an amazing story. Learn from it fellows.

Solar Energy: Help Is on the Way

Yep, with help like this, who needs any enemies.
SPWR and FSLR are clearly in bear market. Clearly. Heavy selling on good news is a sure sign the bubble has burst. SPWR is breaking through it's 10, 21, 50 and 200 day MA. FSLR formed a bear flag pattern yesterday. These will shoot down to reasonable p/e ratios. Look for them to lose at least 50% in the next two weeks.

Has the Sun Set on Solar Energy Stocks?

"Is SPWR becoming the Government main contractor for installing solar systems on Federal sites.
They just completed installing a solar electric system on top of the roof top for the Dept of Energy Federal Building in Washington D.C. Sun power has also installed solar system for other government agencies such as the US Navy in Hawaii and Calf, The US Postal Service, and Air Force bases.
They have under contract to build a Solar system at Kennedy Space center site.
The company has no debt and over the last 3 months insiders have purchased a net 56.0K shares. This is in stark contrast to the 2-year quarterly average where insiders are net sellers and indicates that insiders are more bullish about SPWR's prospects for the next 6-12 months.
They need no Gov tax incentives...The Gov is paying them for their solar systems. "

While the government is buying the panels, the administration will change and therefore they probably will lose their contracts. Usually happens in these cases.

Now where are you getting that the insiders have purchased shares? That is an out and out lie. They have been selling. Cypress sold 2.5 million shares.

Atkins, Shughar, Swanson, Richards, Wood and Werner have been selling just like Mozillo of countrywide. Does anyone else see the same thing going on here? You all remember Mozillo right? Just like the guys at Thornberg and Jack Yetiv and the other pumpers here.

Solar is a great idea, but these p/e's are way out of line. This one will be in the 20's by January.

Evergreen Solar, SunPower Among Solar Stars - Kaufman

Gebby,

End "end user independence" will never happen. It is always priced out of the end users range by the same companies that say they want to help the end user.....and by how? Gauging the industry. I will say again. These solars are Chinese stocks. China is communist with a pegged currency. So China stocks is the biggest oxymoron in the market. Enough said. You have a better shot in Vegas than going long these stocks.

Now for FLSR and SPWR. High P/E ratios. Very high. The insiders are selling worse than Mozillo at Countrwide and the guys at Thornberg and IndyMac. Look where those stocks are now. Ahern sold over 150 million dollars worth of stock on the 15 and 16th of May. Doesn't appear to be a "buy and hold" long term stock. Same with SPWR.

AMAT, GE, and the bigger players will ultimately win long term in the solar space, if solar is going to get bigger, which I doubt. Nuclear will be the choice for our electricity needs.

Evergreen Solar, SunPower Among Solar Stars - Kaufman

SPWR now has 38% short interest. Insiders keep dumping and Cypress will be dumping also.

Evergreen Solar, SunPower Among Solar Stars - Kaufman

Beware of obscure anaylists pumping heavily shorted stocks.

Is Solar Power Inherently Deflationary?

Besides, oil has nothing to do with solar panels or the growth of it or reaching parity. In the US, coal is used in 45% of the power plants. 35% is natural gas. The remaining 20% is currently nuclear, and renewables and oil. SO why would the price of oil have an impact. As a matter of fact, as oil goes up it will cost more to produse the panels and plastics and transportation will become more expensive, so it will be less efficient. Think about it like a reasonable person.

Is Solar Power Inherently Deflationary?

And your point Long STP is??????? You have been pumping the solar sector on every blog you can find. DO you even own any of these panels yourself? Do you even have a clue as to what's involved? You think this company is going to the sun because you say so..... no other viable reason other than the usual global warming alarmist doubletalk. Let's see who's right in a couple of years.......

Is Solar Power Inherently Deflationary?

640 acres isn't excessive? You also said it could power 135,000 homes day and night. That is not the case. Most days also. Cloudy, overcast days you won't get the "peak" Wan said. You are listening to the press release from the company. Do some due diligence and see what is really going on. Besides, they still need final approval and have a major hurdle in the amount of real estate that they need.

I would be surprised to see if this actually gets done, on time and on schedule and then produce the amount that they say it will. This may be another waste of our taxes when we clearly don't have the excess to throw away. Proven sources of power will win out.

Is Solar Power Inherently Deflationary?

Sorry, I must correct an error. I meant to say that 177 megawatt solar plant can power 20,000 homes. I redid my calculations a bit more generous with the multiple and came up with say just about 32,000 homes. Even assuming a larger multiple of efficiency say 50,000 tops and that is probably impossible, it is still far below the 135,000 homes quoted before.
www.gasandoil.com/goc/...

Is Solar Power Inherently Deflationary?

Besides, did you fully read the article? The author states he sees "Roth & Rau" as an example of a good company. It trades at 19x earnings. That may be a company you can go long with just given that the multiples are in line. Doesn't mean the stock will go up though, it just means the P/E ratio is more in line with what is a very good indicator of stock price.

Is Solar Power Inherently Deflationary?

Sterlingman, your numbers are way off. It is a 177 megawatt plant on 640 acres. Yes that's 640 acres, a huge freaking amount.

www.sanluisobispo.com/...

Given that the average US home requires 9000 killowats that plant will be able to power maybe 20 homes. It will also need backup power, because it won't be able to handle the "peak power" periods.

I think solar has huge baggage. Tremendous amount of land wasted that could be used to plant trees and other CO2 reducing plants and agriculture. The cost of these panels is way too high, and I don't understand why. Silicone has become an incredible cartel it seems, worse than the oil cartels. If they would make these panels cheaper, then the homebuilders could place a few panels on every new home built that would help everone involved. Until that happens, panels will have limited use.

Nuclear power will be our ultimate choice. They will have to build more plants soon and they will. 200/bar oil is in our near future.

Is Solar Power Inherently Deflationary?

I agree with Mr. Briggs. Solar panels are getting more expensive and it doesn’t produce any immediate savings. There is wear and tear on these panels and no one has mentioned the maintenance costs of these systems. They will also be absolete by the time you will make your “free electricity.”

You guys need to do your research on nuclear power. That is one of the cleanest ways of making energy. Our Canucks to the north do well with it and actually sell it to us. France is Nuclear. Safety you say? Gee, I think it’s pretty safe if they use it to propel large ships with a lot of bombs on them, and I never heard of them having any issues.

Solar panels are just a way if someone wants to “go green.” But it isn’t economical or proven long term. Logistically, the home has to face a certain way to be able to fully use it. God forbid there are any trees in the area, just cut them down and increase your carbon footprint anyway.

Solar stocks are the next bubble SPWR has burst, it will just slowly shrivel up now.

Is Solar Power Inherently Deflationary?

Tan, the valuation of Sunpower and most of these solar stocks is astronomical. SPWR is over 500x earnings. The stock is a $5-10 tops in a year.

Solar is just a small part of our energy picture, but on a cost saving basis, it will take you like 10 years to recoup your investment. Not efficient enough, and they say the costs of the systems are increasing, so I don't think that solar energy the way it is now will be that important in the future. Hydrogen power is more promising.

Nuclear power is the answer for the most part to our need for energy, plain and simple. It is very efficient and low cost per unit power.