supershort

Evergreen Solar, SunPower Among Solar Stars - Kaufman

Gebby,

End "end user independence" will never happen. It is always priced out of the end users range by the same companies that say they want to help the end user.....and by how? Gauging the industry. I will say again. These solars are Chinese stocks. China is communist with a pegged currency. So China stocks is the biggest oxymoron in the market. Enough said. You have a better shot in Vegas than going long these stocks.

Now for FLSR and SPWR. High P/E ratios. Very high. The insiders are selling worse than Mozillo at Countrwide and the guys at Thornberg and IndyMac. Look where those stocks are now. Ahern sold over 150 million dollars worth of stock on the 15 and 16th of May. Doesn't appear to be a "buy and hold" long term stock. Same with SPWR.

AMAT, GE, and the bigger players will ultimately win long term in the solar space, if solar is going to get bigger, which I doubt. Nuclear will be the choice for our electricity needs.

Evergreen Solar, SunPower Among Solar Stars - Kaufman

SPWR now has 38% short interest. Insiders keep dumping and Cypress will be dumping also.

Evergreen Solar, SunPower Among Solar Stars - Kaufman

Beware of obscure anaylists pumping heavily shorted stocks.

Solar Power Will Be Transformational in the Next Decade

jajagabor,

I am as asinine as you are. Your comment about buying a "not needed SUV" in your opinion should be replaced by a solar panel sytem, which is needed in your opinion. Sure, will people to buy something else they don't need nor want. If people wish to "go solar" they can, just don't pass judgement on those that are skeptical.


Solar power in it's present form and what is offered today is not cost effective, nor is it sound. These systems require great surface areas and vast qquantities of land in order to build power plants. They also reqquire back up power, or have to use batteries which for the most part are detrimental to the envirornment. They are very costly. And as I have said before and Jack Y has just admitted, they are not as efficient during the warmest part of the day, generally when there will be the greatest load placed by the air conditioning use.

I am glad you made money with these stocks, but at the present they are trading at absurd ratios and to pump these stocks is a disservice to investors. You are right in that many don't understand the solar industry, hence why they have these "pops" when oil surges, when oil has little to do with the price of electricity. Bottom line, a lot of these companies are China companies, with a pegged currency and owned by a government that has shown to not care about the truth or free trade, and will push their agenda with whatever menas it sees fit. So all those stocks are out. Which leaves a few other companies which i believe have had their run, given the macroeconomic picture and the fact that solar ennegy with it's current technology, is probably more wasteful than good much like ethanol. Maybe in a few years it may change, but I don't see these present companies as the major players.

Drugal,

Nice to hear that you went solar. Unfortunately, most people will not be able to afford that extra 17K nut, especially when the credit markets are locked up and the home prices are falling, and people are losing their jobs. I just don't see it being a major growth area in the next two years.

Major Corporate Shift to Solar Energy and LEDs

The price of oil has little bearing on how much electricity costs. The majority is produced by coal an nat gas, which the US doesn't have a supply problem with. Corporate earnings are going down, and they will have little to spend on such high ticket items such as solar panels that have a 25 year payback time. Bottom line is at this point solar is a great idea, but the costs are totally out of whack. Solar is a big speculative play at this point, especially to be long after these have run up their P/E's to, well the sun.

Solar Power Will Be Transformational in the Next Decade

With all due respect, the solar bulls here are not looking at what exactly is going on in the world ecomomy. The mortgage application rate is down again. Existing home sales are down again. Oil is up again. All this bodes poorly for speculative companies with high P/E ratios. All your article is, although well written with some good points sprinkled in, is a pipe dream. Nothing else. There are no companies currently offering a out of the box installation, and to bet on SPWR, or FSLR that don't make an out of the box solar panel for home use that is economical. The industry for the most part says that costs will not come down for these panels. You do not have a crystal ball, and most of your future predictions are highly hopefull dreams.

Your comments although nice and get people feeling nice, warm and fuzzy, but by buying these stocks you are doing nothing for global warming or the envirornment. Replace lightbulbs with high efficiency ones, carpool, take public transportation, buy American products, curtain spending on those frivolous plastic stuff made in China etc.

PS I love the comment that Wind Turbines are going to be out of favor because they kill birds, but what about the massive waste of land that the solar panels need. What noone cares about the insects, reptiles and other animals that live in the desert. There are animals there also. What is the environmental impact of using acres and acres of land to power a few hunderd thousand homes without solving the problem of using our fossil fuels in the first place.

Solar Power Will Be Transformational in the Next Decade

Analyst,

You quote a 31 year payback time at a rate without any cloudy days and same temperature. Assuming even 90% sneshine, it goes up to 49 years. In 40 years there will be something newer, and more efficient, you can bank on that. So you will never recoup any cost savings on any solar panel system. You just confirmed another bear argument point.

Solar Power Will Be Transformational in the Next Decade

I was shorting them.

Solar Power Will Be Transformational in the Next Decade

You make a very nice long pitch for solar stocks. Sorry to be the spoiler, but I just can't resist.

Solar panel power plants are not self sustaining. They don't produce power at the same peak or efficiency for any predictable period of time. You will need a backup source, and as our nation and economy continue to grow and recover, solar will not keep up with the demand. So in essence we are wasting money for a two tier system.

