163888

Goldman's Sirius Call: Solid Thesis, Poor Timing

Moderator, ok I found one in europe by BMW not much information on it but at least it is there.

Goldman's Sirius Call: Solid Thesis, Poor Timing

huerix, you beat me to the punch.

Goldman's Sirius Call: Solid Thesis, Poor Timing

moderator, The problem people have is first of all while you may think that internet radio will be this big competetion to satellite radio. Where is his or your proof. You have none, except speculation, the same thing you and he are saying we are doing. The problem is what you both are doing is worse you and he are speculating on technology that does not exsit in a practical manner yet. They have yet, to even make WiFi avalible through out whole cities, much less being able to get it to have a uninterupted signal not only in big cities but all over. But that does not stop you and him writing about it being competetion. If you are going to argue about something you cant speculate about some competetion that is not even out for all intent and purposes yet. Your arguement will fall flat on its face. You have got to back up your arguement with premises that have some fact. To say well we will have internet in cars because that seems like the next logical step, is a terrible arguement to start off with. You can not pull one figure out, to show how this would be possible. Why, because they dont exist yet. To go from the home to a moving car, is still a big jump in technology and cost. When you and Mike figure that one out, then come back to me. By the way I dont want fairy tales I want facts of actual applications were someone was able to put internet in a car, then drive around and keep a signal.

Goldman's Sirius Call: Solid Thesis, Poor Timing

common sense people it gos along way.

Goldman's Sirius Call: Solid Thesis, Poor Timing

cos1000, I dont remember him actually stating he was not Dave, I do however remember him saying you jump to fast to conclusions, but dont ever recall him saying he was not Dave. I will say I am 99% sure Vicor of Value is Dave or it is one of the bigest quintessence I have seen. Dave first says he has not heard of Tayler Savery which means he has not read Seeking Alpha in this sector. Then days later Vicar of Value shows up making his first post ever on Seeking Alpha, saying the same thing on that post as Dave was saying on Barrons. Dave the jig is up, it was up a long time ago, you are just to dumb to know it. cos1000 This is why I said I would not respond to him, I refuse to respond to bafoons.


219355, I already covered that to in a post before. It is why Mike is also an idiot


Merger Mania and sjpinsea, very good points.


WFC, I absolutely agree with most of your post at 3:55 PM. I have said it from the begining That is also why SIRI poped from 6 to 9 alot of people thought that much of Mel (while I like Mel, I did not think it dictated the stock being that high though). He is no dummy, he knows full well what he was doing when he took a pay cut to come to SIRI. I will go into more detail about that after a decsion is made.


Seamless82, shut the hell up until the decision is made. The next thing you will see, is somebody using the 25mhz reason as to why the merger should not go through.


WFC, I would say Mike is very intelligent. There were alot of intelligent people foretelling the downfall of satellite TV also. He is a bafoon because he also does not look at both sides of this sector though. He has let his bias get in the way, to say internet radio is going to be the main reason for the downfall of satellite radio shows that bias. Internet radio has more problems then satellite radio right now, the least of which is how to be put it in cars and have a constant signal every where you go not just in the cities big enough that WyFi has been made avaible, which still has not happen yet by the way. Internet in cars well be to expensive for most companies to want to take the risk to subsidize it (also the reason they pulled out of subsidizing it, in the cities). People are down on satellite radio because they have such a dept load. Where do they think more then half of that dept came from. How much do they think it cost to put a 100 plus subsidy in well over 15 million cars to date. I have said it before and will say it again they are paying ahead for the growth. they may have been profitable by now if they would have left penitration at 15%, or 20% the highest price points of the OEM market. The all in churn would have been almost nonexistant and so would have the selfpaying churn there would have been almost no waste because almost every radio would have had a subscription. The growth on the other hand would have been almost at a snails pace though.

Goldman's Sirius Call: Solid Thesis, Poor Timing

219312, I will just say. I guarantee you, Mel Karmazin has more knowledge about the workings of the radio business then this guy (Mike Stathis) and for that matter most in the radio bussiness it self. Why do you think a man that smart took a pay cut to come to SIRI. I can tell you it wasn't just because he and the chairman of the board at Viacom did not get along, by the way even though they did not get along he kept Mel K. He could have gone anywhere in radio, hell I believe anywhere in any sector and made twice as much as he is making as SIRI. One would have to ask yourself why would a man like Mel K. go to such a small company that could go out bussiness. Because lets face it things where much more shakey back then, then they are now.

