submarino's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/163671/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/87334-how-vietnam-is-coping-with-hyper-inflation?source=feed#comment-218026 218026
So is Vietnam out of the woods? Unfortunately, maybe not. The key for Vietnam now, as for most Asian markets is how much growth is going to slow, as a result of the government’s anti-inflationary measures and because of weakening global conditions. The next worry is earnings growth, with some companies reporting surprising profit drops – and even losses – in H1. While the earnings outlook is unclear, the market remains risky.
The key to the direction of the market will be domestic investor sentiment. Foreigners have been steady buyers of the market this year, buying between USD28m and USD122m every month. Even when the market was in freefall, the country funds that raised money last but had not had the opportunity to invest it, continued to put money into Vietnam.
So, while the long-term Vietnamese story may well remain exciting, at the moment investment in this market remains only for the brave. In the current jittery global environment, I do not expect much in the way of new foreign money to find its way into a market as risky as Vietnam.
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So is Vietnam out of the woods? Unfortunately, maybe not. The key for Vietnam now, as for most Asian markets is how much growth is going to slow, as a result of the government’s anti-inflationary measures and because of weakening global conditions. The next worry is earnings growth, with some companies reporting surprising profit drops – and even losses – in H1. While the earnings outlook is unclear, the market remains risky.
The key to the direction of the market will be domestic investor sentiment. Foreigners have been steady buyers of the market this year, buying between USD28m and USD122m every month. Even when the market was in freefall, the country funds that raised money last but had not had the opportunity to invest it, continued to put money into Vietnam.
So, while the long-term Vietnamese story may well remain exciting, at the moment investment in this market remains only for the brave. In the current jittery global environment, I do not expect much in the way of new foreign money to find its way into a market as risky as Vietnam.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87334-how-vietnam-is-coping-with-hyper-inflation?source=feed#comment-217139 217139 www.bloomberg.com/apps...]]> Tue, 29 Jul 2008 06:13:32 -0400 www.bloomberg.com/apps...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87334-how-vietnam-is-coping-with-hyper-inflation?source=feed#comment-217115 217115
Right from the beginning of the last week, the market received unfavorable news about the Ministry of Finance’s sudden decision to adjust petrol price up by over 30%. This gave rise to concerns about CPI growth rate for the rest of the year. Consequently, VN-Index
lost points throughout the week, with not even one successful correction session. Liquidity of the market drastically plunged compared to the week before. However, in general, liquidity remained rather good compared to the previous down correction. Average daily trading volumes on HoSE was over 9.7 million units. Supply – demand gap represented by excessive buy over sell order volume was very high right from the beginning of the week. Tuesday witnessed the record large supply-demand gap of –101 million units on HoSE. However, on the last two days of the week, the gap considerably narrowed, reaching only –31 million.

According to the latest statement released by the General
Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO), CPI in July was 19.57% (not
factoring in high fuel prices), an increase of 1.13% from June—the
lowest increase since the beginning of 2008. It is also worth mentioning that CPI is not only influenced by gasoline price but also by other commodities such as steel, paper pulp, whose prices also increased in July. As Vietnam has to import up to 80% of inputs for production, the influence of world commodities’ prices on Vietnam’s CPI is significant. ]]> Tue, 29 Jul 2008 03:36:34 -0400
Right from the beginning of the last week, the market received unfavorable news about the Ministry of Finance’s sudden decision to adjust petrol price up by over 30%. This gave rise to concerns about CPI growth rate for the rest of the year. Consequently, VN-Index
lost points throughout the week, with not even one successful correction session. Liquidity of the market drastically plunged compared to the week before. However, in general, liquidity remained rather good compared to the previous down correction. Average daily trading volumes on HoSE was over 9.7 million units. Supply – demand gap represented by excessive buy over sell order volume was very high right from the beginning of the week. Tuesday witnessed the record large supply-demand gap of –101 million units on HoSE. However, on the last two days of the week, the gap considerably narrowed, reaching only –31 million.

According to the latest statement released by the General
Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO), CPI in July was 19.57% (not
factoring in high fuel prices), an increase of 1.13% from June—the
lowest increase since the beginning of 2008. It is also worth mentioning that CPI is not only influenced by gasoline price but also by other commodities such as steel, paper pulp, whose prices also increased in July. As Vietnam has to import up to 80% of inputs for production, the influence of world commodities’ prices on Vietnam’s CPI is significant. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87334-how-vietnam-is-coping-with-hyper-inflation?source=feed#comment-216378 216378
The last trading week ended at an 11% percent loss. Today’s market response did however leave investors with some hope for this week. Why? Last Tuesday one stock managed to increase, Wednesday six, Thursday claimed twelve and finally Friday we saw 27 issues close at a gain. Today more than 70 issues managed to increase. This advance in market breadth is the kind of pattern we have seen that launched the recent rallies. Market offers have begun to plateau as no new major sell orders are placed, while buyers seem to be waiting for this week to identify whether or not the market will define a support level.
My advice would to be tread carefully, but pay attention to the rising small cap issues, as these could soon entice or continue enticing speculators thus giving the market the boost it needs to drive the index higher.]]> Mon, 28 Jul 2008 09:43:02 -0400
The last trading week ended at an 11% percent loss. Today’s market response did however leave investors with some hope for this week. Why? Last Tuesday one stock managed to increase, Wednesday six, Thursday claimed twelve and finally Friday we saw 27 issues close at a gain. Today more than 70 issues managed to increase. This advance in market breadth is the kind of pattern we have seen that launched the recent rallies. Market offers have begun to plateau as no new major sell orders are placed, while buyers seem to be waiting for this week to identify whether or not the market will define a support level.
My advice would to be tread carefully, but pay attention to the rising small cap issues, as these could soon entice or continue enticing speculators thus giving the market the boost it needs to drive the index higher.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68518-why-it-s-not-too-late-to-short-china?source=feed#comment-126321 126321 remain expensive at 32x historical P/E and 5.9x P/BV.
Consensus’ 25% 2008-09 EPS growth expectation is
unrealistic amid global stagflation risks.
What is worse, A shares still trade at roughly a 70% premium to
H shares, which implies further downside for large-cap
financial and property stocks in both markets.
Considering domestic inflationary pressure and the rate
environment, until A shares come down to trade at
around 20x P/E, the market might not find too much
support.]]> Fri, 14 Mar 2008 03:59:05 -0400 remain expensive at 32x historical P/E and 5.9x P/BV.
Consensus’ 25% 2008-09 EPS growth expectation is
unrealistic amid global stagflation risks.
What is worse, A shares still trade at roughly a 70% premium to
H shares, which implies further downside for large-cap
financial and property stocks in both markets.
Considering domestic inflationary pressure and the rate
environment, until A shares come down to trade at
around 20x P/E, the market might not find too much
support.]]>