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Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece?

Konst, you do know most of the share dilution took place in 2003 right 90 % of it, if we are talking about SIRI. I do not include the new dilution of 1.5 billion to get XMSR because they now have twice the assets they had before the merger.

Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece?

killerkaul, not trying to act like god, as you know to me it is just common sense. The problem I have is that many dont see it, I ask myself why. Look at Brandons last article what have I been saying now for the last few months that financing is no big deal, and now GS and ML analyst believe that the Feb. converts are not the problem anymore that they will get that done. They are now moving to the credit facility due in May. You watch now that will be the new issue as "relmor" has said, in the comments on that article. Dolts will start to believe that also, but as I said, those are not a issue ether for the reasons I gave above. Will they follow common sense and lodgic on that, No they will believe the new montra. It is not me that makes me look like a god it is other peoples lack of common sense. Besides would a god have as many typos as I have.

Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece?

hernje, you ever heard of the first 2 times K-Mart went bankrupt it was actually bankruotcy protection the share holders kept their shares and the debt holders and distriputors had to bit the big one. You remember Chrysler, or most of the airlines. They all keep the old share holders, the fact is if a court finds that a company is better off staying in business then he will force debt holders to hold off and refinance the old debt. The judges purpose is to try and make as many people as whole as possible. If he finds that a company would be able to pay off its debt because the business model is still good and they just need more time then he gives it to them. The metrics of this company have already shown that they are starting to become stable. You honestly cant sit there and say that going from a negitive 300 million adjusted profit this year to a positive 300 million adjusted profit next year does not show this. I dont believe even if what you talk about comes true that there is a judge out, that would not give the company with improving mertrics like that more time. The proof is K-Mart if they were willing to give that company more time twice before then he would do it for SIRIXM. (NOTE: when K-Mart filed for the third time the share holders then lost all there shares)

Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece?

killerkaul, Just look under your last comment it expains everything. people like that would be manipulated by the take over company to force a vote on it or to force a vote to change the board members. I just hope we get through the next few months then we would be safe from even that worry. As a matter of fact if that kind of thing happened in a few months (about 4) then that would be good, because it would push the PPS up and not be so bad to just do what GS wants. It would be to late to get a deal like that forced through because financing would be clear to even the dolts, to vote for a sell out.


Well This Might Be SIRIUS?, No problem

Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece?

killerkaul, and Well This Might Be SIRIUS?, I was just making a statement of sense. The fact is the financing has been talked about. There will most likely be no trouble there for the reasons I gave above. The problem with alot of people is this they are so pissy about the PPS being where it is, they might vote for a low PPS in a takeover. This is all because people have been manipulated into believing that this company is going to have trouble with the financing. You know if I did not know any better I would think this was the plan in the first place. Get the PPS so low it makes it a easy takeover target. The only thing we have to stop something like this is a board that would flat out reject it, out of hand because they are not as dumb as most of the people here that think financing is going to be a problem. killerkaul how many times have I been correct about things, and what have I always said; it always seemed to me to be as clear as day to me. I am saying it right now, it is as clear as it can be that the financing will go through, it is no big deal. The worst that happens is Mel gets stuck reconverting GS old ones, at a better rate and stick price.

Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece?

Well This Might Be SIRIUS?, I would be more worried about that then going bankrupt. That for me is as Tyler has said is my biggest worry. Maybe not JP Morgan but by others also. If investors in SIRIXM want to worry about something that is reasonable to worry about, being bought out for a price that would not be exceptable for all that we have gone through. I dont know about anyone else but the thing that would piss me off is a offer for 3 (even though I would still make money) just a few quarters or months before it would be at that price anyway. Not to mention the price it would be at, in the long term.


People have got to remember if has only been a few weeks (cant even say a few months yet) since the merger. My god people have to give it some time, I would say 2 or 3 quarters at least, for god sake.

Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece?

cos1000, no problem, I was making a statement more or less to get the facts out about this bail out plan.

Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece?

cos1000, I am more or less mad at the SIRIXM investors here and other places that still dont get it, and fall into the fallacy that the financing is a big deal.