Goldman's Sirius Call: Solid Thesis, Poor Timing

Sirius Fan, He will not be able to cash that check because by his own logic terrestrial radio will also be put out of business. I only have to ask why are their stocks not at two dollars. If a bussiness is doomed it is doomed weather it be a year or 4 years down the line I would not want to be in it.

I do wonder if he has any articles telling us of the terrestrial radios doom also.

Goldman's Sirius Call: Solid Thesis, Poor Timing

BERTBECK, I will tell you why, because when he first anounced everyone thought a full vote would be out very soon, then what do we here, Tate may be on the fence, it still is not a sure thing, more concessions maybe added ect.ect. Until people see that it is absolutely for sure then it will pop. I have never thought it would go very high do to it taking to long (3.8 is what I figured). That it would need the companies coming out with good guidance, and something about new product coming out soon, to even get that high. Now if we where talking about the end of last year or beginning of this year, I think even you would agree things would have been different. I do believe If they tell us that the interoperable radios will be available very soon then you will see everything pick up. I believe that once those radios are available that changes everything. That radio is the key, also to most synergies, along with CAPEX.

Goldman's Sirius Call: Solid Thesis, Poor Timing

ripped, That is exaxtly what I was going to say. I seem to recall all the internet radio people claiming they were having a hard time now, with the old royalties that they where paying and if the new ones where put in, then they would not make it. By the way, even the cities are having a hard time getting wifi throughout the city, so even if that happens what is the internet going to do about small towns and rural areas. I guess they will be out of luck, according to you, mike. As of right now and in the near future satellite is the only way to maintain a constant connection with out putting towers everywhere. I also have some news Mark W. has been bearish on the satellite sector for at least 2 years that I recall.


By your estimate, I have to wonder why radio stocks such as CCU are not much much lower. After all, they will be put out of business by this also. Content is and always will be king. Weather it is terrestrial or internet unless it is a paid subscription you are going to have less of it and of poorer quality. Same reason people pay for cable/satellite tv. I am sure many like you, back then thought no one would pay for something they could get for free, except it was not the same content was it.

I am glad I never listened to people like you when it came to DISH and DTV. I would still be working for a living. Yes that is right I heard the samething then also. The cost are to high, there is already to much competetion, they are carring to much dept, ect., ect., ect.

FCC Decision on Sirius/XM Merger May Be as Late as May - Stifel

fredlee, I agree, and that is the reason Mel K. has said that; The agreement that both companies would not be allowed to merge is not legally binding.

FCC Decision on Sirius/XM Merger May Be as Late as May - Stifel

2.4 was a joke, who here thought it wasn't over sold. I never thought I would be able to buy back shares at this again. The last time it was there, SIRI was a vary distant second to XMSR with just over 600,000 subs to there name, and only getting about 100,000 subs a quarter. Now are they still lossing money with 8.3 million, yes. That is because they are going after growth, in a way they never have before that time. It cost them what about a 100.00 for each chipset in each car, half of which they do not get. That still leaves the other half they would not have gotten if they did not ramp up penitration. It does take some time for revenues from existing subs to overtake the cost of that kind of growth. What I think many are missing is, when they say that they where expecting the two to be profitable with as many subs as they have, have forgotten they did not expect them to have this many subs so fast as they did at that time about 2.5 years ago. What I am saying is the time frames to be profitable have not changed, just the amount of subs to get there. I believe when that point has been crossed they will be generating profits at a faster rate and be much better off, then if they would have stuck to their old model of slow and easy. Reason being once that point is crossed, they will reach a point much faster were they do not need to be to concerned with growth, and all the cost that gos with it will also not be there.

FCC Decision on Sirius/XM Merger May Be as Late as May - Stifel

At this point this has gotten ridiculous. It isn't like the FCC didnt have a year before the DOJ approved, to do all that they are doing now. If it is the democrats that are holding this up, F them. Its not like decisions in the FCC have not gone along party lines before. I have to say this is one issue in a long time were democrat and republican subcribers and investors are in for the most part total agreement.