donzoab

Why Wells Fargo Is a Great Buy

Steve J, you're way off here. WFC had a AAA rating because the rating agencies fell down on the job. GE was AAA. They went to $5. If you believe the rating agencies you're just waiting to be cleaned out. Do some digging. Without all these continued false balance sheet items, wfc is still insolvent. They are just gambling that the economy and the housing market will turn around and save them billions in losses. Actual FASB standards would require them to write down HUGE losses in consumer, commercial and off balance sheet holdings. THis is a gamble with your tax $ as the executives cash out big on bonus's.


On Nov 05 07:48 AM Steve J wrote:

> donzooab,
> you state WFC "would be toast" if it were not for FASB rules changes.
> You need to review their 2008 balance sheet what 1) type of securities
> WFC had, 2) mix of depositors, and off BS 3) type of derivatives
> sold and bought in tandem with their liquidity.
> WFC had a AAA rating and 52 week high pps during late 2008 for a
> reason.

Why Wells Fargo Is a Great Buy

While I think longer term WFC is a survivor it is only due to the saving graces of political manipulation.
Without the suspension of FASB rules pertaining to off balance sheet holdings and mortgage servicing losses, ignoring mortgage and heloc losses and suspending foreclosures etc, this bank would be toast. Having Buffet behind you only helps bring additional support to manipulate the rules to suit your current problems.
Wachovia was one of the worst ponzi scheme banks in history. They paid employee bonus's on loans that were immediately underwater. Management pushed production over profitability and paid accordingly. Wells bought this mess while their own loan book was imploding.
Enter the government with tax payer money, fasb rules suspensions and SEC rule changes to support the stock. All at the expense of successful local banks that didn't participate in the securitization market.
Your thesis will most likely be right in the long run as the political machine is churning here, but reality is WFC is insolvent (and I didn't even get into their commercial losses). Nice to have friends in high places.

GE Down 10 Days in a Row

Taxing trading in that way is toutamount to socializm. What if we taxed your business like that. Liquidity in the markets are necessary to attract investment dollars.
I agree that some tactics need to be revised, i.e naked shorting but taxing traders is the wrong way to go.

Goldman Stockholders - What Chumps

The only chumps are the ones that didn

Is ConocoPhillips a Potential Multi-Bagger?

Nice piece, well written. Those that look at what Buffett is doing on any given qtrly basis just haven't a clue. He uncharacteristically bought at the top, and wisely sold some for tax writeoffs from other huge gains.
Oil isn't going away, and higher prices are sure to come one day. Alternative sources of energy are years away from making any meaningful dent in today's energy needs.
Buying cop in the low 40's ( as I have been doing) and booking the nice dividend will lead to significant gains down the road. Doing so in your Roth ira is even better as it will be tax free. If you're concerned that the stock will retest lows, sell a portion of the position and repurchase lower, booking the cash as a nice gain. Keep the core position in case you're wrong and the stock moves ever higher.
Either way you win.
Stop bashing other's opinions. Everyone's analysis can be different if you're looking at different metrics. Sudden changes in the economy, world politics, public perception or market demand can change the course of a companies earnings in the short term.
Its a shame some come on this or other boards and post insults, negative false ranting or other nonsense.
This is a very simple game. If you're long, post why. If you're short, post why. Let the market show who is right long and short term, and try to profit from it. Agree to disagree and benefit from each others analysis. In the end, you really don't have any say. The big institutions , hedge funds and investment banks control all the flow.

Johnson & Johnson: A Buy on Early Expansion Weakness

First, you had your chance at the $49 price target. Without a very large market selloff you won't see that price again
Second, management in public companies buy back stock when their options are coming up. This pushes the price per share up so they can maximize their profits. Why else would they be buying stock at the top of the market when they could be using this cash to fund more acquisitions to build out their pipelines. A thourough analysis of this behavior across the market is warrented.
I think your price targe is accurate though. Add the dividend over the next 4-5 years and this is as safe and solid a return as you can hope for.

Amazon: Bearish Pattern Forms

Nothing bearish about this patttern. Amzn has ALWAYS been a great buy when it gets at or below its 200dma. $75.5 would be a great entry point
It all depends if your looking for a trade or if your an investor.

