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  • What Bernanke Had To Say [View article]
    iThinkBig has an interesting thesis - why not raise in August, rather than October? The outcomes are fairly "certain" as far as they can be so. Dems win huge in Congress, McCain wins, and redistributionist, foolish policies ensue. Raising rates then will not raise the ire of the incoming leftists and would bode well for him when he comes up for renomination.
    Jun 3, 2008. 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CNNMoney’s ‘Depression Comparisons Misguided’ Shows It’s Imminent [View article]
    Okay then, assume we will have a protracted recession/staglation: Where are the investments to be made to maximize return?

    Short Ag; short oil, long Wal Mart and Costco? and what does that expected return look like in such a period - 3-5%? Or just sit in cash?
    Jun 2, 2008. 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wage Inflation on the Horizon [View article]
    Given the extent of globalization in the service economy, I agree that it will occur but slowly.
    Jun 2, 2008. 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing in ETFs to Accommodate Change [View article]
    Regardless of who gets elected, since all are largely liberals, this is a very very likely scenario. We may also see the reductions of dividends in favor of buy backs which might create buying opportunities in formerly high div paying stocks that get sold off in anticipation of, or the result of such a reduction. We may have witnessed the end of a very good period of time to hold dividend paying stocks in taxable accounts.

    For those interested in LPs there is an association of publicly traded partnerships (a lobbying group-shocker!) that publishes a pretty comprehensive list of MLPs etc.

    Best to all.
    Jun 2, 2008. 07:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Park Your Money With GM - Barron's [View article]
    I agree zen, stick with SA and
    Jun 1, 2008. 09:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Compared with Canada, U.S. Economy Looks OK [View article]
    Lavalyn has a very good point. How much is the Canadian GDP a function of the nominal rise in currency/commodities-p... its being overly adjusted - wait for next month's revisions. OR you could elect a bunch of revisionistas like we had with Clinton and Bush who can "adjust as needed."
    May 30, 2008. 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Market Setting Up for a 2nd Half Rally [View article]
    User is absolutely right. What we're heading into is a potential rate increase in october, a strengthening dollar (death to exports, and the currency gains masked as equity appreciation on foreign stocks and US MNCs), an (appropriate) decline in oil and commodities, and I can't recall when rising interest rates helped bank earnings in the face of sucha massive housing inventory glut. Consider the bad news that is yet to come - more write offs, continued bankruptcy and foreclosure headlines that will keep cash on the sidelines, etc.

    The continued preferred play is to be short the long side of the yield curve and albeit nimbly, long the dollar.
    May 30, 2008. 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iShares Austria: Exposure to Rapid Growth in Post-Communist Europe [View article]
    I had been in EUROX for the same reason but this ETF has much greater appeal and concentration in an area that is the epicenter of the "flat tax" experiment - New Czech, Ukraine, etc.
    Best to all.
    May 29, 2008. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation: It Could Be Worse - A Lot Worse [View article]
    When one adjusts for all the "adjustments" made to the calculation displayed in the graph, it already is worse..much worse.
    May 29, 2008. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will American Realize the World Has Changed? [View article]
    Read Ritholtz's article today on this topic - I love this guy's "smash mouth" logic and writing style.
    May 29, 2008. 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Agriculture Bull Keeps Getting Stronger [View article]
    there continues to be apull back from highs, since wheat, etc went hyperbolic. I'm hoping for a bigger correction this summer before this bull heads back up.
    May 27, 2008. 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will American Realize the World Has Changed? [View article]
    We have the resources and the labor, but not the leadership... The commentary on this article has been excellent with few points I can really disagree with but we do have certain "inconvenient truths" that can keep the US competitive (note not a superpower, that's over).
    1) stop the asinine military expansion - withdraw from NATO, and Japan - they're big boys and can defend their own interests.
    2) Energy policy - let's get one - we are the Saudi Arabia of coal and natural gas and for now, that might be the less than optimal way to go until the nuclear plants can be built for our electric cars.
    3) Econ. policy - embrace the JFK approach - low taxes, reasonable interest rates.
    4) Stop electing lawyers.

    Best to all...
    May 27, 2008. 10:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dollar Holiday Blues [View article]
    Nominal GDP at 1% and nominal inflation at 6% is no way to run a country though - we need a Volcker type cure soon.
    May 27, 2008. 07:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Raising Margin Requirements May Spike Oil Prices Higher [View article]
    And with regard to a political fix, let's start electing small business owners(who know the value of a buck), retired military (who know the value of a life), and farmers (who know the value of everything else) to Congress, rather than electing "know nothing" lawyers, perhaps that's a reasonable place to start.
    May 27, 2008. 07:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Raising Margin Requirements May Spike Oil Prices Higher [View article]
    Outstanding! Your thesis regarding a short covering rally is amazingly logical. The time frame then, if I understand it correctly, would be around a political or CFTC(?) decision to raise margin. The only "low" risk play then on the oil is a strangle to catch an extreme swing down, or up.
    May 27, 2008. 07:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment