supershort

Goldman Turns Cautious on Solar Sector

Get over it. I have been saying this for months. You guys didn't see the writing on the wall. So you can only blame yourselves. I mean really, were you guys expecting an upgrade? Get real.

Has the Sun Set on Solar Energy Stocks?

The sun has set. Heavy selling on good news is sure sign this bubble's done. A few months ago, I was reiterating the flight of Icarus. How ironic and what an amazing story. Learn from it fellows.

Has the Sun Set on Solar Energy Stocks?

"Is SPWR becoming the Government main contractor for installing solar systems on Federal sites.
They just completed installing a solar electric system on top of the roof top for the Dept of Energy Federal Building in Washington D.C. Sun power has also installed solar system for other government agencies such as the US Navy in Hawaii and Calf, The US Postal Service, and Air Force bases.
They have under contract to build a Solar system at Kennedy Space center site.
The company has no debt and over the last 3 months insiders have purchased a net 56.0K shares. This is in stark contrast to the 2-year quarterly average where insiders are net sellers and indicates that insiders are more bullish about SPWR's prospects for the next 6-12 months.
They need no Gov tax incentives...The Gov is paying them for their solar systems. "

While the government is buying the panels, the administration will change and therefore they probably will lose their contracts. Usually happens in these cases.

Now where are you getting that the insiders have purchased shares? That is an out and out lie. They have been selling. Cypress sold 2.5 million shares.

Atkins, Shughar, Swanson, Richards, Wood and Werner have been selling just like Mozillo of countrywide. Does anyone else see the same thing going on here? You all remember Mozillo right? Just like the guys at Thornberg and Jack Yetiv and the other pumpers here.

Solar is a great idea, but these p/e's are way out of line. This one will be in the 20's by January.

SunPower, Solar Stocks Hit By Panel Price Prediction

Your lemon model is something that is avaailable for purchase by the the masses and is cheap. Ask SKS, SKX, JCG, MOV and others about cutting their prices and how their revenues are doing. You longs just don't get it, do you?

SunPower, Solar Stocks Hit By Panel Price Prediction

Look for these companies to start lowereing their forecasts next, even with the tax credits. look for SPWR to break 50.

In the Battle of Best Solar Plays, U.S. Is a Distant Second

"For a $6 billion company, $28.6 million net income is simply not enough to encourage investors. "

This statement is intentionally misleading. Since when is quarterly net income stated as a percentage of market capitalization ($6 billion)? Comparing quarterly net income relative to QUARTERLY GROSS REVENUES is the accepted accouting norm, unless one has an agenda.
Dislosure: Long SPWR

Not misleading at all. It is a way to gauge P/E ratios which SPWR has an absurd P/E ratio. Given that this last quarter was guided down, they beat their lowered guidance. They also are a heavy player in Europe because of the subsidies because they are more expensive than the Chinese counterparts. Since they have announced plans to start fabricating in China, to lower costs but as most things fabricated in China show, you get what you pay for, a cheaper inferior product. Why should this be any different?

As far as the "energy crisis" bubbleheads go. Oil can go to $500 a barrel as long as nat gas and coal remain stable, which they should as they are abundant in the US, thankfully, it should not have an impact on electricity costs, period. Grid parity in the US will probably never be reached because of this and it is for this reason, among others why solar will not be a major player in the energy sector in it's present form. If it can be much more efficient and cheaper, without taking up acres of land to power a handful of homes, then you have an argument for a long position on SPWR.

Given that the subsidies will be cut in Spain, and Germany is mulling reinstating nuclear power and cutting their subsidies, and there seems to be a push for wind, look for SPWR to be in the 20's by January 09.

Solar: Spain Subsidy-Slashing Rumors Send Stocks Lower

I have been saying this all along, that everyone is rethinking the subsidies for solar because in it's present form, is not cost effective. Look for more cuts and further bursting of this solar bubble. Remember Icarus and how he wanted to get close to the sun....well at these P/E ratios and high expectations, it is a similar case.

Solar Shorts Keep On Rising Even As Oil Surprises

By the way SPWR has over 40% of it's shares short.

Solar Shorts Keep On Rising Even As Oil Surprises

Secmaven, after what has happened lately in the financials, there isn't much more to go down. SPWR is at 70 now and will probably be at 20 by years end. Solars have high P/E ratios, the insiders are selling their shares the same way the inside guys at IndyMac and Countrywide were selling theirs. The solars will be the next financials.

Solar Stocks Feeling the Heat

gebby states "global warming is real is man destined to obliterate himself. what is with the death wish of supershot"

What does global warming, even if there is something we could do about it, have anything to do with making a bad investment? You guys have been saying that these stocks are going to the moon, when they have gone down. I have been right on with my assessments and Jack Yetiv, although he appears to be smart has led you all to lose money.

