damienhaas

Preview of the U.S.'s Future: Debt Burdened Nation?

There is one big difference, Japan have Huge surplus when their Real Estate Bubble burst and they can last 20 years. US have massive deficits. The only way is to print money out of the problem and stealth inflation will be come first before the eventual implosion. That will not take 20 years.

Stock Market Optimists Revisited: This Is Not Your Father's Stock Market

" you would have made money even if you were unfortunate enough to have purchased the DJIA at any of its peaks since 1900 (see accompanying chart). It was the equivalent of throwing darts at a dartboard with nothing but a “bull’s eye” on it. "

I think you forget about nominal gain is not inflation adjust gain.

There's No Bubble in China

acttang

You are right in term of majority of the property are not affordable to common people and it is the speculator that are pushing the property price to humongous. So If the property price are now at a level that common people cannot afford and still keep on rising, It is definitely a bubble.


On Nov 06 10:54 PM acttang wrote:

> >

Husebye: A Contrarian's View of the Markets

unless there is a huge shock, S&P is unlikely to go below 500, It will definitely decline significantly. US dollars will rise eventually when the risky trades unwind, but to go 1000 on the US dollars index is to ignore the problem that US money printing is causing.

Japan's Not Out of the Woods Yet

I think this is not new to Japan, There have this for almost 20 years now. US may be looking at the same kind of situation......

Time to Go to Cash... Or Is It?

"From shock and awe, people move into realization, acceptance and new beginnings."

How do you have new beginning when the consumer is still saddle with debts and bank are holding assets that losing value and protect only by the mark to market rule.

if you have say that people realized the situation and accepted it as a new beginning, stock price should not be at this level.

Why Charles Hugh Smith Doesn't Believe the Recession Is Over

"only" 190,000 jobs were lost in October, but then employment fell by 589,000.

Yes, How does this figures work out?

Baltic Dry Index Roars Back with 102.5% Gain in 39 Days

Mark

Does Baltic Dry Index take into consideration the volume of transaction, or just the price level only?

Whistling Past the Deficit - NYT

It is inevitable that the country has to raise to tax to cover the huge deficits accumulated by majority of US State governments

If This Is a Recovery...

Not sure how effective big business will help small business, I still remember when Wal-Mart invaded the town and a lot of Mom and Pa businesses disappear....


On Nov 15 08:47 PM Formyx wrote:

> @damienhaas
>
> If that were the case, we would not have ghost towns. That is, if
> you believe small businesses have staying power on their own. A tour
> of the great old mill towns of the north-east, the old steel towns
> of Pennsylvania or the car assembly towns in Michigan disproves that.
>
>
> Great cities are usually built around national or global players.
> It is not a question of what sector provides more employment. Small
> businesses provide more. But a necessary condition for them to exist
> is that big business exists nearby.

The World's Top 10 Cities in 2025

15 years is a very long time in a future where boom and bust cycle are getting shorter and shorter. The prosperity of a city can change in just matter of a few years, not > 10 years.

If This Is a Recovery...

I think the main issue John is talking about is employment. Big companies normally are more efficient and turn to outsource workforce oversea and does not create jobs effectively. However small business normally operate locally and tend to provide more employment.


On Nov 15 03:32 PM Formyx wrote:

> @John Mauldin

Understanding the Dollar Debate

US consumed more than they export. Majority of GDP numbers are from consumption, having a weak dollars mean goods become more expensive and people will spend less because of lower real income.

US export goods that are fundamentally technological advance and always have a premium to it. People buy the products because of quality so lower price mean lesser revenue as a lot of external country still buy US goods.

So Weak dollars may not really help the economy and as Jeff has say, the world is printing money with their stimulus and so dollars may not get weaker now. What we get is a world wide phenomena call INFLATION.

On Nov 13 10:29 AM Machiavelli999 wrote:

> This might be one of the most sane articles I've read here at SA
> on the dollar. The fact of the matter is that right now we need a
> weaker dollar. It will boost our exports and lower the real value
> of our private debts. Of course, people don't want to hear it here
> because facts and results don't give a sh*t what your political views
> are nor how many times you have read Atlas Shrugged.
>
> The funny thing is that it was the icon of free market capitalism,
> Milton Friedman, who wrote volumes on the need for monetary stimulus
> from the government in recessions. Partly because of his wisdom we
> went 50 years without a big recession that required huge monetary
> stimulus. Now we do and people don't want to remember or hear his
> advice.
>
> Aggregate demand matters. You can argue what is the best way to stimulate
> it (as Keynes and Friedman did) but people here want to deny that
> its even important. As if demand will just come back magically if
> you reduce the marginal tax rate, which is already historically low,
> a few more percentage points lower.

Why the Anemic Market Action?

Volume Weighted Average Price


On Nov 12 08:24 AM je wrote:

> What is a VWAP?

Can't the Fed Pretend to Care About the Dollar?

I wonder why Fitch did not warn that US AAA rating are in danger of downgrading, just UK?