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  • Has The Opportunity In Yahoo Passed? [View article]
    Where were all these wizards when yahoo was at 14? initiating a position at 35? no. limited upside from here, terrible idea. I tiered into yahoo (basis around 16) and have been steadily selling calls and underlying into this alibaba mania and am holding puts in the 40s (very small, but putting the money where the mouth is) After the IPO, YHOO, will head steadily south... what do you have without alibaba? a flat revenue, cash jar and once they pay out the portion they say they will, this stock will be in the 20s at best... if Meyer wanted to really capture some value for shareholders , she'd blow out the company in conjunction with the alibaba sale and spin out yahoo sports, etc the only way the stock moves up from post-baba is a breakup otherwise, it's more like AOL in its "hey day."
    Sep 17, 2014. 08:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: Is The Street Missing Forest For The Trees? [View article]
    One more point on the puts available on GTAT - The Jan 2015 $10 puts are selling for $1.10-$1.35 which would give you an $8.90-$8.65 entry point (worst case!) which is another 20%+ down from it's current price this morning at $11.36. Which gives you two nice options either 1) you take in some nice premium in 120 days.... just saying.. or 2) you get a pretty nice entry point on a company with substantially undervalued assets and sources of future growth...
    Sep 16, 2014. 09:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: Is The Street Missing Forest For The Trees? [View article]
    AS much of a "fan" as I am of GTAT, management has demonstrated an inability to hit its numbers in the past and have sometimes inflicted the damage themselves (see the inventory write off)...this stock was $3 not long ago, and even if this were just a technical sell off, heading back under 10 would not be unreasonable a 50% retracement. GTAT is a stock you need to look DEEPLY at and really study. It's a fantastic engineering firm with very, very smart engineers and some sales engineer types (their finance function, not so bright, meh, thankfully their last CFO left but this new guy I don't know). Long story short, I'm long options and the stock, I've sold some, hedged some, but I would LOVE to see this stock below 10 again so I could buy more. The analyst that mentioned US sales, not a very relevant question, this is a GLOBAL company, he should have asked about their sales in Korea, China and growth in the middle east which is the growth space for them. AAPL is a great feather for them, and a growth engine ultimately, but there are many arrows in the quiver of this company. Recommendation? Buy lower if you can, sell some puts to get a better entry point.
    Sep 16, 2014. 08:13 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dunkin' Donuts Is Expanding In The Right Direction [View article]
    @author VERY good point on the demographic/ethnic component to DD's growth... one that is not discussed as often as a growth component with serious legs as they expand West. This is also the case in Texas/Houston area.
    Jun 15, 2014. 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merrimack: Opportunity To Increase Share Price By 100% In 2014 [View article]
    OUTSTANDING call on this.... Well done!
    May 1, 2014. 09:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Heisenberg principle at work in small caps and value? [View news story]
    I thought it the Heisenberg principle was when all else fails, make meth in the desert? THEN go have dessert....
    Apr 22, 2014. 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Biogen A Value Stock Yet? [View article]
    It's a GREAT company with great products. It also has a GREAT big gap at $250...which is where it's heading... I long for the days of 2010 (not long ago) when it floundered in the high 40s/50s.... This is effectively a 10 bagger in less than 5 years, and a correction of substance (50%) back to the 180s is not only reasonable, but appropriate. It has a tremendous pipeline and is very dependent (obviously) on government reimbursement rates which to me are the sole data points you need to watch for the next few years as their products come on line.
    Apr 15, 2014. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coal names higher as Consol raises coal production outlook [View news story]
    Too late for JRCC... may it R.I.P.
    Apr 8, 2014. 11:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hyperion: A Game-Changer For GT Advanced Technologies? [View article]
    Well said DD. Here here!
    Apr 4, 2014. 12:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hyperion: A Game-Changer For GT Advanced Technologies? [View article]
    I would argue that they were recovering prior to the apple announcement and a look back at their acquisitions would indicate to me that they had the foresight to recognize the potential of sapphire beyond the current use at the time. As to financial analysis, when I find a cool company like this, I tend to do my own largely keep it to myself. I would recommend you fire up Excel, put on the eye glasses (I need to) and look deep at the financials and footnotes. They are reasonably diversified with good contracts suppllying the big buyers. They acquire smart and at a discount and typically are focused on good IP oriented value. Additionallyl because many of their sales are long lead, they get massive deposits for their contracts, often not refundable. They're doing cool things in the middle east now as well. If I recall correctly, their drop was due to a write down of inventory (which if you did any reasonable analysis you could see coming) and the general malaise of the sector, but it was a classic event buy opportunity.
    Apr 4, 2014. 12:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hyperion: A Game-Changer For GT Advanced Technologies? [View article]
    The engineering side of GTAT seems to be able to effect mind blowing levels of change and the acquisition team at GTAT seems to be able to regularly find deeply buried gems that have tremendous potential. They seem lead in pretty much every niche area, or have a strong strategic advantage, they enter. I have not seen a sum of the parts analysis on this company, but clearly it was hammered into the 3s (and I am long at that level up to 10). It's possible that even having recovered it is still substantially undervalued given the strategic IP oriented acquisitions it has made, coupled with exceptional engineering prowess. (And some damn good sales people too.) :-)
    Apr 3, 2014. 03:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reconciling Rival Views Of Afrezza, And How To Play The Post-AdCom Surge [View article]
    Increased probability of a secondary offering (NWBO style?) given the pop?
    Apr 2, 2014. 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 7-Year Cycle That Will Crush Uninformed Investors, Again [View article]
    BND did have a fairly steep drop in 2008/2009 but recovered quite nicely and has been a reasonable cash proxy since albeit with borderline painful yields.

    While I am in general agreement with the author, I'm concerned you couldn't sell ZROZ for lack of liquidity, not even in 2009, which is when the fund started, especially after a significant sell off where ZROZ would very likely perform well and you'd be sitting on dry powder. Over shorter ranges of time, it is fairly inversely correlated with equity indexes and I use it in my own allocation model. I like both ZROZ and IEF/TLT for periodically rebalancing against equities, ie.. quarterly.

    Overall, if you really think that 2014 is the "end", and I do, then cash is a perfectly appropriate place to be and perhaps small (less than 5% of total portfolio) opportunistic defined risk plays with a no greater than 1 year timeframe.
    Mar 25, 2014. 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Fiddle While FireEye Burns... [View article]
    LOL @ "only 30x revenue" I remember those days as well, and when being "pre-revenue" was for the "cool" startups... :-)

    Excellent comparison to the market cap to market "opportunity" as well, if that doesn't put it in perspective, what does?
    Mar 24, 2014. 09:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • PKW: Playing The Stock Buyback Effect [View article]
    Yup - that one just got mentioned on CNBC too, so unfortunately word is out. :-) Stepping back, you can look at PKW as your allocation to large caps and CSD to small cap as well. Hedging if needed with DIA or IWM puts where appropriate.

    Re: NFO - haven't looked at it - thanks for the tip!
    Mar 11, 2014. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment