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  • More on Q2 GDP: What stimulus? Government spending has been a negative to flat contributor to GDP since 2010. [View news story]
    This seems to have been proven in multiple studies. Corporations are accumulating cash and not investing either. Time for radical rethinking!

    Focus government on funding basic research and shoring up SS, (bring back the full payroll tax) initial $50-100 Billion reduction in military spend
    Zero corporate tax rate in exchange for mandatory 12% dividend payout - get the money into the hands of the consumers!!! the only part of the GDP equation that seems to be working.
    Aug 29 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Drought And Food Inflation: Impact Of Corn, Soybean, Ethanol [View article]
    Why is it "inflation" (excess credit chasing scarce goods) and not simply a demand curve shift? (the same credit chasing scarcer goods?)
    Aug 27 02:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Should Stimulate Lending [View article]
    Time for some fiscal policy - recommendation:

    eliminate the corporate income tax entirely based on a one time, $1billion buyout per corporate return.

    Mandate a 9% dividend based on GAAP income as filed with the SEC.

    Achieves multiple objectives, gets cash to the consumer (the only part of the GDP equation that has a multiplier >1 at this point).

    Eliminates corporations from washington DC lobbying (or by quite a bit at least.)

    Get anice big cash injection from very willing companies
    Aug 10 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Head Fake: Don't Trust The Euro [View article]
    Any thoughts on a swiss franc short? they can't allow this level of appreciation for much longer, can they?
    Aug 7 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bonds Are Not Safer Than Blue-Chip Stocks [View article]
    Agreed. I have recommended hoisingtonmgt.com's quarterly newsletter many times as required reading for those who want more info on bonds, rate forecasts and really good Econ 401 fodder. (newsletter is FREE!!).

    Highly recommend any writings by Lacey Hunt, Ph.D. who also works with HM.
    Jul 23 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bull Case For Supervalu Bonds [View article]
    A good bit of debt available under SVU is also Albertsons, et. al. you're buying good brands and getting monster interest payments 12-14% and a potential of 30-50% appreciation. I'll take that.
    Jul 23 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bonds Are Not Safer Than Blue-Chip Stocks [View article]
    There's a time for equities and a time for bonds.... Treasuries have been rallying since the 70s when rates were at 15-18%.... since then we've had significant corrections, 80s, 90s, 2000s, etc. offering many fabulous opportunities to take some of those bond gains and buy equities at outlandish discounts....

    A properly laddered bond port., held to maturity, will protect you sufficiently from any significant "crash" in bond prices which frankly isn't coming any time soon. The Fed must have rates low so that banks can continue to write off mortgage losses into appreciating tier 1 capital (US Treasuries).

    The Fed, and the USD are driving this entire global market, imho, and as the dollar breaks into the 90 handle, the markets will pull back accordingly.

    As such, zeroes, strips, treasuries (even TIPS!) and the USD will remain the safe havens for at least the next few quarters.
    Jul 23 12:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Expedia Is The Top E-Commerce Pick Among Mega Fund Managers [View article]
    Looks like all the EXPE shares were all bought at the end of April which prompted that huge spike from 32 to 40.... with EXPE trading now at 47, I'd be surprised if there were not some measure of profit taking over the next few quarters.... especially given the last two quarters' relatively flat earnings. That said, even if they only make "only" $2.50 for the year, the valuation is not outrageous relative to others... Nevertheless, I expect that huge gap to back fill over the next 6-9 months...if not sooner. and might go long then myself.
    Disclosure: Long EXPE 40-35 Jan14 Put spread.
    Jul 21 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10-Year Treasuries Telling A Much Scarier Story Than Stocks [View article]
    Interesting view on the need for treasuries by banks...

    http://bit.ly/Nf6Bmp
    Jul 17 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10-Year Treasuries Telling A Much Scarier Story Than Stocks [View article]
    Zeroes and strips (see also ETF: ZROZ) is also performing incredibly.
    Jul 17 10:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10-Year Treasuries Telling A Much Scarier Story Than Stocks [View article]
    Agreed but where is it coming from?

    C, G, I or N? the coefficient of G is negative to zero at best, I seems weak, N also weak with a strong dollar, C is tenuous as private savings/debt reduction seems to be increasing Add in the tax multiplier effect (estimated at about 3 by Christy Romer one of the best studies I've seen) which would also put pressure on C... what's left?

    Look at the MV side of it - M may be increasing but if it is, given the very weak growth, that means V is declining to flat (barely above zero?)

    a great article on this at hoisingtonmgt.com gives a wonderful macro summary on it.

    My two cents? Have corporations pay a one time fee to buy their way out of the corporate tax, I mean Zero corporate tax by paying a one time exit tax of say 3--5% of cash and equivalents on hand. Then require a mandatory dividend payout in lieu of taxes of at least 8% and tax that at regular income rates (no more special dividend rate).

    I think that would trigger a wave of Consumption and get Velocity going again and put money in the hands of the consumers rather than institutions who have been stepping in it for years....
    Jul 17 08:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10-Year Treasuries Telling A Much Scarier Story Than Stocks [View article]
    Exactly, and if they're putting that kind of pressure on treasuries, you can expect yields to stay very low... because as also stated above, that money is sitting in the bank, not in circulation...

    couple that with some of the highest bid to cover ratios in a long time and you've got demand driving bond prices higher.... This would be the time for the treasury to issue 40/50 year bonds at 2% and get out from under the ever present risk of this short term financing....
    Jul 17 08:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Upset Alert As Marissa Mayer Takes Over Yahoo [View article]
    Harvard, ready your case study documenters.... if she turns this around, she will be right up there with the best of them...
    Jul 16 05:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Bing Sink Nokia And Windows Phone? [View article]
    LOL I would move, bro. :-)
    Jul 16 01:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why And How I'm Shorting Treasuries [View article]
    Betting against the fed, not sucha good plan. I've lost track of the number of articles shorting treasuries, and every time it's blown up in the author's face.

    In a climate of uncertainty, fear, criminal manipulation, treasuries are still the only full faith and credit instrument available as a shelter from the storm.

    A long treasury portfolio had wonderful returns last year, and it will likely repeat this year.
    Eventually, you may be right, but not this year, or likely next either.
    Hell, you might just even by TIP and come back in 2014.
    Jul 16 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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