Amzn will continue to grow for many years. If you ever bought anything on line they stand out as an amazing value and their service is fantastic

iPhone 3GS Owners Are Happy, Good for Apple

The reality is, 3gs is still overpriced and overhyped. Battery life is the worst yet. At & t service is useless. Many of the apps are just garbage.
I won't be upgrading again. My next move is back to the blackberry or Pre. Anything else. Time to go back to Verizon and get a phone that actually works and a PDA that can really surf the net.

Dow Target 6,617, October 25, 2009: Here Is Why

Great debate. here is my take.
For now, the market will follow the herd mentality and continue higher until the retail investors are all in.
The FED printing money will eventually lead to a blowoff top just like it did in 1999. Crushing debt, high unemployment, rampent inflation will follow. Municipal governements around the country are struggling to make their debt payments now. Wait unil the rate resets start in 2014 on the commercial RE market.
Investors are chasing return in the hope of gaining back staggering losses. When the tide turns, they will panic and not want to lose again. That may exasperate the power of the move down.
Cash for clunkers is a joke. Another ploy to help save a dying auto industry. Not because they can't innovate, because the refuse to do so. Foreign automakers are years ahead of them. They had their chance and blew it.
Banks/Brokerages and institutional investors have all been bailed out with YOUR tax money. Top execs win. You lose. Did you get a bailout? How is that home price fairing? You can't foreclose on your bank but they will surely go after you. Your tax money saves them and they foreclose on you with what's left. NICE!!!!!
At $11Trillion and rising, our national debt is becoming an enormous burden on our society and future generations. You work hard to send your tax money to china, russia, other countries????? Stupid. They in return send us inferior products and toxic toys. GREAT..
Add it up. Crushing debt, rising unemployment, crumbling infrastructure, commercial defaults, foreclosures, credit card defaults, socialistic new government, bankrupt medicaid,medicare, social security and aging population without retirement savings. Sure the market will rally with $4 trillion on the sidelines. Trouble is, nobody rings the bell at the top.

My New iPhone 3GS: Beyond Awesome

The battery on the IPHONE is garbage. You can't use it as a phone and location device unless it is plugged in. Won't last 1/2 a day AT BEST. Add to this A T & T service is the worst on the market. If it wasn't for this phone, AT&T would be out of business already. If another carrier gets this phone, they're dead.

Amazon's Zappos Acquisition Makes Good Stategic Sense

Yet another great move by Bezos to continue building the brand and diversifying the model. Cross selling opportunities abound and this is still only the begining. Growth will continue for another 10 years here.
Look for new highs to be coming and use pullbacks as the obvious opportunity to build a great position.

Energy Regulation Weighs on U.S. Exchanges

The piece you overlook is all the event driven pressure from hedgefunds colluding against a particular market.
When multiple funds conspire to push in one direction, efficient markets collapse. Just look at what happened to the financial services industry as a result of all the short activity.
supply and demand does not always work in the short term when these aggressive large players get together. This unethical behavior is what should be regulated/prosecuted.

How Nice Is a Merger with Verint?

Why would NICE pay $20/share for a dog like Verint.?? Nice has been winning market share for years over their competitors and continues to do so. It would be a smarter move to acquire smaller tech niche players and add services on top of their offerings to build revenue and cash flow.
This is also a very bad time to use up all of your cash or layer on substantial debt just to acquire a weaker competitor with vastly inferior products.

Roubini the Revisionist

your piece is very disingenuous. Nouriel did an amazing job pointing out the dangers in subprime and the collateralized debt markets. A 35% rally in this market pales in comparison to the 50% rally the market had during the great depresson. That went on to an even worse selloff. I expect once everyone realizes how bad the commercial market is, how underfunded many pension funds are, how phony many of the bank profits were in Q1, and what the level of bad bets being held offshore (thanks to a chicken FASB) and the horrors being created by a Fed that is creating money out of thin air the market will again turn tail and drop.
An economists job is to adjust to real world market changes. If you read any of the pieces on Mr Roubini's website, you will see that he is still negative on the US markets and expects futher declines. rgemonitor.com

7 Reasons Not to Buy Berkshire Hathaway

There are just too many things wrong with this article on which to comment. First and foremost is the obvious lack or proof reading.
Most disturbing is the total lack of focus on the insurance float. This FCF gives Buffet enormous leverage in investments.
The only thing preventing Buffet from doubling the share price from here would be his death. His diet of cherry coke and dairy queen should hasten this. I don't use most of his companies products but recognize the value of the holdings.