damienhaas

Employment Lags the Stock Market

"By March 2010, we should see employment levels improving and unemployment rates declining".

once the stimulus effect is over and demand not likely to coming back any time soon, companies will start another round of retrenchment. Employment numbers may not improved and continue downwards. Of course you may be right that increasing unemployment might not happen at that time. By then the second stimulus package will be implemented to prolong this agony. Subsequently Inflation (or worst Stagflation) will be the most likely outcome.

And Bernanke Didn't Think Unemployment Would Reach 10%

Bernanke is wrong about the unemployment, I wonder whether he will be wrong about inflation too......

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Cristian

What David is saying is an asset bubble of all class. Stock, commodities, High yield currency and according to Robert Shiller, Real Estate now.

As for consumer, they just don't care as long as asset price is high.

Mark Zandi: 'Help Wanted' Needs Help

Few Observations.

First point
The demand for goods in US are serious impaired by this crisis so the demand will not come back. Providing more credit to them will not help. There is a need to restructure the business model and it take market force to make that work.

Second
Job sharing will not work as it affect productivity. If the demand is less and you do not need 2 people, normally the more productive employee will be kept and left the other to be retrench. Imagine 2 people doing the same job just less hours?

Thirdly
Providing more unemployment benefits now will give more money to people who lost job more time to look for job. But they will unlikely to spurge that money as most of them will be cautious about their situation. So most likely they will save it and that will undermine the stimulus effect expected by the government.

Roubini Sounds the Alarm (Again)

In 2007, A lot of people laugh at Roubini for his "not so popular" predication. So I would not so hasty in judging his call now.

U.S. Housing: No Longer a Drag on the Economy but Far from Standing on Its Own

If it take more than Trillion dollars of government stimulus, then it is still a drag to the economy, It just make use of government money to subsidize the housing markets. When the stimulus effect is over, you will see the true color of the housing market. Even though I think the government will continue to print money to support the housing market.

Q3 Housing Vacancies: U.S. vacancy rate rises to 11.1% for rental housing and falls to 2.6% for homeowner housing (vs. 10.6% and 2.8% in Q2). Vacancies are at their highest since at least 1996.

So where is the housing recovery?

Bill Gross' 'New Normal': Just the Same Old Normal After All

It is called Stagflation. The commodities price is goes up as a Hedge for inflation as nations who has surpluses like China will continue buying. So If you want to call a Bull market in commodities, go ahead. However the housing prices and wages continue to fall, that is in US. We have less spending power + high commodities price. Now is it a case for long term Bullish case?

Rosenberg: Overvalued Markets in for a Strong Correction?

The correction is forthcoming and the only question is how big is the drop. However with interest rates so low and so much liquidity, the probability of a big drop is unlikely.

Roubini Hates Gold: Is He Wrong Again?

Actually I think Gold is a crowded trade at the moment, too many money chasing gold now. For people who think that the world market will correct drastically, Investor will start selling equities/commodities and the need for dollars are still there, especially for non-US market. A lot of Fund still trade in US dollars and repatriation required the use of large amount of dollars. So unless this overbought market keep going up, I guess the US dollars will bounced, at least in the short and medium term.

Richard Bernstein - Once a Bear, Now a Bull

What an analysis! He is bearish when the market oversold and hit a low and bullish when the market are overbought and almost 60 percents from the low. I thought the best is buy when there is panic and sell when there is euphoria, maybe Richard Bernstein has the indicate the time of euphoria has come.

Inflation and the Hierarchy of Needs

"The role of government is to bailout black swans. Again, the Fed’s policy is to remove any obstacles to asset inflation."

The government will bailed out banking sectors when they cause one of the serious financial crisis in the modern era and the Fed then help removal of obstacles i.e pump up the stocks price so that Goldman Sach and JP Morgan can benefit.

Barron's' 'Miller Time' Completely Misses the Math - and the Mark

Bill Miller is good manager during good time and a lousy manager during bad time. I guess it also apply to most of the money manager.

Dow 10,000: Show Me the (Real) Money

Both US dollars and UK Pounds in the long term will become weaker and that impact on their respective bond prices are now irreversible.

If the US and UK Government rise interest, they will cause a meltdown in the Bond market and maybe sink the economy again.

If they keep interest low, the dollar and UK pound will continue to fall and standard of living will fall. That will in turn reduce the consumer spending power for both nation. In this case, China will also in big trouble(who shall they export to with EU themselves have their consumer problem?).

So damn if you do, damn if you don't do

Look like this time we really need a serious Contingency planning!

Short Bets Decrease Worldwide

If the short are not in, If the market correction arrived, who is going to the support the market?