donzoab

Dow Target 6,617, October 25, 2009: Here Is Why

Great debate. here is my take.
For now, the market will follow the herd mentality and continue higher until the retail investors are all in.
The FED printing money will eventually lead to a blowoff top just like it did in 1999. Crushing debt, high unemployment, rampent inflation will follow. Municipal governements around the country are struggling to make their debt payments now. Wait unil the rate resets start in 2014 on the commercial RE market.
Investors are chasing return in the hope of gaining back staggering losses. When the tide turns, they will panic and not want to lose again. That may exasperate the power of the move down.
Cash for clunkers is a joke. Another ploy to help save a dying auto industry. Not because they can't innovate, because the refuse to do so. Foreign automakers are years ahead of them. They had their chance and blew it.
Banks/Brokerages and institutional investors have all been bailed out with YOUR tax money. Top execs win. You lose. Did you get a bailout? How is that home price fairing? You can't foreclose on your bank but they will surely go after you. Your tax money saves them and they foreclose on you with what's left. NICE!!!!!
At $11Trillion and rising, our national debt is becoming an enormous burden on our society and future generations. You work hard to send your tax money to china, russia, other countries????? Stupid. They in return send us inferior products and toxic toys. GREAT..
Add it up. Crushing debt, rising unemployment, crumbling infrastructure, commercial defaults, foreclosures, credit card defaults, socialistic new government, bankrupt medicaid,medicare, social security and aging population without retirement savings. Sure the market will rally with $4 trillion on the sidelines. Trouble is, nobody rings the bell at the top.

Sucker's Rally Approaching an End

Unemployement always increases the most at or near the END of a recession.
This type of deficit spending will eventually drive some consumer driven market increases, but in the longer run, it is extremely bad for our economy.
Future generations are going to foot the bill for our bad behaviors.
Some will still profit in this mayhem. Trading around your core positions will at least yield some free cash flow to your portfolio. Options can also limit your downside exposure.
Everyone so busy trying to call the bottom in the markets that they are missing the bigger pictures. Don't be distracted. More bad news lurking. Time will be needed to fix this as well as some fiscally responsible local/state and national budgets.

A New Quarter Begins: Looking Back, Looking Ahead

Nice piece. It always pays to watch some of these statistics to see what MAY lie ahead, however remember, Unemployment is a lagging indicator, 7 trillion in cash on the sidelines and the market always looks 9 months ahead. I agree the market is over bought in the short term, and many more problems lie ahead, but another wall street saw is " The market loves to climb a wall of worry". This is quite a large wall.

Roubini and Other Doomsayers Will Be Proven Wrong

Nice thoughts but just the section on world currency is tough. The chinese manipulate their currency so forcefully that how could you trust the value of one the whole world uses??
Too many conflicting players. Geithner's plan does nothing more then bail out Goldman Saks, JPM and other greedy players sending a bad signal to the worlds investors. (and think about the example it teaches our children). Shame

3 Reasons I Think a Bull Market Rally Is Imminent

The trendline here is irrefutable. The dow and s & p continue to set lower lows and lower highs.
9650 day of obama's election
9050 day of inauguration
8300 on this run??
We still have NOT tested the true low in 2002 or 7250. We will, be patient.

The Worst Is Likely Behind Us

I think you should look further into market history. The dow went nowhere from 1965-1983. During that time the real return was a negative 6%. During that time they didn't have 65 Trillion in CDS's sitting out there. No subprime problems. Banks continue to hoard cash and are not lending. Huge baby boomer population moving into retirement. Add the huge amount of overhead supply now in the stock market and you get set up for a long period or continuous selling into rallies.
Yes we will see rallies, and the smart patient investor will continue to buy at lower levels and sell into these rallies. however I do not see a strong return to growth in the stock market until 2017 at the earliest.

Meredith Whitney Threatens Severe Deflation For Your Portfolio

very onesided commentary. FYI, although Citi held their value in the 50 range for 3 years it was due to management manipulating their losses to hide this disaster. Looking at the potential losses in credit default swaps would make her predictions seem tame. How about putting the blame where it lays, with the CEO's that overlooked all this credit mess and collected HUGE bonus's while putting the average american home in default risk!!