Global warming is not an absolute. The world is getting warmenr but it has been going on since the last ice age. We have not caused this. Can we stop it or reverse it? Not with solar panels of all things. How about limiting the amount of sunlight hitting the earth, causing a decrease in temperatures, just like when St. Helens erupted?

Jack, I have told you before, you know nothing about Italian politics and their economy. Italy is in no way poised to become the savior of solar, much less TSL, a China company with a pegged currency and on the verge of a total meltdown of their economy. Both my parents, uncles, aunts, and friends have land in Italy. My brother in law looked into leasing the land for solar panels. Well he has some fig trees, and other trees deemed by the environmental agency that they are not to be destroyed. So no solar panels there. My parents had people steal trees from their property and they investigated us that they thought we had chopped the trees down ourselves, which we did not and had no idea who did. The Italian economy has been at a standstill for some years. My two cousins who are physicians, had to wait years after graduation before they were placed at jobs, and not their choices. Both in other cities away from their families. So even though there may be interest in Italy, it will not make up for the cuts in Germany and Spain. Besides, the P/E ratios have priced in increases in panel use, when the trend is clearly that they will be using less than expected.

I am concerned about the environmnet. I limit my use of fuel everyday and try to conserve, recycle, and buy eco friendly products. That is one of the main reasons I get a knot in my stomach when I see "MADE IN CHINA" as tehy are the most eco destructive country out there, and yet Jack touts one of their stocks as being the global warming savior.

Solar Stocks Feeling the Heat

Yes but at the same time GRID prices for Spanish consumers (except for very low income families -who will not buy panels anyway) will also increase by 16%. And businesses WILL START TO PAY MARKET PRICES.
Spain has subsidized electricity consumption in general (not just solar) for more then 10 years now. Just to pay back government debt in 15 years would mean grid prices will have to increase by at least 35%.
Spanish consumers are not stupid: the net effect is zero and the solar market in Spain will stay strong, especially as solar silicon prices come down and the entire mediterranean will reach grid parity.
(disclosure: long CSIQ)


Where to begin......The poor were never figured into the equation, as everyone knew that they would never buy panels. The growth and absurd P/E ratios were driven by the ramblings of Gore and the greenies. Also, we were in a housing boom where we thought that the whole world would become millionaires, through housing and the way the economies were growing. Well we all know where we stand now in that respect. The only thing that was left is these subsidies. Well, finally the governments have realized that the ROI and grid parity for these panels will never be reached in their present states, so the subsidies will be cut. So what is to hold these stocks up? Nothing, jujst don't be the last one holding the bag.

Which Solar Stocks Will Continue To Shine?

Getting your hands bloody guys? Circus performers catch knives, not traders.....So ask yourself who you wish to be.

Confessions of a Shallow Solar Trader

I guess this guy might be Yetiv. Short the solars, especially the China stocks. What an oxymoron, China Stocks.

Which Solar Stocks Will Continue To Shine?

fxtrader,

yes, China will also go into a recession. If you truly were a "forex" and or currency trader as your name implies, you would understand that China is in big trouble with their currency. It is pegged, and the government will not allow it to trade as it should, in a free market. The other nagging issue is their inflation and their attemots to price freeze. They will not allow fuel and other commodities, and raw goods to be sold in a free market. They have price capped many things, to insure that they complete their buildup for the olympics. They have runaway inflation that all the price capping they are doing now will be unsustainable, especially in light of the slowdown in the US and EU. So yes, after the olympics, China will be in a recession.

Also, if you think they can lose "another 20-30% as you say, why would you buy anything long at this point. You do not make any sense. If there is a 30% drop in a stock, you would need a move to the upside of just about 42% to break out even. You have a better shot at winning the lottery than consistently picking stocks that go up 42%. How about shooting for an 8-10% gain shorting them now? That is the smart investment, not this pumping.

Which Solar Stocks Will Continue To Shine?

Jack, although your intentions may be good, I am still out on this one....you are trying to catch a falling knife. The American companies have stupidly high P/E because they are AMERICAN stocks, not CHINA STOCKS which in itself is the biggest oxymoron there is. GEt out now fellows, SPWR will be in the teens by years end. The China solars will also take at least a 60-70 % hit when they go into recession just following the US later this year. Solar is a piece of our energy puzzle, but it is in no way the next "MSFT"

On another note, how can you keep sceaming "buy buy buy" when the stock is losing 6-7% a day? It is going down for a reason, and it isn't a "screaming buy" at 40 or 35 especially if you bought it in the 50's. That is a 30% loss in my book and you my friend are no trader with a recomendation like that.

I am shorting every solar, mostly with puts as there aren't any more shares available to short (etrade) but I still held my core 2000 shares of SPWR that has come into the money again and I will ride this one dfown for the next 2 years.

So far my rec's are doing better than yours my friend, and anyone listening to this hogwash to go long will lose their shirts.