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  • Brazil, the Bovespa Index, PBR and Me [View article]
    whiteowl absolutely correct, the currency moves just prior to the equities - look at the Yen/S&P correlation that's enlightening... and if you're watching volumes, buying started just before Heebners announcement in the options perhaps off the currency(?). For money management purposes, with a $7-$8 gain in your short, I always trail a stop for half the gain so that if it turns on me like this one, you get out with at least half your profit. Tough one, but the damage is minimal which means an "affordable" learning experience.
    May 2 07:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon's Record $9.32 Billion Q1 Income Taxes: Update [View article]
    These are relatively small profit margins. One should note that the federal and state governments that tack on their percentage "profited" the most from every gallon of gas sold. All the way along the value chain. Without a modicum of risk.
    May 1 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sticking with North American Palladium [View article]
    I feel your pain. I've adapted to it by just trailing stops and taking extra Maalox.
    Apr 30 07:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FHA: Who Says The Subprime Party's Over? - Housing Tracker [View article]
    Could the 40 year conventional mortgage be far behind? That would lower monthly payments in combination with the Dodd-Frank proposal. And could result in less of a write down.
    Apr 30 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Bears Outnumber Bulls; Don't Expect $4/Gallon to Be a Tipping Point [View article]
    Even an attempt at expanded production, a stoppage in rate reductions, (possibly an increase in rates?) and a stronger dollar would help take the starch out of oil prices. But at this point, jawboning is over, action must be taken.
    Apr 29 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are US Inflationary Concerns Inflated? [View article] has the unmodified CPI figures and it is enlightening.
    Apr 29 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC Signals U.S. Rally [View article]
    the government's profit on oil and gas sales is greater than any oil company - the gas tax should be curtailed. Along with cessation of rate increases. Apparently the administration feels that monetizing the debt exceeds the importance of affordable food and fuel.
    Apr 29 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bloody Knife Used to Gut Bear Stearns? [View article]
    Wow. So the Fed got a two-fer by guaranteeing the Bear's garbage which was actually JPMs? That must've been some very interesting conversation over that weekend. One wonders who was next in that Ponzi chain after JPM.
    Apr 29 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Buy a Bank (and Other Beaten-Down Stocks) [View article]
    Uncertain as I am about which financial to buy, I'm scaling into the UVU, ultra value ETF which is heavily weighted to financials.
    Apr 28 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasuries: Profiting From the Bear's Next Victim [View article]
    Direxion funds also has a 2.5X Inverse Bear & Bull for the 10 year note. Just wish there were such an ETF.
    Apr 28 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Think Long and Hard About Extending Those Bush Tax Cuts [View article]
    I'm in agreement with both posts above. These rate cuts increased revenues to the treasury demonstrably. If you let them expire, it will accelerate the downward pressure on treasuries (drive rates up).
    The depreciation of the dollar is an obvious policy decision whether stated or not.

    To the author's thesis: Increasing marginal tax rates will result in fewer taxable transactions and correspondingly lower revenue. If I know it will cost me more next year, I might accelerate the transactions this fiscal year, but I will be loathe to do so when marginal rates increase, and perhaps borrow against that asset instead. That will necessitate a rise in rates and a strengthening of the dollar whether intended or not.
    Apr 28 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Positioning For Further Dollar Weakness [View article]
    I agree with Ames, I think we'll see a little more strengthening in the dollar (a la dead cat bounce) I don't see them lowering much more though which "may" put something of a floor under the $. Regardless, longer term, rates head higher either by policy or by force of the market - better play is short the 10 year -I'm long a double inverse 10 year fund.
    Apr 27 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Notes About The Fed [View article] has a fantastic set of statistics that track the true CPI and peg it at around 7% which feels a lot more realistic.
    Apr 25 01:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: The World Is Going Macintosh [View article]
    I used Mac's in the 80's, left for PC's in the 90s, and am back to Macs in the 2000s. Pretty much following Jobs, I guess. the plug and play, interoperability, etc. all work in the firms favor - just wish I'd backed up the truck further in 2001/02 for more stock.
    My kids take on line course work, downloading podcasts to their shuffles/iPods. They complete the coursework on their Mini's in real time online courses. The Mac experience is seamless, and while certainly the end of dell, it certainly does not bode well for Mr. Softee either.
    Apr 25 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look at REIT-Treasury Yield Spreads (1971- Present) [View article]
    Yields will shoot up, or ought to, we need to increase rates to take the speculation out of these commodities. Otherwise, we should all go long farming.
    Apr 25 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment