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  • Hyperion: A Game-Changer For GT Advanced Technologies?  [View article]
    Well said DD. Here here!
    Apr 4, 2014. 12:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hyperion: A Game-Changer For GT Advanced Technologies?  [View article]
    I would argue that they were recovering prior to the apple announcement and a look back at their acquisitions would indicate to me that they had the foresight to recognize the potential of sapphire beyond the current use at the time. As to financial analysis, when I find a cool company like this, I tend to do my own largely keep it to myself. I would recommend you fire up Excel, put on the eye glasses (I need to) and look deep at the financials and footnotes. They are reasonably diversified with good contracts suppllying the big buyers. They acquire smart and at a discount and typically are focused on good IP oriented value. Additionallyl because many of their sales are long lead, they get massive deposits for their contracts, often not refundable. They're doing cool things in the middle east now as well. If I recall correctly, their drop was due to a write down of inventory (which if you did any reasonable analysis you could see coming) and the general malaise of the sector, but it was a classic event buy opportunity.
    Apr 4, 2014. 12:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hyperion: A Game-Changer For GT Advanced Technologies?  [View article]
    The engineering side of GTAT seems to be able to effect mind blowing levels of change and the acquisition team at GTAT seems to be able to regularly find deeply buried gems that have tremendous potential. They seem lead in pretty much every niche area, or have a strong strategic advantage, they enter. I have not seen a sum of the parts analysis on this company, but clearly it was hammered into the 3s (and I am long at that level up to 10). It's possible that even having recovered it is still substantially undervalued given the strategic IP oriented acquisitions it has made, coupled with exceptional engineering prowess. (And some damn good sales people too.) :-)
    Apr 3, 2014. 03:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reconciling Rival Views Of Afrezza, And How To Play The Post-AdCom Surge  [View article]
    Increased probability of a secondary offering (NWBO style?) given the pop?
    Apr 2, 2014. 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 7-Year Cycle That Will Crush Uninformed Investors, Again  [View article]
    BND did have a fairly steep drop in 2008/2009 but recovered quite nicely and has been a reasonable cash proxy since albeit with borderline painful yields.

    While I am in general agreement with the author, I'm concerned you couldn't sell ZROZ for lack of liquidity, not even in 2009, which is when the fund started, especially after a significant sell off where ZROZ would very likely perform well and you'd be sitting on dry powder. Over shorter ranges of time, it is fairly inversely correlated with equity indexes and I use it in my own allocation model. I like both ZROZ and IEF/TLT for periodically rebalancing against equities, ie.. quarterly.

    Overall, if you really think that 2014 is the "end", and I do, then cash is a perfectly appropriate place to be and perhaps small (less than 5% of total portfolio) opportunistic defined risk plays with a no greater than 1 year timeframe.
    Mar 25, 2014. 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Fiddle While FireEye Burns...  [View article]
    LOL @ "only 30x revenue" I remember those days as well, and when being "pre-revenue" was for the "cool" startups... :-)

    Excellent comparison to the market cap to market "opportunity" as well, if that doesn't put it in perspective, what does?
    Mar 24, 2014. 09:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • PKW: Playing The Stock Buyback Effect  [View article]
    Yup - that one just got mentioned on CNBC too, so unfortunately word is out. :-) Stepping back, you can look at PKW as your allocation to large caps and CSD to small cap as well. Hedging if needed with DIA or IWM puts where appropriate.

    Re: NFO - haven't looked at it - thanks for the tip!
    Mar 11, 2014. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PKW: Playing The Stock Buyback Effect  [View article]
    I like the PKW as a theme. I also hold CSD as a play on spinoffs another theme I like.
    Mar 5, 2014. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thank You For Riding The MannKind Catalyst Train - Please Exit Safely At The Next Available Station  [View article]
    the premium is quite nice on those puts as well, would finance a nice vertical call spread quite handily.
    Feb 28, 2014. 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Worry About Being 'Right'; Focus On Risk Vs. Reward  [View article]
    Jake, really thoughtful and well articulated.

    Risk/reward/timing (is it cheap enough), seemingly so easy to incorporate into one's thinking, so hard to execute.
    Jan 20, 2014. 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife controversy rages as stock marches higher  [View news story]
    Isn't it the FTC's job to determine whether it's a pyramid scam, not the SEC's? The auditor is saying that the financials are "fairly stated in all material respects" but you could say the same about an offshore gambling operation. If the books are substantially accurate, you get a clean opinion.
    Dec 17, 2013. 12:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3M Co declares $0.855 dividend  [View news story]
    Yup, I'm kicking vigorously as well...
    Dec 17, 2013. 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northwest Biotherapeutics plunges after offering prices at $4.80  [View news story]
    this was just profoundly bad advice somewhere, why not change the price and offer at $6.50 or something along that line... seems like a lot of money left on the table...
    Nov 20, 2013. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 0% Bond Allocation Is Weak  [View article]
    Value is where you find it. Stocks, bonds, REITs, etc. The whole don't ever buy these equities, don't buy bonds or those treasuries,because of XYZ etc. is just zealotry and a hindrance to finding good instruments that generate good return.
    Nov 7, 2013. 11:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harris Corp.: A Defense Contractor The U.S. Military Cannot Function Without  [View article]
    Really good article. IDIQ's are tough though, you never really know when you're going to get the orders, and I'm not sure how much forward guidance the company can give on those. However, it and CACI are both acquisition candidates with very solid contracts and any company that grows top line in this space is one worth watching.
    Nov 7, 2013. 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment