Nikola

Is the Market Reversal Already Happening?

All this has been true since March. The only thing that happened in March is the Fed said it would print money (buy Treasuries). This has now ended.

In other words, fundamentals have been out the window for a while now. Calling a top based on fundamentals makes no sense. Something else is going on, and I think the primary mover is (fall of) the dollar. But how's that going to change in the near term? We got record auctions coming, and the Fed is supposedly out of the game. Indeed, the dollar has remained pretty stable over the past few weeks, yet the stocks still rallied, as has gold.

I think the end is near, but to be honest that's what I thought in May, June, August, and September.

I have no idea where the market is going, but I do know that it's got nothing to do with valuations.

If This Is a Recovery...

"I can't believe it's not Recovery!"

Premature Top Calls Continue After GDP Report

Last time I read this guy he said Sarah Palin is a Wall St candidate because she sold off Alaska state jet on eBay.

How Much Downside Could Still Exist?

I liked the first two paragraphs. The rest is incoherent and non sequitur.

The paragraph about emerging markets is wide sweeping and isn't supported by a single number.

I suppose the argument is that the world is a messy place today and so.... S&P will go down. But world's been a messy place for the last.... oh... twenty thousand years. Was the world more stable back during the Cold War? Around the two World Wars? In 1800s Europe? When?

Cycles, Recessions, and Looking Forward

It's interesting all these comments came after yesterday's -3% session. Just a few days ago, as the market was flying people were talking about a recovery.

We can go and look at this number or that, and argue to death of its importance compared to other numbers. But for me, the bottom line for this mess is confidence. And I think that's also apparent in comments here, among investors.

Yes, I do believe that if people believe we'll get out of this in 2009, we will. If people do not believe it, we won't. Yes, I believe it's going to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

So, for me, the big question is will Obama's team be able to return confidence to the market and consumers. If they manage to do that, we'll be on the way out of this recession in 2H 09, I don't care what the fundamentals say. If they don't... I don't care what the fundamentals say... we'll be stuck in Japan-land for a few years at least.

We'll find out soon enough.

There is not a lot of things Obama can do. It's TARP II time. A lot more important than the contents of it is how TARP II passes. Is there going to be bickering, or is everyone going to get behind it. Is it gonna fail once-twice in House or Senate. How much pork.

There might be a short bump after inauguration. (Expect comments here on SA to all declare a new bull market). Unfortunately, we will have to wait a bit longer than that. Hopefully not too long. I really do hope Obama hits the ground running.

Financial Meltdown: Good Luck, Bad Luck, Who Knows?

Since we are getting all philosophical here, let me just say:

Black Swans are in the eyes of the beholder. There are no swans....

Does the Santa Claus Rally Exist?

.... and this year is just an average old year.

Kids, kids, kids. Haven't we said that this year all the tricks are out the window?

To Understand Inflation, Follow the Money

Good article, until the last sentence:

> While this prediction, if true, would bring welcome relief in terms of
> prices, it is a rather dire prediction in that our economy relies on cheap
> money for its growth.

... which pretty much negates your entire story. Our economy does indeed rely on cheap money for its growth. Herro? Where have you been for the past 200 years?

But the perceived value of money is not just determined by the amount of it. It is also "the trust" that people put into it.

US has this enormous leverage, because the rest of the world considers USD a "reserve currency." As good as gold. It took a long time to build that reputation.

However, that trust is lost more easily than some people believe. And once it is lost, it takes forever and a day to regain the trust, if possible at all. Sort of like a priest who gets caught with his pants down in a room with a teenager.

How Correlated Are Global Markets?

I always thought Japan's trading session came BEFORE US, given that they are timezones ahead, and that Japan's Monday reacts to New York's Friday.

What I have noticed is that Asia will follow New York's yesterday, however, if New York fell the previous days in the absence of any bad news ("Investors' fear of recessions pulls stocks down" headlines by "analysts"), Asia might actually pull up a bit in anticipation of a rebound in the US the next day.

