Robert Perrego

http://www.stocktradingcards.com/blog/
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10 Comments

    • Mon Nov 17th 10:17 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Peak Oil's Bell Is Ringing
      Mexico is experiencing a dramatic decline in oil production for the same reason Venezuela is - the leadership started using the oil industry as a cash register and redeployed the funds for their failed social engineering projects and siphoned off the needed reinvestment funds and therefore the producing assets went into decline/disrepair and thus production dropped.

      This trend has recently been reversed as someone with a brain stopped looting the oil firms.

      Get your facts straight.


      On Nov 17 06:15 AM neutrino23 wrote:

      > What makes this even more serious for the US is the Export Land Model.
      > This describes how oil producing countries experience increasing
      > demand and decreasing supply so that exports fall faster than production
      > falls. As large importer what is really important to us is not just
      > worldwide oil supply but the amount of oil available for export.
      >
      >
      > Mexico is a good example. Till recently they were our number two
      > source of imported oil. Mexico is suffering a strong decline in oil
      > production such that their exports will probably reach zero by about
      > 2010 or 2011. Instead of being a supplier they will then compete
      > with us for oil on the world market. As a side note, the Mexican
      > government gets some $60B a year from oil exports. What happens to
      > the stability of our neighbor to the south when those funds dry up?
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 17th 10:13 AM | Rating: +1 -1
      Commented on:
      Peak Oil's Bell Is Ringing
      After reading this article/subject the umpteenth time it seems, at least this guy makes the point that the 'reserves' quoted are oil that is easily pumped. Just as economics is called 'The Dismal Science' in response to Thomas Mathus's dire predictions of the exponential growth in the demand for food vs the limited land available to grow food (therefore we will all starve someday) this peak oil theory is getting to sound like horseshit.

      Lets review...

      Oil sands in Canada and Venezuela - lots and lots of reserves.

      Oil shale - amazing amounts of reserve.

      Alternative energy - limitless in some forms

      So just as Malthus did not anticipate the advance in agricultural technologies applied to farming making each acre phenomenally more productive in food, these peak oil idiots refuse to recognize that there is a LOT more hydrocarbons than they think, that extraction techniques are ever increasing, that other forms of oil - not just the cheap drill a hole and get it - are very abundant and that alternative forms will be come more viable and possible with each passing day, etc...

      The article sounds all gloom and doomish and makes a snappy headline - but please stop publishing them - they are a waste of time to re-read day after day.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 4th 15:48 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is This the Gold Buying Opportunity of a Lifetime?
      Hey Pocket JJ - yes, I am going to say it... 'Told Ya So!'

      Article published Oct 22 - On Oct 23 we got the lowest close in Gold (GLD - 70.65) since Sepetember of 2007.

      Current price 75.47 and looks like a nice classic double bottom. Also indicated I had AUY which closed at $3.62 on the 23rd - current price $5.48 showing a great V-bottom. I expect AUY to go much higher and GLD to never see $70 again.

      Have a nice day
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 23rd 18:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is This the Gold Buying Opportunity of a Lifetime?
      As far as the comment on Bernanke and his knowledge/study of the depression goes - he was asked about it and thats when he got the 'Helicopter Ben' nickname...

      He said its easy - just throw money out of a helicopter.

      Think his answer is to reflate?
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 23rd 12:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is This the Gold Buying Opportunity of a Lifetime?
      Pockets - the Lehman failure was the largest ever and the settlement of the CDS on Lehman debt is to date the largest event in that market (as AIG was 'saved')

      Also reading European banks dumped a ton of gold last week. The bottom is lower for the dow, etc.. The bottom is much closer for gold.

      Start your time slicing.
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 23rd 01:09 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is This the Gold Buying Opportunity of a Lifetime?
      Markets can only be manipulated for so long and as far as Pocket's comments go, for the last month Kitco.com has reported shortages of physical gold coins and I have read many other similar articles across the web.

      The human perception element of value defaults to gold as we are seeing people across the world buy gold coins and lock them away. New Zealand is at 13 year inflation highs AND they just cut rates again. The only way out of this crisis is to re-inflate the system.

      Once the human perception obsession with dollar-down gold-up and vice-versa breaks which will lead to paper-vs-gold as well as those buying jewelry (India especially) readjust to the new levels of gold valuation the upward move will resume.

      These inflationary times are very real and as gold started in human perception as a currency it will come full circle and end up there again as the only thing you can do with paper money when the world is awash with it is wallpaper your walls.

      As far as deleveraging goes, this cycle will reverse as there is a lot of liquidity on the sidelines that will need to be invested again. One of the largest steps of deleveraging are the transformation of traditional broker dealers at 30x and up morphing into the more commercial bank 10x such as Merrill and Goldman with the demise of Bear and Lehman from 30x to zero. The second large move is the contraction of the hedge fund industry which is being quickened by the Lehman CDS settlement and the margin call that went out Wednesday after Tuesdays event hence the market slide Tuesday.

