tony kent

Total Rating:
0 / 0

4 Comments

    • Thu Jun 26th 14:40 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Maribavir Should Guide Viropharma Higher
      Since my article was published on March 11 a lot of things have happened to the company which has helped the stock rally past my target price.
      I am still positive on their CMV disease drug candidate in phase III and believe the FDA meeting on bioequivalence was a positive for the company. However, I believe it is prudent at this time to sell the stock at $11.26 as the company looks full valued.
      View article »
    • Thu Jun 5th 15:07 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Maribavir Should Guide Viropharma Higher
      Just a quick comment on VPHM. While I am encouraged by the FDA meeting I would use the opportunity of the price move to take some profits at $10.80. The $2.40 profit since I wrote about the stock is significant at 28% plus. I would sell 50% here. Would hold the rest till we get a better feel of what will happen at the meeting.
      View article »
    • Tue Mar 18th 13:36 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Borders "Faces" Higher Sales
      BGP is an extremely cheap stock. While the new concept and restructuring will be in fits and starts the stock at $7.50 is compelling. Assuming the company can get operating margins into the 4.5-5% range by 2010 BGP has earnings power of $1.83-2.00. At 10X EPS which was the companies low EPS in the last 10 years the stock can trade between 18-20. This is valuation is backed up by the $20 price target being equal to 0.03X sales in 2010 which prior to this massive selloff was the p/s low of 2000.

      I have no idea what earnings will look like. But longer term this stock offers good opportunity.
      View article »
    • Thu Mar 13th 15:17 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Town Sports International: Gaining Strength
      Thanks for all the comments.
      First, I am not an employee but a private investor.
      Second, I have been in the WP facility. It is not the best. The company refurbishment plan is starting to upgrade clubs. That is part of the approx. $19MM they are spending this year in cap ex. This upgrade should rectify the situation in clubs like WP that have been falling behind in upkeep.
      Third, as for pricing, in NYC, Crunch charges $99.00 per month standard with different initial fees by type. The yearly is $149 the monthly fee is $49. NYSC charges an initial of $149.00 but has 2 levels of fees for months. The gold at $79.99 and the passport at $99.99. The gold offers a 20% plus discount per month to members. Equinox is much more expensive with fees between 145-165 with start up fees.

      As for trainers, I have visited approximately 25 clubs this year from all club chains. The trainers do not report anything but seasonal issues. And if you look at NYSC training fees they have risen to 11.9% of rev from 9.1% in 2003. Thats a compounded rate of 12.47% versus membership fees rising at 6.75% compounded.
      The move to trainers has been and I believe will continue to offer good revenue growth.

      As for the healthclub industry, it is seeing a steady growth rate above inflation for membership fees. This is due to demographic shifts and emphasis on healthy living. It is a core part of NYSC story that its a slow but stable industry growth profile for them to exploit.

      This is why its ripe for consolidation. While it has modest growth its highly fragmented. No chain controls the overall market. There are mom and pop clubs that have been around for 5 to 20 years that continue to be stable cash flow generators. Places like Club Fit in westchester. This makes rolling them up a story like Staples not a more speculative model. If clubs are acquired at good prices they can be high cash flow accretive.

      Finally, the stock is not at $24 but as of today at $7 and change. Which I beleive offers a good entry point.
      View article »
Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
Quick Links:
Contribute an Article Become a Seeking Alpha Contributor

Transcripts

More Transcripts»