damienhaas's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/163605/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/178325-ppi-up-1-8-should-the-fed-be-worried-about-inflation?source=feed#comment-807436 807436 Tue, 15 Dec 2009 19:27:20 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/178202-thoughts-on-fed-s-exit-strategy-stephen-roach-vs-mish?source=feed#comment-806213 806213 Tue, 15 Dec 2009 08:17:58 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/178194-global-trade-remains-strong-even-after-stimulus-ends?source=feed#comment-806099 806099
So bottom line is a lot of economies like Japan, BRIC and Emerging nation still need to export to US. It is the stimulus money that temporary let the US consumers to tie over this period. So once the stimulus end, which will put our consumption, 70 percent of GDP under pressure and where is the growth going to come from?

As for Japan, they just pumped another stimulus. If the export of auto is so good and an indication of the economy recovery, they would be no need for another stimulus.]]> Tue, 15 Dec 2009 05:30:19 -0500
So bottom line is a lot of economies like Japan, BRIC and Emerging nation still need to export to US. It is the stimulus money that temporary let the US consumers to tie over this period. So once the stimulus end, which will put our consumption, 70 percent of GDP under pressure and where is the growth going to come from?

As for Japan, they just pumped another stimulus. If the export of auto is so good and an indication of the economy recovery, they would be no need for another stimulus.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/178188-bona-fide-recovery-seems-in-order?source=feed#comment-806087 806087
Tell that to massive number of unemployed, underemployed and the people who have to work in the service sector instead of the professional sectors.

Hope you can tell us what will happen when the government take away the stimulus, raise interest rates to prevent inflation and raised tax to balance the budget in the near future.]]> Tue, 15 Dec 2009 05:06:05 -0500
Tell that to massive number of unemployed, underemployed and the people who have to work in the service sector instead of the professional sectors.

Hope you can tell us what will happen when the government take away the stimulus, raise interest rates to prevent inflation and raised tax to balance the budget in the near future.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/178154-why-a-stronger-dollar-is-not-a-problem?source=feed#comment-806081 806081
At this moment the reason of strong US dollars is because a lot of traders cover their short dollars position in anticipation of the equities fall that is coming. Not sure that is a good thing.

You also say "Rising interest rates need not pose any great risk to the economy in my view;". Raising interest rates at this environment will increase the mortgage rates and will really killed off any hope of housing recovery. ]]> Tue, 15 Dec 2009 04:59:14 -0500
At this moment the reason of strong US dollars is because a lot of traders cover their short dollars position in anticipation of the equities fall that is coming. Not sure that is a good thing.

You also say "Rising interest rates need not pose any great risk to the economy in my view;". Raising interest rates at this environment will increase the mortgage rates and will really killed off any hope of housing recovery. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/178031-rbc-s-mixed-outlook-for-2010-strong-h1-risky-h2?source=feed#comment-804880 804880 Mon, 14 Dec 2009 09:30:40 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/177977-will-2009-s-losers-become-2010-s-winners?source=feed#comment-804844 804844 Mon, 14 Dec 2009 09:15:16 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/178027-the-bubble-decade-is-far-from-over?source=feed#comment-804835 804835 Mon, 14 Dec 2009 09:11:42 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/177706-global-markets-2010-predictions-part-i-judgment-day-unlikely-to-be-deferred?source=feed#comment-801100 801100
This statements contradict what you say in the whole articles....]]> Fri, 11 Dec 2009 06:39:33 -0500
This statements contradict what you say in the whole articles....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177693-economic-snippets-i-couldn-t-say-it-any-better?source=feed#comment-801086 801086
No more fancy houses, No more expensive restaurants and no more high fuel consumption cars. You think how many industries will be affected?]]> Fri, 11 Dec 2009 06:37:39 -0500
No more fancy houses, No more expensive restaurants and no more high fuel consumption cars. You think how many industries will be affected?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177694-u-s-debt-default-distant-but-real-barnaby-joyce?source=feed#comment-801076 801076 Fri, 11 Dec 2009 06:16:19 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/177698-the-real-unemployment-rate-has-been-drifting-downward?source=feed#comment-801048 801048 Fri, 11 Dec 2009 05:31:28 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/177685-yield-curve-steepest-since-1980-hard-times-ahead-in-2010?source=feed#comment-801036 801036
There will be more governments stimulus in there are signs of economic contraction again as now the big bank, enterprise and well know business leaders will scream hell even a normal slowdown. The stimulus may still support the equities market will those easy money. The party may last longer than everyone think.

Oil price maybe lower but I got a niggling feeling that oil may be used a hedge(as an alternative to Gold) in a world that is flush with so many paper money.]]> Fri, 11 Dec 2009 05:03:24 -0500
There will be more governments stimulus in there are signs of economic contraction again as now the big bank, enterprise and well know business leaders will scream hell even a normal slowdown. The stimulus may still support the equities market will those easy money. The party may last longer than everyone think.

Oil price maybe lower but I got a niggling feeling that oil may be used a hedge(as an alternative to Gold) in a world that is flush with so many paper money.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177683-is-debt-inherently-bad?source=feed#comment-801030 801030
A strong company with strong fundamental can leverage on debts with their strong balance sheet and hence lower interest rates -> Good debts

A weaker company has no such luxury and may have to pay junk bond rate. Repayment of debts will strain the company even more. These are the companies that need more debts but they have to pay higher interest. The mega banks are good examples if not for the "free money" from the government.

Debt is good for government who has strong fundamental as they will able to raise money with low interest rates. However with Governments like the one in Greece, Spain, UK and even US, they will have to pay higher interest on their debts in the future as their fundamental become weaker and weaker. That is not good debts if they have to raise money in the future.

As for consumers, borrowing from the future to spend on instant gratification is not good thing from a common sense financial perspective.]]> Fri, 11 Dec 2009 04:42:56 -0500
A strong company with strong fundamental can leverage on debts with their strong balance sheet and hence lower interest rates -> Good debts

A weaker company has no such luxury and may have to pay junk bond rate. Repayment of debts will strain the company even more. These are the companies that need more debts but they have to pay higher interest. The mega banks are good examples if not for the "free money" from the government.

Debt is good for government who has strong fundamental as they will able to raise money with low interest rates. However with Governments like the one in Greece, Spain, UK and even US, they will have to pay higher interest on their debts in the future as their fundamental become weaker and weaker. That is not good debts if they have to raise money in the future.

As for consumers, borrowing from the future to spend on instant gratification is not good thing from a common sense financial perspective.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177478-obubblomics-prepare-for-markets-to-get-worse?source=feed#comment-799429 799429
Actually that is what happen to Japan. The people there have become frugal but the government keep on spending. Even now the Japanese government just come out with a new stimulus, almost 20 years after the first.]]> Thu, 10 Dec 2009 07:40:17 -0500
Actually that is what happen to Japan. The people there have become frugal but the government keep on spending. Even now the Japanese government just come out with a new stimulus, almost 20 years after the first.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38000?source=feed#comment-799046 799046 Wed, 09 Dec 2009 20:24:24 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/177440-the-flat-line-market-lessons-from-japan?source=feed#comment-798803 798803
The strong GDP growth is based on weaker Yen and their superior product at that time. Now as a lot of countries (think BRIC) catch up with advance product development techniques and even Cheaper price(e.g China), Japanese is starting to lost that edge.

US now trying to increase their export with weaker US dollars. However now they faced more competition now and historically US products are expensive. So there are a lot of difference in the comparison but I think the outcome is still the same, people are saving more (deflationary) but commodities prices increase due to weaker dollar (inflationary).]]> Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:03:08 -0500
The strong GDP growth is based on weaker Yen and their superior product at that time. Now as a lot of countries (think BRIC) catch up with advance product development techniques and even Cheaper price(e.g China), Japanese is starting to lost that edge.

US now trying to increase their export with weaker US dollars. However now they faced more competition now and historically US products are expensive. So there are a lot of difference in the comparison but I think the outcome is still the same, people are saving more (deflationary) but commodities prices increase due to weaker dollar (inflationary).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177445-up-12-53-in-2010?source=feed#comment-798692 798692
Earning growth however may not justify that kind of S&P target without any government support. ]]> Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:51:54 -0500
Earning growth however may not justify that kind of S&P target without any government support. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177327-sovereign-risks-really?source=feed#comment-797781 797781 Wed, 09 Dec 2009 09:02:44 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/177321-u-s-government-job-stimulus-adding-more-debt-how-are-we-different-from-japan?source=feed#comment-797703 797703 Wed, 09 Dec 2009 08:30:48 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/177268-richard-russell-downturn-will-be-vicious?source=feed#comment-797572 797572
It's still earlier to say. This economy is like a ship traveling in a sea that has so many hidden icebergs that anything can happen. Especially when nobody is expecting it.]]> Wed, 09 Dec 2009 06:28:22 -0500
It's still earlier to say. This economy is like a ship traveling in a sea that has so many hidden icebergs that anything can happen. Especially when nobody is expecting it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177179-saut-still-grudgingly-believes-markets-will-end-year-higher?source=feed#comment-797125 797125 Tue, 08 Dec 2009 19:44:51 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/177164-markets-are-still-pessimistic?source=feed#comment-796973 796973
Supporting your article based on the credit spread are like standing on think ice.]]> Tue, 08 Dec 2009 18:38:01 -0500
Supporting your article based on the credit spread are like standing on think ice.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177078-10-reasons-the-equity-rally-is-over?source=feed#comment-796029 796029 Tue, 08 Dec 2009 09:19:24 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/177015-is-the-market-overvalued?source=feed#comment-795721 795721
Furthermore you are assuming that Zero interest rates and low bond yield are here to stay, how long can that last before interest rates start to raise?]]> Tue, 08 Dec 2009 06:43:04 -0500
Furthermore you are assuming that Zero interest rates and low bond yield are here to stay, how long can that last before interest rates start to raise?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177053-expecting-unexciting-long-term-returns-for-years-to-come?source=feed#comment-795702 795702
Those who invest treasury may have a low return and at least the return is better than equities for that 10 years.

I am not saying treasuries are much better. It is just whether you are in the deflation or inflation camp.


On Dec 08 06:05 AM chap08 wrote:

> I track this metric and other similar (e.g. q). They have value,
> but be aware:
>
> 1. Although it is a good predictor of long term returns, it has ZERO
> value in predicting 1 year returns. Over a short time period, it
> is statistically insignificant.
>
> 2. The P/E (and CAPE) will usually be higher at times of low rates
> and inflation. One reason is that stocks and bonds are alternative
> investments. Always compare with Treasuries. Right now, the CAPE
> says that you can reasonably expect a 10 year annualized real return
> of 3% from stocks. If you buy a 10 year Treasury, to equal that return,
> you would have to have zero inflation over that 10 years. Where is
> there more risk?]]> Tue, 08 Dec 2009 06:20:18 -0500
Those who invest treasury may have a low return and at least the return is better than equities for that 10 years.

I am not saying treasuries are much better. It is just whether you are in the deflation or inflation camp.


On Dec 08 06:05 AM chap08 wrote:

> I track this metric and other similar (e.g. q). They have value,
> but be aware:
>
> 1. Although it is a good predictor of long term returns, it has ZERO
> value in predicting 1 year returns. Over a short time period, it
> is statistically insignificant.
>
> 2. The P/E (and CAPE) will usually be higher at times of low rates
> and inflation. One reason is that stocks and bonds are alternative
> investments. Always compare with Treasuries. Right now, the CAPE
> says that you can reasonably expect a 10 year annualized real return
> of 3% from stocks. If you buy a 10 year Treasury, to equal that return,
> you would have to have zero inflation over that 10 years. Where is
> there more risk?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177009-economic-indicators-suggest-investing-caution?source=feed#comment-795697 795697
They say that in Oct 2007 high too. Look what happen after that....]]> Tue, 08 Dec 2009 06:11:26 -0500
They say that in Oct 2007 high too. Look what happen after that....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176764-unemployment-falls-to-10-but-obscures-negative-trends?source=feed#comment-793247 793247

On Dec 06 04:33 PM Tomcat101 wrote:

> Some companies are beginning to hire again. It's for real. My company
> is hiring again. Full-time, permanent positions- not just seasonal
> workers at dept. stores.]]> Sun, 06 Dec 2009 19:41:01 -0500

On Dec 06 04:33 PM Tomcat101 wrote:

> Some companies are beginning to hire again. It's for real. My company
> is hiring again. Full-time, permanent positions- not just seasonal
> workers at dept. stores.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/37723?source=feed#comment-791127 791127

On Dec 04 07:48 PM battman wrote:

> At what point do we wish the world finally ends? Can we move on
> from the "everyone else is stupider than me" mentality and just work
> on fixing the problem.
> Yes banks are failing, it's happened before and it will happen again.
>
> Let's focus on the fix please.]]> Fri, 04 Dec 2009 20:22:19 -0500

On Dec 04 07:48 PM battman wrote:

> At what point do we wish the world finally ends? Can we move on
> from the "everyone else is stupider than me" mentality and just work
> on fixing the problem.
> Yes banks are failing, it's happened before and it will happen again.
>
> Let's focus on the fix please.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176515-our-current-economic-illusions?source=feed#comment-789740 789740
However What the stimulus do is created more government job, aka big government. It created a lot of duplicate jobs in the government and make it more ineffective. We need more private sector job, not government jobs. The money will be much better to put in infrastructure project that hired private sector jobs.

As for productivity, it may be even higher next year as more jobs may be cut after the stimulus effect is over.]]> Fri, 04 Dec 2009 06:00:23 -0500
However What the stimulus do is created more government job, aka big government. It created a lot of duplicate jobs in the government and make it more ineffective. We need more private sector job, not government jobs. The money will be much better to put in infrastructure project that hired private sector jobs.

As for productivity, it may be even higher next year as more jobs may be cut after the stimulus effect is over.]]>