InnocentsAbroad

Bullishness at Contrarian Extreme

I am still of the opinion that trying to make sense of Federal policy as it has a impact on the markets and the economy is unlikely to produce a good prediction, unless you own the politicians in question (and even then, the law of unintended consequences holds).

Normal people (the non super rich) are best to recognize that there will be times when the unfortunate occurs (derivative meltdowns, monetary collapses, etc).

Given that, it is likely that all the best of times has been included in current equity prices -- leaving little room for bad news.

However, in the long run, the US will always be the best investment bet, for the simple reason that, crazy as we Americans are, we are more sane than everyone else.

Is the Fed Really Printing Money?

Will someone please highlight where it is possible to get data on

(1) the distribution of the holders of money market funds (banks vs insurance cos., vs. thrifts, vs. tech cos.

and

(2) how to get weekly (or even daily) data on the rates paid on excess reserves ?

Sorry to place this in theis nice article. I'm going to be looking about, but SA has so many good resources (writers) that I am wondering if I missed an article outlining this).

What's Good for GE Is Good for America?

A cap and trade only works if the design is separate from the lobbying and attempts to cash in on cap and trade by the rich and powerful.

A carbon tax covers all the bases, except the idiots in the Tea Bag movement etc. have so little knowledge of economics that they aren't able to understand that is the most efficient carbon production prevention method.

To paraphrase Winston Churchill, middle class white Americans will only do the right thing when they have exhausted all of the alternatives.

What's Good for GE Is Good for America?

So, then, if the world is threatened by global warming, then those who are worried about it should be made to pay, while the callous and indifferent to the future of the planet make a profit on the safety of the planet ?

What's Good for GE Is Good for America?

kk

Free Cash Flow Isn't Always so Free

Thanks for the inspiration for ideas for correcting cash flow.

Cash flow needs to be discounted by several possibilities -- refinancings at higher rates, need for plant repair, and concerns about debt that may end up being difficult to refinance.

CBO on the New Kennedy Health Care Reform Bill

The simplest measure to reduce health costs is to make HMOs and insurance companies (and drug plan administrators) liable for injuries and illnesses that are the outcome of denials.

How the Banks Once Bailed Out America

Nice bit of history. If I'm not mistaken, these were Federally owned banks that sold shares to the public to raise capital for the owner (the Federal government).

Hard to believe it, but the Founding Fathers were entrepeneurs for the Federal government (state ownership of land and banks, an entrepeneurial Federal government buying and selling shares and land).

Later, when public complaints emerged about the conduct of the national (Federal banks), it was in the context of mismanagement as control slipped into the hands of early oligarchs.

Among the many reasons for the rush to move a cap-and-trade system through Congress: a growing shift in the global warming tide of opinion.

Whoops. Basic physics does hold. changing the composition of the atmosphere shifts the movement of radiant heat. Sun cycles do not change atmospheric composition.

There will always be debates about the meaning of any given scientific data. Fortunately, the American public at a certain point makes reasonable decisions about the wisdom of any given scientific consensus, and is willing to have public policy proceed.

On Jun 26 02:35 PM Hask wrote:

> Carbon-based, man-made global warming has been a fraud from the start
> and now the evidence is waking people up to this reality. Sun cycles
> are much more important in changing short-term temperatures and I
> don't think politicians have the ability to legislate away those.
> If the fools in Congress pass this Cap & Trade bill they will
> further devastate an already weak economy and have negligible effect
> on the climate. Spain has tried this path and it failed miserably.
> Emerging economies will not follow this hamstring their economies
> based on faulty "science" and America will suffer economically for
> generations. Let's hope this bill fails and reasonable efforts are
> made to get scientific facts on this issue out in the open.

Rolling Stone's poison-penned Matt Taibbi lays waste to Goldman Sachs (GS), again. Here's the intro: "From tech stocks to high gas prices, Goldman Sachs has engineered every major market manipulation since the Great Depression - and they're about to do it again..."

Right. But the alternative is chaos or autarchy. I'd like to think that at some point, the democratic process works because my fellow citizens have a core of a capacity for self rule. Overoptimistic and naive, but still, the alternatives are worse.


On Jun 25 12:59 PM Neil459 wrote:

> For someone that believes in propaganda, I'll bet it is. But you
> should believe in facts. The facts are that its not GS that is allowing
> GS to take advantage. Its corrupt government staffers at all levels
> that are supposed to protect us from these types of manipulation
> that are allowing this to happen. And still a lot of people think
> that giving government more power will make it go away. What a joke.
>
>
> That GS is working in self interest is true. That this government
> will solve it is simply ignorance.
>
> On Jun 25 12:23 PM D_Virginia wrote:

AIG Dumps Two Toxic Assets on the Fed

Sounds like the Fed is becoming the de facto U.S. national hedge fund.

Cap and Trade Nightmare

The comments expressing difficulty with accepting current scientific consensus (that global warming is accelerating), clarify why efficient markets work only in the long run.

There are likely to be several generations of carbon emission control regimes. Many smart and corrupt people will make fortunes in the process. That is in the nature of a democracy. Better to have corruption rather than oppression.

Here's Why We Need a Tax on Oil Imports

Almost any means of increasing the cost of carbon emissions could be construed as restraint of trade. Doing it on a Federal level is the only alternative to doing it on a global level -- (and with an accompanying global government - which isn't going to happen}.


On Jun 25 08:13 AM john s. gordon wrote:

> restraint of trade such as you are proposing certainly would generate
> squawks from the international trade organizations.

Five Mistakes of Developing Traders

Thanks for the article.

S&P Launches New Metals Index

Glad to see aluminum is being split out into a sub index. Any thoughts on magnesium and titanium (in particulate or refined form), as a potential part of an aluminum index ?