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  • Can Broadband China Save Alcatel-Lucent? [View article]
    One competitor, Huawei, is not mentioned in the article, though I see that Scablqu did note them, I completely agree with his scenario.... they will steal every ounce of tech, like they did with cisco, and take any market share ALU may have hoped for.
    Jul 15 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Happens If And When The Interest Rate Rises? [View article]
    Seems we're fighting the Fed here, rates won't be heading up for some time.... until debt is reduced, consumption returns, and government spending slows (assuming a negative coefficient there in a recessive economy) there's little impetus for rate increases...
    Jul 12 08:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Coal Miner Is The Next To Bankruptcy Protection? [View article]
    ACi's bonds seem to be holding, JRCCs are heading to the cellar which is unfortunate. we'll see how their august earnings report goes....
    Jul 11 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "The debate is now about the strength of the recovery, not whether there is a recovery," writes Bill McBride, as the WSJ catches up with his thinking on housing. Housing construction has quietly added to economic growth for 4 consecutive quarters, new home inventories have returned to 2005 levels, and economists are in near-unanimous agreement. Uh-oh.  [View news story]
    Uh oh is right.... I think the last time things had such consensus would've been regarding the safety of sovereign debt and the solvency of banks in 2007.
    Jul 11 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A fascinating FRBNY study shows nearly all of the S&P 500's return since 1994 has been earned in the 24 hours prior to scheduled FOMC announcements (which occur just 8 times per year!). Going further, excluding the 3-day window before and after scheduled FOMC announcements yields a flat S&P over the last 28 years.  [View news story]
    WOW - don't fight the Fed y'all.
    Jul 11 09:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Centrotherm Photovoltaics Bankruptcy Places Yellow Flag On GT Advanced Technologies [View article]
    This company has some great technologies that are very hard to duplicate, even for the Chinese. The Chinese "low cost" gear that would compete with them, has been known (in the industry) to not work well or produce nowhere near the yields that GTAT's systems do. they've got some really big key customers as well, that could wind up buying them, which I would think would put a floor underneath the stock. I'd like the oppty to buy them in the low 4s again if possible.

    the one problem they do have is perhaps "overly optimistic" forecasts as you noted, which can be seen in their sales/inventory numbers. Perhaps a little more reality and clarity would be a good thing.

    Hoping to get long GTAT.iin the low 4s.

    I would think that a strong dollar would be problematic for them and that may be contributing to the performance as well.
    Jul 11 08:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Active Bear: An ETF That Actually Shorts Real Stocks [View article]
    ZROZ might be a proxy for HDGE but this looks interesting, thanks!
    Jul 10 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beaten up coal names get beaten up some more in wake of the reportedly imminent Patriot Coal bankruptcy filing. Arch (ACI -8%), Peabody (BTU -5.4%), Alpha Natural Resources (ANR -8.5%) The coal ETF, KOL -4.2%. Isn't this the sort of thing that happens at bottoms?  [View news story]
    Not so sure on jrcc, we're revisiting 2007 lows here to be sure, where I bougtht last time... August earnings release will certainly be the indicator.
    Jul 10 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beaten up coal names get beaten up some more in wake of the reportedly imminent Patriot Coal bankruptcy filing. Arch (ACI -8%), Peabody (BTU -5.4%), Alpha Natural Resources (ANR -8.5%) The coal ETF, KOL -4.2%. Isn't this the sort of thing that happens at bottoms?  [View news story]
    I was accused of catching a falling knife way back when GLD fell to 66... it worked out okay....
    Jul 10 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beaten up coal names get beaten up some more in wake of the reportedly imminent Patriot Coal bankruptcy filing. Arch (ACI -8%), Peabody (BTU -5.4%), Alpha Natural Resources (ANR -8.5%) The coal ETF, KOL -4.2%. Isn't this the sort of thing that happens at bottoms?  [View news story]
    OUCH - taking the pain, taking the pain.... I remember these conversations about housing not long ago....

    still long JRCC, ACI,

    Adding ANR...
    Jul 9 03:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Patriot Coal: What A Short Squeeze Looks Like [View article]
    This sector is like homebuilders and banks last year - the most reviled... :-) that said, the bonds of some of these look worth while as do a bounce back on JRCC and ACI....JRCC has traded at these levels before, and I thnk the whole sector will get a major boost if Obama loses the election...if for no other reason than a delay of any further action.... reminds me of tobacco in the 80s/90s....

    Long ACI/JRCC stock and bonds
    Jul 5 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The GlaxoSmithKline Settlement [View article]
    I would hope in this case that the whistleblowers collect their 15% fee and have a wonderful life.

    Why didn't the Internal Audit function pick up on this, and why wasn't it raised to the Board? (Don't bother responding, the question is rhetorical.)
    Jul 4 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Beaten Down, Cash Rich $5 Tech Stock On The Comeback Trail [View article]
    @ author -

    "I have managed to reduce my losses by employing a well-timed option strategy..."

    I really enjoy your articles and your style tends to jive with mine (buying beat up stocks of good companies).. I would really like to hear more, if you have the time, about your approaches/strategies regarding your statement above... I think that's the key arrow in my quiver that is missing.... good ways to reduce losses when the timing is a little off on the entry.
    Jul 4 09:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Beaten Down, Cash Rich $5 Tech Stock On The Comeback Trail [View article]
    this recent power outage disaster in the midatlantic is a great example of why solar could be a good disaster recovery tool for providing low level power while "normal" power is restored, but as a viable power supply, it is 10-20 years away minimum from being a viable alternative. Geothermal is a much better alternative than that, in the meantime, gas, oil and coal are our best options, and any company that comes up with a "catalytic" process to reduce emissions in those sources will be a big winner.
    Jul 4 09:10 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now that Amylin (AMLN) is being sold, Rodman & Renshaw's Michael King says fellow diabetes firms MannKind (MNKD +6.55%) and Vivus (VVUS +0.4%) could be acquisition targets as well. It's worth noting, though, that King's speculation accompanies a mea culpa for being wrong about Amylin, whose assets he described as "mediocre."  [View news story]
    A lot of early stage/3rd phase cos potentially in play with this move... the next round of M&A will clearly be pharma.
    Jul 2 02:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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