donzoab

Roubini the Revisionist

your piece is very disingenuous. Nouriel did an amazing job pointing out the dangers in subprime and the collateralized debt markets. A 35% rally in this market pales in comparison to the 50% rally the market had during the great depresson. That went on to an even worse selloff. I expect once everyone realizes how bad the commercial market is, how underfunded many pension funds are, how phony many of the bank profits were in Q1, and what the level of bad bets being held offshore (thanks to a chicken FASB) and the horrors being created by a Fed that is creating money out of thin air the market will again turn tail and drop.
An economists job is to adjust to real world market changes. If you read any of the pieces on Mr Roubini's website, you will see that he is still negative on the US markets and expects futher declines. rgemonitor.com

Sucker's Rally Approaching an End

Unemployement always increases the most at or near the END of a recession.
This type of deficit spending will eventually drive some consumer driven market increases, but in the longer run, it is extremely bad for our economy.
Future generations are going to foot the bill for our bad behaviors.
Some will still profit in this mayhem. Trading around your core positions will at least yield some free cash flow to your portfolio. Options can also limit your downside exposure.
Everyone so busy trying to call the bottom in the markets that they are missing the bigger pictures. Don't be distracted. More bad news lurking. Time will be needed to fix this as well as some fiscally responsible local/state and national budgets.

A New Quarter Begins: Looking Back, Looking Ahead

Nice piece. It always pays to watch some of these statistics to see what MAY lie ahead, however remember, Unemployment is a lagging indicator, 7 trillion in cash on the sidelines and the market always looks 9 months ahead. I agree the market is over bought in the short term, and many more problems lie ahead, but another wall street saw is " The market loves to climb a wall of worry". This is quite a large wall.

Roubini and Other Doomsayers Will Be Proven Wrong

Nice thoughts but just the section on world currency is tough. The chinese manipulate their currency so forcefully that how could you trust the value of one the whole world uses??
Too many conflicting players. Geithner's plan does nothing more then bail out Goldman Saks, JPM and other greedy players sending a bad signal to the worlds investors. (and think about the example it teaches our children). Shame

3 Reasons I Think a Bull Market Rally Is Imminent

The trendline here is irrefutable. The dow and s & p continue to set lower lows and lower highs.
9650 day of obama's election
9050 day of inauguration
8300 on this run??
We still have NOT tested the true low in 2002 or 7250. We will, be patient.

The Worst Is Likely Behind Us

I think you should look further into market history. The dow went nowhere from 1965-1983. During that time the real return was a negative 6%. During that time they didn't have 65 Trillion in CDS's sitting out there. No subprime problems. Banks continue to hoard cash and are not lending. Huge baby boomer population moving into retirement. Add the huge amount of overhead supply now in the stock market and you get set up for a long period or continuous selling into rallies.
Yes we will see rallies, and the smart patient investor will continue to buy at lower levels and sell into these rallies. however I do not see a strong return to growth in the stock market until 2017 at the earliest.

Meredith Whitney Threatens Severe Deflation For Your Portfolio

very onesided commentary. FYI, although Citi held their value in the 50 range for 3 years it was due to management manipulating their losses to hide this disaster. Looking at the potential losses in credit default swaps would make her predictions seem tame. How about putting the blame where it lays, with the CEO's that overlooked all this credit mess and collected HUGE bonus's while putting the average american home in default risk!!