Arena's (ARNA) shares have been flying recently and are up another 3.1% today. While the FDA is expected to soon approve Arena's weight loss drug lorcaserin, market players aren't totally sure why shares are rocketing. One reason could be short covering, and another optimism that the FDA approval will come without the need for a risk-management plan. [View news story]
Any sense as to whether this is going to be a buy the rumor sell the news situation? I have a toe in this one but my concern is that much of this seems to be a foregone conclusion and I'd use the pullback to get long.
Biogen (BIIB +0.3%) hovers in the green on positive comments out of BMO Capital this morning. The firm believe the stock is poised to move higher due to several upcoming catalysts, including the company's R&D day on June 12 and two upcoming data releases. The firm expects the stock to make a move towards $145 over the near term. [View news story]
This is spot on - this company's portfolio, now streamlined, is poised for substantial organic growth. (yes, I'm long BIIB).
Their response to the PML findings will be studied for years for how a potentially great drug was threatened, the threat understood, addressed, and collaboratively resolved including with the regulatory process.
How Dividends Could Yield 30%+ Annually Over The Next Decade (Or Two) [View article]
You bring up an interesting tradeoff - with all the issues surrounding college debt etc. consider the following scenario:
Instead of paying $30K/yr for college (assuming 4 years), I put in $20K into good dvy stocks that my child cannot touch for 20 years (age 42). (so a total of $80K over 4 years). Perhaps the child takes different jobs, starts his/her own business or takes longer to get through college, paying out of pocket etc. but no debt at the end) imagine how much more valuable that investment is by comparison vs the traditional student loan approach when an equivalent debt burdened student reaches age 42. I don't think I'm alone in considering those options by any stretch.
Morgan Stanley: Exceptional Franchise At 50% Of Intrinsic Value [View article]
I hear you, I'm simply uncertain as to why investors believe it when these firms say they mark securities to market. Mark to model is still very much the mode of operation imho.
Morgan Stanley: Exceptional Franchise At 50% Of Intrinsic Value [View article]
Consider what a 20% cut to their current underlying and what that does to notional exposures in the CDS's etc. Fear in this space is still substantial, a buying signal to be sure, but there's still fear, a lack of trust, and a general sense that somewhere there's another shoe waiting to drop.
S&P futures are slightly in the green now following the 8:30 data dump. The inflation numbers are benefiting from falling oil prices and jobless claims show a slight deterioration in the employment picture. Sounds like a recipe for the QE drums to start beating. [View news story]
If there is QE3, it will be the greatest selling opportunity of the year and I will go to 95% cash, 5% metals, and be ready to short.
Is There A 'Perfect' Investment For Every Market? [View article]
One of the most thoughtful, personal, and effective articles I've read on SA. As someone a few years and gray hairs behind you on that same trajectory, gave me some very good insight and perspective.
Philip Morris Smokes The Competition With A High 14% Dividend Growth Rate [View article]
So in other words,the governments profit more from the production of tobacco than the actual producers. It seems to me that's quite an incentive to keep this cozy relationship going.
Safe No More: The Impending Collapse Of The Treasury Bond Bubble [View article]
Having seen others try this and been soundly throttled, I wonder if it's still not too early. As long as the world is deleveraging, the euro is fracturing, China slowing, etc. there is no motivation to raise rates. Look at hoisingtonmgt.com's commentary (free) - I'm not associated with the firm in any way, they've just been very very consistent and correct in their forecasts of lower yields and I'm a big admirer of Lacey Hunt's work.
To be short bonds here, you are simultaneously fighting the Fed and expecting a significant upturn in equities and recovery in economies. You are also fighting demand with bid to covers of 3.8 not long ago. That has to change significantly, and none of which seem to have high probabilities.
Ultimately, yes, of course you'll be right, eventually, and bonds will be yielding 15-18% a la 1974, in the meantime, the more likely course for bond prices, such as the 10YT, is up.
