drys long

Good News For Dry Bulk Shipping

billf921 - can you run through how he grossly overpaid for OceanRig? I calculate a valuation of the company at around 8 times 2009 EBITDA - what do you get?

Petrobras: Extremely Overvalued

This guy is an expert on credit ratings, momentum trading, petroleum engineering, political science, and seismic reflection (that has yet to be shot). That's impressive considering that no one has ever heard of him. I'm sure he's not sticking his neck out as a means to get attention and maybe a few paying clients...

DryShips and the Oil Rush

163888, an investor doesn't make money based on the size of the fleet. I was just pointing out that if you were trying to decide which stock to buy in mid-2006 (I chose that time frame because both stocks were beaten down) you would have had roughly twice the price appreciation if you chose DRYS over DSX. What does it matter which company has more ships? I think Diana Shipping is a fine company (maybe it has more conservative management and therefore less risk) but there is no doubt which has been a better investment over the period. My post was really a response to DRYS being referred to as a laughing stock - that is the kind of message board nonsense that helps no one.

DryShips and the Oil Rush

DSX Lover - let's not get carried away bashing the investment in Ocean Rig. You might not understand the details (neither do I) but is it the most horrible investment possible? The company's two rigs are 5th generation harsh-environment semi-subs that command the highest dayrates in the global fleet. The foray into offshore drilling may be confusing but DRYS stock is clearly high risk/reward and will remain a pure play equity on dry bulk shipping rates. The investment might even pay off some day.

As for paying dividends and/or reducing debt - that is a fine strategy for a nice conservative company like DSX. When I look at the relative performance from the middle of 2006 I see DSX has gone from $10 to $27 while DRYS has gone from $10 to $60. Laughing stock??

Bullish on Commodities? Consider DryShips

I think the stock has the valuation that it has because of scepticism regarding the CEO and, from what I understand, the market expects a flood of newbuilds in 2009 (I can't confirm this). Between now and then DRYS will likely trade as a leveraged play on the Baltic Dry Index. As the index bounces around so will DRYS but more violently (I'd love to know the beta for DRYS vs. the BDI). With sell-side research price targets ranging from $55 to $160 there is certainly room for both longs and shorts to be involved. Thanks to daverichmond for the color (above).

Dryships' Short Squeeze Potential

Saint Xinon "I assume fair value should be 30"

If you are arguing that steel companies are moving closer to iron ore mines does that also mean that farmers are moving closer to fertilizer supplies?

As for dry bulk shipbulding, wouldn't high steel prices make newbuilds more expensive and existing vessels more valuable?

I don't mind short sellers touting their position - if the reasons make sense I am happy to say that we agree to disagree and let the best man win but your reasoning is weak and you offer no calculation as to how you get to $30. Is that just your gut sense - that the stock will go down 50% from here? Good luck

Dryships' Increasingly Valuable Fleet of Vessels

China is not slowing - overheating maybe but they are not buying any less seaborne iron ore. Fyi - Jefferies has a $160 price target for DRYS.

Dryships: Undervalued Compared to Competitors - and the Market

Ocean Rig is a publicly traded company in Norway. They own two high-quality drilling rigs that have been working for several years. When compared to other drillers OCR stock isn't particularly cheap. It doesn't really make a lot a sense to have a company with only 2 rigs as any operational problem can knock out half your cashflow. The investment in OCR can be debated - I don't know if the 30% purchase was a great a deal or not - but I do know that deepwater offshore drilling is a great business. I imagine that DRYS will record a proportional share of OCR profit as minority interest earnings on their income statement - does that sound right?

DryShips Deserves More Love

There are six broker-dealers offering EPS estimates for 2008. I'm going to assume that none of them listen to Cramer or just take the CEO's word for it. I imagine that they take the number of ships x dayrate minus operating expenses and interest expense etc. If you go through this exercise and come out with a $10 stock then your math is wrong.

As far as the industry - any quick web search will tell you that iron ore, coal, and fertilizer are all in huge bull markets right now.

DryShips Deserves More Love

'08E $16.56 '09E $11.62 are the estimates of Cantor Fitzgerald. The average for '08E is $19.22 according to Bloomberg (highest estimate is from Oppenheimer $21.96).