For those that are still confused. As I and others and Mel have said before the Feb. converts will be taken care of using a cash on hand for half and a loan for the other half (150 million is what we are talking about getting financed in Feb., not a whole lot when put into prespective.). Next the May credit facility that is as I have said before, is ridiculous to even be worried about. The fact is it is not asking for more money it is asking for an extention by a company that has as of yet not missed one payment. Not to mention the people that are being asked, have a vested interest in the company succeeding besides the credit they have given them. Finally the Dec. 2009 converts once again Mel has said he does not foresee a problem because by then the company will be FCF positive and their credit will have improved greatly. Besides as I have said does it make any sense for people that have no insured investment on those coverts to take a company down (maybe getting pennies on the dollar) that is showing that it can pay you back in full at a latter date. It is not a policy of investors in converts to force a company into bankruptcy to get a small fraction back on the money loaned, unless they dont think the company will be able to pay them back. That is not the case looking at SIRI improving metrics even at this point. That for the matter gets me back to the converts back in Feb. which if you read what has been said, GS was more then happy and woulod make the most sense that they would like to do a reconvert at a better % and a better convert price who wouldn't they now have a covert price of somewhere in the 4s and a percentage of 1.75%. They would be able to get a convert price of something like .80 cents and most likely a better %. Mel has said that is not the way he wants to go.

Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece?

Well This Might Be SIRIUS?, you are right but it will be longer then you think, because it will take a very long time before those recievers are in the hands of most of the subcribers. I think for the next 5 or 6 years.

Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece?

cos1000, My point being that reguardless if it was, the deal was not going to be passed the way it was. The democrats needed political cover from the republicans for passing a bad deal and the house republicans were not going to give it to them, by voting for it because they were hearing from their constituants (in both parties) in big numbers, that they did not want it. It was not Presidential politics that stoped it it was the fact it was a bad deal that stoped it. On top of the fact that the democrats wanted a lot of add ons to it, things that had nothing to do with the bailout.

Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece?

BURTBECK, The problem people have with you is the same as they have with analyst, Jonathon Jacopy and Mark W. While the fact that their price targets have been reached, the analysis that got it there was wrong. This stock has not reacted the way other stocks do, it has done the opposite. Take a look at TIVO, that is an example of the PPS doing what it should in a new speculative company. Just go back and look at the news that came out and the way the PPS reacted. I would also say DISH but the news is to old for you to go back and see, but trust me that reacted the way it should on a speculative company with major debt and other major problems.

Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece?

cos1000, Not to be picky but you said this: "and the bail out plan has been thrown into the Presidential election." that with all due respect my friend, I took offrence to. I would like this to be taken care of also but I thought the bail out deal that was being talked about was a bad one. Even though they (the government) may even make money on it.

Next while the deal is not done, it is been discussed as to what would be done and that it is not a problem, to the fact that it would not get done. It is more or less a terms issue not weather it gets done or not. As a example lets say you want to buy a house you have the cash to pay for it out right but do you finance 50% if you get a good rate or not. As to the May credit being extended, I agree as you know, dont even think for most this should be a issue, because it really is not. But that has really not been talked about. or been given the kind of confirmation that the Feb. converts have. While Mel has said they plain on extending them he has not shown the confedence that he has shown on the Feb. converts. That was the only point I was making, that it was more of a concern then the other.

Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece?

Now that that is over, I would just like to say dosen't anyone read or listen to what is said. Mel already said that the Feb. debt was going to be taken care of. He gave specific details how it would be. While he did not say which back would finance the rest of the converts, he did say that some would be taken care of using cash on hand and a loan for the rest. My god what more needed to be said about this, yet I still see everyone saying they have not taken care of the converts in Feb. Mel basically said that they are going to be takin care of, that they are not that big of a problem. The problem is how much interest they may pay and that he is not in any big rush to finalize it this time and wants the best deal he can get. I mean my god if you want to be worried about financing then say you are worried about the May debt, that still needs something to be talked about.

Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece?

cos1000, First of all I have to say the bail out deal that the democrats wanted was not a good one. The truth is the fact that if the democrats wanted to pass it, they could by them selfs. The fact is they do not want to unless the republicans vote for it, because they know how bad it is also, and dont want the republicans to be able to go back to the people and say this is not what we wanted, this is all the democrats doing. It was senator Reed that called for McCain on Tue. to put his support behind it and if he did not then the republicans would not and the democrats would not. I believe McCain being the man he is knew there was no deal and it would fail unless some kind of compromise was reached. I believe McCain knew what was going on with the house republicans and how bad they felt about this, there was already information being let out that the republicans were getting calls that were overwhemingly against this bail out bill and they were not going to vote for it.). Lets remember this is the same man that supported the serge when it was not popular and looked like it would cost him the election.

Goldman's Sirius Call: Solid Thesis, Poor Timing

Moderator, ok I found one in europe by BMW not much information on it but at least it is there.