Coal Production Cut Bullish For Coal Stocks [View article]
In my experience, bonds typically lead, but that's another article for another day.
Long story short, I like the yields on cash, and when equities get beaten down like jrcc, aci etc. as you have correctly identified here, I look for 12-15% yields and a solid, greater than inflation type, capital gain upside while you wait for the recovery. Certainly not as much as the potential for the equity. I just like the preference higher up the cap structure especially when I don't have to pay a significant premium for it.
Arena's (ARNA) shares have been flying recently and are up another 3.1% today. While the FDA is expected to soon approve Arena's weight loss drug lorcaserin, market players aren't totally sure why shares are rocketing. One reason could be short covering, and another optimism that the FDA approval will come without the need for a risk-management plan. [View news story]
Biogen (BIIB +0.3%) hovers in the green on positive comments out of BMO Capital this morning. The firm believe the stock is poised to move higher due to several upcoming catalysts, including the company's R&D day on June 12 and two upcoming data releases. The firm expects the stock to make a move towards $145 over the near term. [View news story]
Their response to the PML findings will be studied for years for how a potentially great drug was threatened, the threat understood, addressed, and collaboratively resolved including with the regulatory process.
How Dividends Could Yield 30%+ Annually Over The Next Decade (Or Two) [View article]
How Dividends Could Yield 30%+ Annually Over The Next Decade (Or Two) [View article]
Instead of paying $30K/yr for college (assuming 4 years), I put in $20K into good dvy stocks that my child cannot touch for 20 years (age 42). (so a total of $80K over 4 years). Perhaps the child takes different jobs, starts his/her own business or takes longer to get through college, paying out of pocket etc. but no debt at the end) imagine how much more valuable that investment is by comparison vs the traditional student loan approach when an equivalent debt burdened student reaches age 42. I don't think I'm alone in considering those options by any stretch.
5 Reasons To Buy Ironwood Pharmaceuticals [View article]
Morgan Stanley: Exceptional Franchise At 50% Of Intrinsic Value [View article]
Morgan Stanley: Exceptional Franchise At 50% Of Intrinsic Value [View article]
Consider what a 20% cut to their current underlying and what that does to notional exposures in the CDS's etc. Fear in this space is still substantial, a buying signal to be sure, but there's still fear, a lack of trust, and a general sense that somewhere there's another shoe waiting to drop.
S&P futures are slightly in the green now following the 8:30 data dump. The inflation numbers are benefiting from falling oil prices and jobless claims show a slight deterioration in the employment picture. Sounds like a recipe for the QE drums to start beating. [View news story]
Is There A 'Perfect' Investment For Every Market? [View article]
Thanks!
Philip Morris Smokes The Competition With A High 14% Dividend Growth Rate [View article]
Tobacco Sector: Going Up In Smoke? [View article]
Tobacco Sector: Going Up In Smoke? [View article]
Tobacco Sector: Going Up In Smoke? [View article]
Safe No More: The Impending Collapse Of The Treasury Bond Bubble [View article]
To be short bonds here, you are simultaneously fighting the Fed and expecting a significant upturn in equities and recovery in economies. You are also fighting demand with bid to covers of 3.8 not long ago. That has to change significantly, and none of which seem to have high probabilities.
Ultimately, yes, of course you'll be right, eventually, and bonds will be yielding 15-18% a la 1974, in the meantime, the more likely course for bond prices, such as the 10YT, is up.
Long ZROZ; TLT, UUP
Coal Production Cut Bullish For Coal Stocks [View article]
Long story short, I like the yields on cash, and when equities get beaten down like jrcc, aci etc. as you have correctly identified here, I look for 12-15% yields and a solid, greater than inflation type, capital gain upside while you wait for the recovery. Certainly not as much as the potential for the equity. I just like the preference higher up the cap structure especially when I don't have to pay a significant premium for it.
Long ACI, JRCC stock and bonds