You correctly state that the price of oil should not have an effect on solar power, but it does. In a negative way. Oil is used to manufacture many of the plastics and components in a typical panel installation. That will continue to drive up the costs of these systems and your quote of

" $10,000 for a 2KW system installed, up to $30,000 for a 7 KW system, installed. Assuming electricity cost of 13 cents per KWH (that's what I pay here in Texas today), expect 12-15 year paybacks in sunny locales in the US. Of course, as costs of these systems continue to drop, more big-box stores will carry these systems because even places with a less-than-perfect sun resource will be able to achieve reasonable paybacks. "

is a very telling sign. How can the average homeowner with increasing costs and inflation afford this at this point, or even in the near future? A lender would never give a loan at this time or in the next three to four years on something that has a payback in 15 years at best. The out of the box solar panels will never be a reality alsoi for the simple reason that a power surge can knock down a grid. Lighhtning strikes could cause an overload to the system and take out a grid, if there were many homes and individuals on a grid. Now the terrorist factor. Once your home or busness is loged onto the grid, it is only a matter of time to bypass the surge protector and knock out a grid.

You also fail to mention the astronomical P/E ratios these stocks are trading at. Even based on your predictions, the values are way too rich. Also why are all the insiders of these companies dumping their stock like there will be no sun tommorrow?

Solar will play a part in our future, a slightly greater part than we have now, but at these prices, the stocks are incredibly overvalued at this point.

Solar Stocks: Nine That Will Shine in a Bull Market

You people here for the most part are talking with emotion and not reason. period. The left wing media and the oil and present energy industry have created this hysteria that nuclear is bad. It is a viable safe form of energy. The facts remain:

Solar power is a great idea, but in it's present state, it will not and probably never replace our present fossil fuels. It is not always on. It presently requires huge areas of land for these plants which has a tremendous EPA impact, even if they are in the desert. They are very expensive, as a cost per killowatt.
Now the fundamentals: Most of these companies trade at incredible multiples. They are heavily shorted and are increasingly being "pumped up." The insiders are all selling. Their executives dump more every day.

When people become emotional about a company or stock because they feel that if they own it, it will make them and the world better. That is not investing.

www.jbs.org/node/3481
new-fed.com/other/2007...

Countries that use Nuclear energy:
world-nuclear.org/info...

Most of Europe uses Nuclear power for electricity, and for a very long time. Most of those countries are like a larger state of the US. They are in close proximity to major populations. Most of the military uses nuclear power to propell their ships and they go into harms way and they carry bombs. The military wouldn't use the technology if they thought they would lose a multi billion dollar piece of equipment and lives if it "could be blown up by a terrorist."

Now for the big oil falsehood. When oil goes up it will bring grid parity for solar. This could not be further from the truth. Very little of the world's electrictity is produced from oil. over 75% is from coal and natural gas. Both of these thankfully for now are readilly available and not controlled by people who don't have an agenda against the US.

This is a bubble friends. A huge pump job. If they were at resonable P/E's I would be the first to go long. Anyone long at these levels or saying that "If FSLR breaks 300, then the the sky is the limit" by an author on this site Andrew Ling is one of the reasns I am here to give people a dose of reality. This reminds me when there were year price targets of 350 for APPL, and over 1000 for GOOG and BIDU. Needless to say, those were huge pump jobs and I made a ton of money shorting these. I believe the main reason is these anylists that pull people into these stocks through emotion and not the reason you buy stocks long. A good fundamental base, dividend, cash flow and type of industry. Solar will play a part in our energy picture but if you beive that it will replace everything else, It is you who has just bought the Brooklyn Bridge but you just don't know it.

Solar Stocks: Nine That Will Shine in a Bull Market

Sir Sid,

Although hygrogen energy is an alternative, in order to obtain it, you need to use water. That is a life sustaining resource, unlike coal, oil, uranium. Just think what would happen to the price of food, given to what has happened with the use of biofuels now. That clearly is not the answer. All our use of energy comes with a price. Solar as savior is not going to happen. Has anyone looked into solar panels for your home? I did. It is over 30,000 for a minor installation, which they would give about 10K in tax breaks. For me to recoup 20K in energy "savings" even at these levels is over 15 years. Plus I still need to maintain an alternate power supply or buy massive expensive batteries that truly are toxic for the envirornment. So solar isn't looking too green for me, unless you are of course looking through your green colored glasses.

Ignorance is bliss. You call me and others "morons" and yet fail to back up your position with any substantial content.

Solar Stocks: Nine That Will Shine in a Bull Market

It's the Dicki and Forxtrader show. I don't have time to go into debunking your negativity against nuclear power. Your remarks are infantile at best. Yahoo search "myths about nuclear power" and "myths about solar power." You will be incredibly surprised.

www.larouchepub.com/ot...

Nuclear power is probably one of the safest forms of power. Just consider that our most militaries use it to power things, dangerous things that have bombs on them and send them into harms way. Boy you should be really scared.

Solar power requires a huge amount of land for little power production. Even in the deserts, what is the environmental impact on using 640 acres to power lets say a 100,000 homes for half the day...at best? What about the rattlesnakes, scorpions, coyotes, cacti, etc?

Solar Stocks: Nine That Will Shine in a Bull Market

Remember the story of Icarus and Daedalus.......It is so ironic and telling of human nature. These multiples are astronmical and unsustainable. Also there technology will improve and these present companies will be toast and left out. They have no money for R&D and their margins are shrinking. SPWR just increased their credit line to 150 million, from 50 million dollars. Not the sign of a company with good earnings and cash flow. Also Cypress Semi will be dumping a few million shares as they recieved a favorable tax ruling so they will need to unload quickly into this next quarter to meet their next earnings (they just missed last week).

Nuclear will be our answer for long term electricity production. Best of all it is very green with less waste to the environment compared to solar and bio fuels.