damienhaas

And Bernanke Didn't Think Unemployment Would Reach 10%

Bernanke is wrong about the unemployment, I wonder whether he will be wrong about inflation too......

Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher

If the money hold by the bank is not used for lending, the only way to put into the stock market. So the stock market might go higher and the economy goes the other way for a long time until someone pulled back the liquidity.

The Next Bull Market Is 4-8 Months Away

The stock has rally more than 30 percent since the march low, where is the fear? We should sell now as everyone is greedy!

Is Dubai's Default a Black Swan Event?

The author is trying to be smart. Next up Greece may be defaulting. Italy close to it. So are all these black Swan events? It look like a lot white swans.

Roubini Hates Gold: Is He Wrong Again?

Actually I think Gold is a crowded trade at the moment, too many money chasing gold now. For people who think that the world market will correct drastically, Investor will start selling equities/commodities and the need for dollars are still there, especially for non-US market. A lot of Fund still trade in US dollars and repatriation required the use of large amount of dollars. So unless this overbought market keep going up, I guess the US dollars will bounced, at least in the short and medium term.

Dow 10,000: Show Me the (Real) Money

Both US dollars and UK Pounds in the long term will become weaker and that impact on their respective bond prices are now irreversible.

If the US and UK Government rise interest, they will cause a meltdown in the Bond market and maybe sink the economy again.

If they keep interest low, the dollar and UK pound will continue to fall and standard of living will fall. That will in turn reduce the consumer spending power for both nation. In this case, China will also in big trouble(who shall they export to with EU themselves have their consumer problem?).

So damn if you do, damn if you don't do

Look like this time we really need a serious Contingency planning!

How Will the Recession End?

"We will emerge out the current crisis in better shape".

Without letting inefficient industry(aka Bank and auto) failed and keep them alive like zombies. It will prevent more innovative and entrepreneurial individual and companies that will help us come out this crisis. I think US will more like Japan and Investment returns will be mediocre at best for the next decade.

U.S. Government Job Stimulus Adding More Debt; How Are We Different from Japan?

Japan started with Surplus and end with massive deficits and US started with massive deficits with the printing press working overtime. The difference is that Japan can last 20 years but US may not. The coming debt crisis will be the same for both and possibly happen at the same time.

Economic Indicators Suggest Investing Caution

"The equities market is a forward indicator of expected economic performance. ".

They say that in Oct 2007 high too. Look what happen after that....

Barron's' 'Miller Time' Completely Misses the Math - and the Mark

Bill Miller is good manager during good time and a lousy manager during bad time. I guess it also apply to most of the money manager.

The highly-popular comparison of the current hope that banks can earn their way out of trouble to Japan - whose Lost Decade seems to prove the fallacy of that assumption - fails to capture what went wrong in Japan, and why the U.S. is so different, James Surowiecki says.

The banking system has not even deleverage. The debt on the balance sheet of bank is higher than it is in pre-crisis level. The Japanese consumer has saving and we have massive debt. So which is worst?

Nouriel Roubini: Will the global imbalances return along with the economy?

Cetin, He is talking more on the Economy, If he is right about the economy, he is still going to more relevant than you. What happen in the stock market can be manipulated. Maybe you can give some logical view on the article before you give your "opinion".....


On May 01 05:15 PM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

> With every passing week the market surges Roubini becomes a little
> less relevant.

We're in Danger of Being Blinded by Market Bottom Predictions

Good point. I think the changes of the people's mindset on their lifestyle are the real factor affecting the future of this economy.

Our Growing Debt and Deficits: 3 Overlooked Points

For ordinary people who have no jobs and there is a lot of them out there, we are in a depression.

The Depression may be bad but it will make a lot of poorly run organization(like the big banks) fail and in this time there is always opportunities for other people to create new strategic businesses and other type of industries that can compete in the world market and replace the defunct type of businesses we have having (Car, Real Estate and other service base economies). What we are doing is just prolong what is not working. Yes economy will grow slightly better(compare to the worst of course) with this kind of irresponsible government spending. But will it last?

The government can use the stimulus money and takeover the bank role to lend to small business and NOT just give away money to keep the unsustainable consumption we are used to. That will be more effective in creating new jobs and reduce the impact of the depression or great recession we are facing.

10 Reasons the Equity Rally Is Over

Another writer that use profit as a benchmark but ignored the falling revenue. Maybe we can make all the S&P 500 companies smaller so that we have higher profits.