David Fischer's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/164255/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-693159 693159 Prices have been indeed slammed by foreclosures, and now prices will rise off of this artificial bottom, just like a parabolic sell off in the stock market, prices are artificially squashed due to too many bank owned properties. If you look at the cost of building one of these homes right now, they are possibly 80 k undervalued to current building prices. No new homes will be built until prices of these homes climb from here. Smart real estate investors are buying up these homes like crazy, now is the time, buy buy buy. 70 k homes renting for 800 per month, are you kidding me? Even if rents dropped to 550 per month, they would still be worth buying.]]> Sun, 27 Sep 2009 12:55:48 -0400 Prices have been indeed slammed by foreclosures, and now prices will rise off of this artificial bottom, just like a parabolic sell off in the stock market, prices are artificially squashed due to too many bank owned properties. If you look at the cost of building one of these homes right now, they are possibly 80 k undervalued to current building prices. No new homes will be built until prices of these homes climb from here. Smart real estate investors are buying up these homes like crazy, now is the time, buy buy buy. 70 k homes renting for 800 per month, are you kidding me? Even if rents dropped to 550 per month, they would still be worth buying.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162680-canada-the-industrialized-market-for-the-coming-decade?source=feed#comment-693149 693149 Sun, 27 Sep 2009 12:44:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-339960 339960
Usually after bubbles of that magnitude, the overshoot the other way can be huge. One only has to look at the Naz or any other bubble that has occurred. Real estate in Phoenix, Florida and especially Las Vegas have a ways to go still to the downside.

Too many clowns get stomped on trying to call bottoms. If you cant handle a 10% drop in prices from here or more, then why try to catch a falling knife.]]> Sun, 28 Dec 2008 17:28:59 -0500
Usually after bubbles of that magnitude, the overshoot the other way can be huge. One only has to look at the Naz or any other bubble that has occurred. Real estate in Phoenix, Florida and especially Las Vegas have a ways to go still to the downside.

Too many clowns get stomped on trying to call bottoms. If you cant handle a 10% drop in prices from here or more, then why try to catch a falling knife.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112084-just-say-no-to-commercial-real-estate-beggars?source=feed#comment-339267 339267
The first step in backing loans is one thing, looks harmless. But the next obvious results that would come later when these companies owe billions and need to be taken back is the phase which would enlighten investors to what is really going on. The day the loans are called if things gets worse is a day of reveoution. When there is no clear line in the sand between what the government owns and can take from you and what you think is yours.

Capitalism has a downside which is recession/depression, this needs to be undertaken, but the government wants votes, so all those senators give in. But that only delays the recession for years to come, as savvy investors stay on the sidelines unwilling to buy unless values reflect reality in valuations.

Most of these reits should be gone as their models of payouts are rediculous. These company strategies only work when times are good and asset values continue to go up, but not during pullbacks in values.

And this crisis is a crisis because knowone has any money any more, so it is warranted. Such a rediculous notion that is somehow an anomoly due to some quasi event, and not real. It is real, all asset values are plummeting, so don't loan. That is the motto of banks, wait it out, stay afloat until this is over.

The government didn't save housing, and its' a good thing, look at the tsunami of refi's to come with no takers. The same is just beginning in reits. The model does not work, they need to be purged and values reset.]]> Sat, 27 Dec 2008 10:50:00 -0500
The first step in backing loans is one thing, looks harmless. But the next obvious results that would come later when these companies owe billions and need to be taken back is the phase which would enlighten investors to what is really going on. The day the loans are called if things gets worse is a day of reveoution. When there is no clear line in the sand between what the government owns and can take from you and what you think is yours.

Capitalism has a downside which is recession/depression, this needs to be undertaken, but the government wants votes, so all those senators give in. But that only delays the recession for years to come, as savvy investors stay on the sidelines unwilling to buy unless values reflect reality in valuations.

Most of these reits should be gone as their models of payouts are rediculous. These company strategies only work when times are good and asset values continue to go up, but not during pullbacks in values.

And this crisis is a crisis because knowone has any money any more, so it is warranted. Such a rediculous notion that is somehow an anomoly due to some quasi event, and not real. It is real, all asset values are plummeting, so don't loan. That is the motto of banks, wait it out, stay afloat until this is over.

The government didn't save housing, and its' a good thing, look at the tsunami of refi's to come with no takers. The same is just beginning in reits. The model does not work, they need to be purged and values reset.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68667-how-to-trade-this-bear-market-barron-s?source=feed#comment-127120 127120 We are not even close. The game is only in the 3 rd inning. Too much trust was put in the current system, that the old sayings of paying cash, etc, are coming back to haunt those who trusted Wall street and the fed in this creative pyrmid scheme. This debt bubble won't be solved with more debt unfortunately. So unlike 2000, this one will have to be slow and painful. No superman cape will help the damage done here.]]> Sun, 16 Mar 2008 11:14:41 -0400 We are not even close. The game is only in the 3 rd inning. Too much trust was put in the current system, that the old sayings of paying cash, etc, are coming back to haunt those who trusted Wall street and the fed in this creative pyrmid scheme. This debt bubble won't be solved with more debt unfortunately. So unlike 2000, this one will have to be slow and painful. No superman cape will help the damage done here.]]>