      These were the largest pockets of leverage and they were halfway done when Bear went belly up and Lehman croaked. I suspect the b/d unwinding is 75% complete at least and that the hedge funds are close as well.

      The re-leveraging would be the U.S. Government investing in banks at a 10 to 1 multiplier effect and the TARP. Also, the dollar run up has effectively releveraged the large foreign dollar holdings which will start to flow into the U.S, equity markets soon as the only place you can trult spend a dollar is in the United States with stocks about to be at bargain basement prices. All this has begun such that the simultaneous deleveraging by the b/d's and the hedgies will complete as the releveraging by large foreign holdings of dollars and the bailout programs kick into full gear.

      The bottom is near and after that - inflation takes over.

      Respect to Dr. Nouriel Roubini as his 7,000 Dow prediction is looking much more likely right now. Inverted flag pattern in the Dow is actually targeting mid 6,000's but I suspect the bottom pickers will halt it all at low 7,000's. Think aby of the coming market fear in the event that pattern follows through will flee to gold?
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 22nd 16:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is This the Gold Buying Opportunity of a Lifetime?
      You do not have to be a Peter Lynch to see what multiple non-coincidental events can predict. My assumption of a bottoming in gold beginning is from...

      a) Lehman huge CDS settlement
      b) the cascading margin calls from those holding the 91 cent side of obligation from the Lehman settlement.
      c) Fed meeting next week - 25 cut priced 100% in and 50 bips 90% in today
      d) Release of the TARP funds accelerating
      e) Oct end of month hedgie redemptions

      I saw all the tourists here in Manhattan - no need to wait till they reverse flow and get wise.

      Next week is time slice buy into gold as the wave is turning
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 22nd 15:48 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is This the Gold Buying Opportunity of a Lifetime?
      You are forgetting that gold WAS a currency and still is as a result of its not deteriorating, is difficult to find, and the value humans place on it.

      Todays melt down across asset classes seems to be another wave of margin calls as the recently settlement of Lehmans CDS at 9 cents means someone(s) is holding the bag on 91 cents in liability. Just as the wave of recent CEO's that have had to sell their stocks at large losses in response to margin calls, hedge funds and market players are now being forced out of all their positions and while I do not know for sure it is the Lehman event it seems too coincidental in timing for me.

      As far as the dollar is concerned the major reason for its rally is the flight to Treasuries. The Fed is meeting in a week and they will most likely cut rates again making this piece of paper weaker against other pieces of paper.

      As far as watching French TV for ads about travel to determine the dollars weakness - that is a bit pedestrian and I expect the euro to weaken along side but as right now with Canada's cut this week and other major currency cuts the Fed is trying not to show panic and do it on a schedule.

      Flight to treasuries, other worldwide cuts and the Fed trying not to show panic.

      That all unwinds soon.

      Margin selling today and for gold a chance to get in on the cheap.
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 22nd 13:24 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is This the Gold Buying Opportunity of a Lifetime?
      The dollar is a piece of paper and its value is measured against other little colored pieces of paper. Emerging markets inflation is running high and the level of all of these colored pieces of paper is flat out too much.

      Dollar trades as a proxy RELATIVE to the other paper which is incorrect when compared to gold. There is a lot more paper out there and pretty much the same amount of gold. Once the hedge fun deleveraging is completed and the TARP becomes mostly distributed ALL the paper will be worse a lot less.

      There is no need to watch for a TV ad or want to even go to France. Its all relative and once that false dollar-gold linkage breaks and people realize the dollar is quoted in other pieces of paper, gold goes vertical.
      View article »
    • Thu Mar 13th 16:42 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold/Dollar Ratio Goes Parabolic
      For the last $300 up in Gold all I have heard ablut is how this is going to collapse, how its going to back off, etc...

      I guess if you write one of the articles, such as the one above every $100 up in gold, you are bound to be right sooner or later.

      I have been buying the pullbacks for months now and am sitting on a massive winner - which will get bigger.

      S&P estimated today we are half way through the write offs. Even if we are 3/4 of the way through the feds rate cuts we have over a point of more cuts coming. And do not forget the banks are all still writing off - maybe more moves at the window, policy changes, etc...

      This move is in response to a little inflation and ANTICIPATED inflation. The paper money fiat market is getting soooooo inflated, just wait till it works its way through to the CPI and PPI. Thats when gold really goes parabolic. Dont forget that China just posted well over 8% inflation, Russia is printing roubles like puppet presidents. The world is awash in paper.

      Nice chart buddy. Now take some time to figure out how to interpret it properly.
      View article »
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