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  • Has The Opportunity In Yahoo Passed?  [View article]
    Well, between the initial BABA price, assuming YHOO selling the max allotment and the retained stake, the market now values core YHOO at less than zero, a lot less. Worse, everyone now knows it. This seems like a serious vote of no confidence in management to me. Despite that I feel there may be more downside to go (30s if not mid upper 20s), I no longer like the risk/reward of being short due to event risk. Given the volume, there's got to be some supportive buying in there by an "activist" or two who recognize such an obvious imbalance. Given these factors, any remaining shorts should be getting outta here because, for my money, YAHOO is officially activist chum in the takeover/breakup water. How can an Icahn or other fund possibly resist? Hell, Yahoo sports (my fave) is probably $2 billion alone.

    Lots to think about this weekend, but I am (profitably) closing my long puts on YHOO and will be looking at selling some next week.

    Sep 19, 2014. 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has The Opportunity In Yahoo Passed?  [View article]
    That is precisely the debate in my head. As some have alluded to here, the parts are worth way more than what YHOO is trading at, but only a formal declaration of a "spinout" of the various businesses would get you to the real value. YHOO is falling as of now (which is kind of what I thought - that perhaps BABA is already in the YHOO price and now it will be judged on its own-plus a boatload of cash), but if you want growth, buy BABA. You want to own a cigarette company that makes money and pays a divvie, keep yahoo. But expect the valuation to decline.
    Sep 19, 2014. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: How The Bulls Got It So Wrong  [View article]
    You're right to be contrarily bullish on GTAT, around 9 bucks.
    Sep 17, 2014. 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has The Opportunity In Yahoo Passed?  [View article]
    that would be an embarrassing failure, and also not an unreasonable outcome depending on where it ends up on the IPO... imagine the selling that would ensue....
    Sep 17, 2014. 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has The Opportunity In Yahoo Passed?  [View article]
    yahoo has virtually no core growth prospects as a business that makes it appealing. 2% revenue, if they're lucky and flat earnings... does that merit at 35 PE? If yahoo buys back stock (at these prices?!!) that would be a lousy use of this windfall... No, YHOO's value is as a portfolio of assets, yahoo japan, yahoo sports, alibaba... the only way for that value to be truly unleashed is these components get spun out, but I've heard nothing of the sort and really only that would make me want to hold onto shares after this great run back towhere it was in about 06.... I saw one analyst say such a portfolio "unleashed" would bring 70+ a share in value, but I'm uncertain whether such a break up would ever happen.
    Sep 17, 2014. 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has The Opportunity In Yahoo Passed?  [View article]
    You're a great writer - excellent analysis and presentation. I look forward to future articles!
    Sep 17, 2014. 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patiently Waiting For Mean Reversion  [View article]
    We are in a bubble, in bonds, real rates are certainly negative, but as long as accomodation stays, nominals will continue to lower....
    Sep 17, 2014. 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has The Opportunity In Yahoo Passed?  [View article]
    Where were all these wizards when yahoo was at 14? initiating a position at 35? no. limited upside from here, terrible idea. I tiered into yahoo (basis around 16) and have been steadily selling calls and underlying into this alibaba mania and am holding puts in the 40s (very small, but putting the money where the mouth is) After the IPO, YHOO, will head steadily south... what do you have without alibaba? a flat revenue, cash jar and once they pay out the portion they say they will, this stock will be in the 20s at best... if Meyer wanted to really capture some value for shareholders , she'd blow out the company in conjunction with the alibaba sale and spin out yahoo sports, etc the only way the stock moves up from post-baba is a breakup otherwise, it's more like AOL in its "hey day."
    Sep 17, 2014. 08:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: Is The Street Missing Forest For The Trees?  [View article]
    One more point on the puts available on GTAT - The Jan 2015 $10 puts are selling for $1.10-$1.35 which would give you an $8.90-$8.65 entry point (worst case!) which is another 20%+ down from it's current price this morning at $11.36. Which gives you two nice options either 1) you take in some nice premium in 120 days.... just saying.. or 2) you get a pretty nice entry point on a company with substantially undervalued assets and sources of future growth...
    Sep 16, 2014. 09:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: Is The Street Missing Forest For The Trees?  [View article]
    AS much of a "fan" as I am of GTAT, management has demonstrated an inability to hit its numbers in the past and have sometimes inflicted the damage themselves (see the inventory write off)...this stock was $3 not long ago, and even if this were just a technical sell off, heading back under 10 would not be unreasonable a 50% retracement. GTAT is a stock you need to look DEEPLY at and really study. It's a fantastic engineering firm with very, very smart engineers and some sales engineer types (their finance function, not so bright, meh, thankfully their last CFO left but this new guy I don't know). Long story short, I'm long options and the stock, I've sold some, hedged some, but I would LOVE to see this stock below 10 again so I could buy more. The analyst that mentioned US sales, not a very relevant question, this is a GLOBAL company, he should have asked about their sales in Korea, China and growth in the middle east which is the growth space for them. AAPL is a great feather for them, and a growth engine ultimately, but there are many arrows in the quiver of this company. Recommendation? Buy lower if you can, sell some puts to get a better entry point.
    Sep 16, 2014. 08:13 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dunkin' Donuts Is Expanding In The Right Direction  [View article]
    @author VERY good point on the demographic/ethnic component to DD's growth... one that is not discussed as often as a growth component with serious legs as they expand West. This is also the case in Texas/Houston area.
    Jun 15, 2014. 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merrimack: Opportunity To Increase Share Price By 100% In 2014  [View article]
    OUTSTANDING call on this.... Well done!
    May 1, 2014. 09:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Heisenberg principle at work in small caps and value?  [View news story]
    I thought it the Heisenberg principle was when all else fails, make meth in the desert? THEN go have dessert....
    Apr 22, 2014. 02:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Biogen A Value Stock Yet?  [View article]
    It's a GREAT company with great products. It also has a GREAT big gap at $250...which is where it's heading... I long for the days of 2010 (not long ago) when it floundered in the high 40s/50s.... This is effectively a 10 bagger in less than 5 years, and a correction of substance (50%) back to the 180s is not only reasonable, but appropriate. It has a tremendous pipeline and is very dependent (obviously) on government reimbursement rates which to me are the sole data points you need to watch for the next few years as their products come on line.
    Apr 15, 2014. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coal names higher as Consol raises coal production outlook  [View news story]
    Too late for JRCC... may it R.I.P.
    Apr 8, 2014. 11:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment