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ThetaDecay

ThetaDecay
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  • Dividend Champions Ranking: Part 1, The Heavyweights [View article]
    Really strong article. Thanks for taking the time to write this up.
    Apr 16 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Futures slip, gold gains after Ukraine vote [View news story]
    Philip,

    I cannot find any source indicating the Crimean parliament declared independence before this invasion. The first mention I could find of parliament declaring independence occurred on March 6th, a full week after armed troops had surrounded airports, military bases, and government buildings in Crimea.

    Furthermore, I don't know how you can consider the parliament of Crimea legitimate. The vote to hold a referendum was held in a closed-door session, in which cell phones were prohibited, overseen by a group of 50 armed soldiers. Additionally, "some Crimean legislators who were registered as present have said they did not come near the building" (http://ti.me/PHqeqr). As the Time article aptly notes: "in any case, those who did arrive could hardly have voted their conscience while pro-Russian gunmen stood in the wings with rocket launchers."

    Clearly, anything coming from the Crimean parliament has been provided under extreme duress. It seems like a, uh, mischaracterization to claim that these are the actions of a freely-elected government.
    Mar 17 01:31 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Futures slip, gold gains after Ukraine vote [View news story]
    Philip,

    I agree, the analogy is not perfect. Still, I feel like your points of contention are little more than the splitting of hairs.

    Yes, Austria had never been a part of the country of Germany. But Austria was part of the German Confederation until 1866, and, before that, a part of the Holy Roman Empire. The cultural ties were there. In fact, following WWI there was a movement within Austria that pushed for a unified German-Austrian state.

    Yes, unlike this situation, the Austrian referendum was called to prevent annexation. They say the devil's in the details, but please tell me how the details make these situations wholly unalike: 1) to invade a country and "oversee" the voting in response to the government calling a referendum, vs. 2) to invade a country, have armed men take the parliament, hold a closed-door session where parliament members are forced to surrender all cell phones to these armed men, have that parliament arrive at the conclusion they want a referendum, and then "oversee" the voting.

    I really don't understand how you can determine with such confidence that this is what the Crimean people want. I would love for you to explain that to me. I can site the 99%+ pro-German results of the Austrian referendum, yet we both agree that the majority of Austrians did not favor annexation.

    Your point about there being losses all around is well taken. But being a student of history, I think you would agree that sometimes it is important for a collation of countries to take a stand against a global aggressor. Sure, we can hope that this is that last we ever hear out of Putin's Russia and do nothing more that condemn the man's actions. But, at the risk of overusing the Hitler analogy, you must appreciate how a similar line of thinking lead to the failed policy of appeasement, propagated by a war-shy West in the late 1930s.
    Mar 16 11:35 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Futures slip, gold gains after Ukraine vote [View news story]
    I wonder: if the internet had existed 80 years ago, would some people get on Seeking Alpha and claim that the Anschluss was "not that big of a deal" and opine that Hitler had a claim to "a region that has historically been part of [Germany] and whose population overwhelmingly identify as [German]."

    As to your claim that the US and Russia with suffer equally: Russia is the US's 20th largest trading partner, while the US is Russia's 5th biggest trading partner (source: http://bit.ly/PH44Vw). Additionally, Russia will lose the EU, a region responsible for half of their total exports.

    China may be playing both sides. But if push comes to shove and China is forced to pick a side, they will undoubtedly side with the US. China owns $1.317 trillion of US government debt - their interests are considerably intertwined with the interests of the US (source: http://fxn.ws/PH4aw4)
    Mar 16 10:06 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett takes bond holdings to lowest in over a decade [View news story]
    The reason deals have been sparse the last couple years is because the money supply is so high. This lowers the cost of capital and allows borrowers to pick from a wide array of options. The pricing power is in the hands of the borrower, not the lender. This is why Buffet says, "investment opportunities currently available will likely generate considerably lower yields."
    Mar 6 04:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overstock's Bitcoin transactions top $1M [View news story]
    Oh, I completely agree.

    But the same could be said of the US dollar, or any currency that's been in circulation. Some of that money, at some point in time, was procured by someone through illegal means. Not quite the same thing, but studies estimate that anywhere from 80%-94% of all U.S. paper currency has trace elements of cocaine.

    Refusing to accept Bitcoin will not help the victims recover their funds. In fact, doing so would only serve to hurt the 93% of people who have invested in Bitcoin through legitimate means. I guess misery loves company, but that doesn't really seem like a desirable outcome. At least that's how I feel.
    Mar 4 06:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overstock's Bitcoin transactions top $1M [View news story]
    Individual coins are unidentifiable, so companies have no fear that investigators will come knocking.
    Mar 4 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Moelis & Company files for IPO [View news story]
    With the M&A slowdown on Wall Street, I'm not sure if now is the best time to IPO an investment bank. But then again, maybe this is the new normal.
    Mar 4 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kerry flying to Kiev to show support for Ukraine [View news story]
    Icrupp -

    They will start brushing up on their Rosetta Stone if they know what's good for them. Putin will tolerate no deviation from the Party message: the Crimean people are ethnically Russian and they welcome their liberators with open arms.
    Mar 3 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expedia +12.3% AH on Q4 beat, strong bookings; Priceline +1.5% [View news story]
    Alternatively, it could be a sign of an industry-wide increase in online hotel and airline bookings.
    It appears that the market is crediting at least some of EXPE's earnings beat to macro factors, factors that are bullish for the whole industry.
    Feb 6 06:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks blows off some steam [View news story]
    A high price-to-book is immaterial when valuing a growth stock. You're better off looking at trends in quarterly revenue growth (Y/Y), operating profit margin, or managerial efficiency (working capital turnover, cash conversion cycle, etc.)

    I hope you wouldn't try to use price-to-book to perform analysis on a stock like AMZN or CMG. Why would you use it for SBUX?
    Dec 10 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems turns negative after Tilson makes short case [View news story]
    "I believe that it is virtually certain that Google's stock will be highly disappointing to investors foolish enough to participate in its overhyped offering -- you can hold me to that." - Whitney Tilson on Google around the time of its IPO

    Tilson gives value investors a bad name. If you don't understand an industry, don't opine. If you try to use the same criteria to value Google as you do McDonald's, every growth stock in the tech sector is going to appear overvalued. Most are, but some aren't; Tilson has no way of distinguishing between the two.
    Dec 3 01:19 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM falls as Druckenmiller makes short case [View news story]
    Uh, no. Druckenmiller clearly does understand tech, as he made money during the tech bubble and through the tech crash. What on earth makes you think that you are smarter than this legendary investor?

    I wonder, would you call Buffet (who endorses IBM) an old guy who doesn't have any technology experience? He's 23 years older than Druckenmiller.
    Nov 23 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM falls as Druckenmiller makes short case [View news story]
    He ran the fund for 18 years, and from 1981 to 2007 he achieved annualized returns of over 30%. His last two years came in at 19% and 10%. Before that, he was also involved in one of the greatest shorts of all time, breaking the Bank of England with Soros.

    To imply that this guy doesn't have credentials is laughable.
    Nov 22 04:24 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM "sold" well in October without hiking promotions [View news story]
    I enjoy reading zerohedge from time to time, but if you make investment decisions off the information on that site... well you know what they say about a fool and his money.
    Nov 1 04:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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