Also do not forget that some news come "after hours" in New York, and they are watched and affect Asia/Europe right away.

I would say there is a STRONG correlation, although your method might miss it.

How Low Can They Go?

Hey, but you gotta admit something. Even this is better than the folks calling the bottom.

Equity Futures Moving Higher

Don't bet against the dollar. I did and lost.

Dollar sucks. US economy sucks. US masters suck.

But guess what. The Europeans are spineless servants of the US. It's even worse there. You think Americans are spoiled because they borrow too much money? The French borrow just as much, and work 34 hour weeks and take month long vacations. Talk about being spoiled. Inflation is far worse in Euro zone than in the US.

Who else? Japan? C'mon.

Chinese yuan actually might be a contender, but the Chinese are not gonna let yuan appreciate too much against the dollar. Maybe a few percent for show. Anything more than that and Chinese goods are too expensive. And what with the trillion dollars they hold? They are just gonna let it evaporate?

So.... dollar sucks. Euro sucks more. Japan has been dead for two decades. China will legislate its currency.

The dollar is dead, long live the dollar!

Chasing Unicorns: The Cycle Gods Are Still Playing with Us Mere Mortals

Y'all forgot Bernanke's nickname. Helicopter Ben. And why? Because he, quoting Milton Friedman, told Congress that "US has the technology to beat deflation." Print money and drop it from the helicopter.

Using this "technology" Ben could force inflation. And inflation, although it kills the little guy (wipes all his life savings), can be good for the government. Its debt becomes worthless too. (Bailout? Trillion schmillion) And the stock market? Well, it inflates too. Dow at 50,000.

What market crash?

Sure it will kill the dollar. But if you haven't noticed, they gave up on the dollar a long time ago. Besides, who got the most gold? Des' right. So we covered.

If you're "we".

Are More Big Falls Ahead?

There might not be big drops. But I think we are going to "recover" from this rally over a period of a few weeks. Little by little....

The Crash of 2008

I second Moses. That fact that everyone is cheerleading a bottom is a clear sign that it ain't.

We will surely have a technical rebound. Just in time for the "analysts" to cash out.

Bottom or not, we're not gonna see Dow back in the 5 digits for at least a year and probably two or three. And that's an optimistic scenario. This time to take the Dow back up folks are gonna have to work for it. You won't be able to scam'em into it.

Cramer: Dow Could Drop Another 14%, Oil's Going to $50

I don't know how Obama will do. But I do know that more Bush will destroy America.

Folks (and that's what you liked to be called?!), we've had a 9/11 and the biggest financial crises since the depression under Bush's watch. Not under my watch. Not under Bill Clinton's. His watch. Bush. He borrowed money from China to get us stuck in two wars with no end in sight and no victory in sight, while Osama is sending video greeting cards annually. And that's if you believe in the official version of 9/11.

We won't talk about Gitmo or Abu Ghraib cause I know you folks don't care much about that, torture and human rights and stuff.

What's the Dow been like under Bush? Where was it when he entered the office, and where is it now? What was the Dow performance under the last Democratic president?

Socialism. SOCIALISM. You Republicans out there still dare talk about SOCIALISM in America after what just happened? Under REPUBLICAN President.

Cut spending? You've had a Republican president and Republican Congress for 6 years. And did you cut spending?

The only thing Bush ever did while in office was cut taxes. That is the ONE and the ONLY promise he made that he delivered on. And NOTHING else.

I could have done that, folks. It's the easiest thing in the world.

So, no, I don't know much about Obama, really, and have no clue how he'll do. I just know that right now.... we'll be better off if I was the President, so long as it's not Bush or McBush.

p.s. oh, wait, I got it. Right. All of the above is nothing. AT LEAST BUSH GOT US CHEAP OIL AT THE PUMP, LIKE THIS DAD.