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Is Sirius XM Headed the Way of Old Radio?

I'm not Jim Cramer, It to me does not make any sense. The satellites that are up now have (according the last 10-K) orbital life spans that still takes them into 2015. I know there are things on the new satellites that SIRIXM would like to have as part of their system. The question is, what is it needed and what is wanted. From what I read and understand it is a want and not a need.

Is Sirius XM Headed the Way of Old Radio?

I'm not Jim Cramer, you would think so wouldn't you. That is the problem I am having and asked the people that think SIRIXM is in such trouble financially.

Is Sirius XM Headed the Way of Old Radio?

Well This Might Be SIRIUS?, IMO no he was not. Correct me if I am wrong, but that had to deal with short term interest rates.

Is Sirius XM Headed the Way of Old Radio?

I have a question for people that think SIRIXM is in financial trouble. Why would they be spending almost 250 million to launch a satellite that is not absolutely needed till 2015, when the present ones are passed their OLS. I know you cant wait till the last minute to put a new one up, but you could wait til 2013 at least if the present ones are able to last till 2015. I have to say I would be very pissed if they did go bankrupt and spent 250 million on a satellite that they could not afford and did not absolutely need. My point is until I hear SIRIXM push that launch back, I have a hard time thinking they will even have a chance at going bankrupt.

Is Sirius XM Headed the Way of Old Radio?

killerkaul, Now I know you saw the interview Mel had with Cramer. You dont say what Mel had to say about Mark W., who represents GS., without feeling major anger towards them. Mel walked a fine line when he almost called Mark W. a criminal.

Is Sirius XM Headed the Way of Old Radio?

relmor, After seeing what Mel had to say about Mark W. of GS. I find that unlikely. I believe Mel is as pissed at GS as a person can be. GS is willing to reconvert their present converts because they know the truth that SIRIXM is going to survive and they want to make money, nothing personal. On the flip side of this is some good news though if SIRIXM does let GS reconvert then you can be sure that the remaining 350 million due in May will be refinanced. GS at that point will have every reason to make sure SIRIXM makes it.

Is Sirius XM Headed the Way of Old Radio?

hairpie, I believe the finacing while is a concern, should be resolved in the end. I think Mel wants to settle this first part as soon as possible but does not want to give GS what it wants. I believe Mel made it clear, that he could resolve this issue now but does not want it to be like the terms he got from the deal he got at the time of the merger. That is the problem and something I have said before about it not being weather SIRIXM gets the financing done or not but on how good the terms are. Mel would like nothing more then to screw GS for what they have done to his company. The last resort would be for MEL to give GS exactly what GS wants. Which is a reconvert at a lower convert price and a higher interest rate. Think about it this way GS now has a convert price of something like 4.36 a share, GS would love to get that convert changed to .52 cents a share.

I also cannot understand why people think being delisted is the end of a stock, it is not. First of all it takes some time for that to happen after a stock drops below a buck. I think it is just over 6 months. Next even if it is delisted as long as the financials are taken care of, it is not the end of the company or your investment. It also can still be traded.

Is Sirius XM Headed the Way of Old Radio?

hairpie, It is really closer to 200 million a month. Second as I said they are good till the first convert of 300 million due in Feb., of which 130 million GS wants to reconvert and so will the remaining investors of the 170 million in converts. Mel wants to screw GS and does not want to give GS a new convert he would rather just get a bank loan and pay them off. The worse case happens on this, is that SIRIXM has to reconvert GS converts. Next is the 350 million due in May, that has to be refinanced SIRIXM has the cash if needed to pay this off. Then they have the last 400 million in converts due in Dec. That is the first time that they may have some trouble if those investors that own those converts do not want to reconvert. That IMO will happen as I said before, noone wants pennys on the dollar when if they wait a little longer they can get their money back plus a profit. The fact is people that own the converts will take a company down to just get pennies on the dollar if they feel the company will not be able to ever pay them back because the business model is not ever going to show a profit, and may out right fail. Now even if what Mel said come true on his conservative estimates happens, then they will show that SIRIXM will be profitable and sustainable. Therefore there would be no reason not to reconvert the remaining converts.

Is Sirius XM Headed the Way of Old Radio?

amibankrupt, The reason they have not gotten into Europe and most likely will not is satellite radio is based on OEMs, thats right the car. Without the car thier would be no need for satellite radio. Europeans dont drive if you compare them to the US. A clear example is how well World Space is, and will do. That is exactly the reason internet in the car needs to happen before internet radio can even start to discuss being competive with satellite. That is if they can even get beyond not having a profitable business model in the first place.

Is Sirius XM Headed the Way of Old Radio?

jswede, I am not saying that internet in the car will never happen. What I am saying is that SIRIXM will have moved way pass the point of tring to just get revenue from radio by the time it does. My god they are already doing it, they are starting to go after the GPS market, not to mention, tv, ect., ect.

Is Sirius XM Headed the Way of Old Radio?

jswede, First of all most people get satellite radio to listen to in their car. that is the main reason for satellite radio. Internet in the car is far from being a viable thing. As we talked about, you cant commute by staying in one place to get a connection. We also talked about the end cost for internet radio being way to high for most compared to satellite radio.

Is Sirius XM Headed the Way of Old Radio?

jswede, internet radio companies were the ones a year ago saying they could not make it if the rates went up anymore, then they are now and that the present rates were difficult to deal with, well they are going up. jswede, You do know the rates are charged according to how many people listen to each song. the rates they are planning on charging leave almost nothing after advertising revenue because advertisers pay the same way as royalties are collected. It leaves only one conclusion that there is not enough revenue to make it after paying royalties. There is one chance for them, and that is if they put more commercials in then terrestrial radio.

Is Sirius XM Headed the Way of Old Radio?

Satdog, sorry but you took that the wrong way. I did not mean that Pandora was already closed but that they will have to close.

Is Sirius XM Headed the Way of Old Radio?

hairpie, The stock price does not mean it is going bankrupt. While if they get the remaining financing or not does. I feel the question is not weather they will get the financing. It is weather SIRIXM (Mel) will be able to screw GS or not. Actions and statements by both GS and SIRIXM show that GS who owns about half of the convertibles (130 million of the 300 million) that are coming due in Feb. want them to be reconverted. Mel is saying he does not want it refinanced the way GS does, the reasons are obvious. Then we have the other 350 million in May, now if those cannot be refinanced then SIRIXM has enough cash on hand to take care of it (this is not ideal for SIRIXM but possible). Then there is the last 400 million due in Dec. 2009 that need to be reconverted. Once again these do not need to be refinance just reconverted like the first ones due in Feb. with GS. I believe as I have said before that people holding the debt would much rather wait to get their money instead of trying to get pennies on the dollar now. Debt holders will be willing to take a company down to get pennies on the dollar if they believe the company is failing and will not be able to pay then back anyway. Many people have forgotten SIRI/XMSR has not ever missed a payment and by the time the debt comes due SIRIXM will be in even better shape then it is now, it gets better with each passing day. It is not looking like a company that will not pay them back, hence they would wait for wait is owed them.

Is Sirius XM Headed the Way of Old Radio?

Why dont you check this out jswede;

www.washingtonpost.com...

Now while you think SIRIXM is going bankrupt, why would you not think that about Pandra, when the CEO and founder Tim westergren says it.