maverick

Attention Gold Bugs: Hyperinflation or Deflation?

Gold doesn't default, and it won't go to zero either. 5,000 years of history says so. We'll see deflation for a while, but does anyone really believe they can sell enough Treasuries to cover the bailouts? No way. They will have to print as well. And that actually does debtors a favor and punishes those that loaned recklessly. If the debtor can remain employed, he can pay back the predatory lender with devalued dollars. We are seeing deflation from demand destruction, but inflation will take over when they finally get the banks to stop using the bailouts to clean their books and actually lend. Not for cars and houses, but the short-term letters of credit that cover imports. Worst Buy and Detroit are in trouble, but people still want bananas. Gold may indeed go lower, but anyone holding none is just plain foolish. Read the GLD prospectus and you won't touch it with a ten foot pole. Their gold is uninsured. They won't guarantee the purity of the bars. The operator of their depository may not even be bonded. And who operates GLD? The same thieves who got us into this mess. CEF is far safer.

Bust, Bail, Repeat: The U.S. Enters into an Ever-Worsening Cycle

Why are there so many articles here with blatant typographical errors? Surely one can take the time to proof read their own arguments.

Platinum, Palladium Set to Skyrocket

PTM is an ETN, not an ETF.

Ethanol Is Oversold: Three Bounce Stocks - Barron's

Ethanol contains about 1/3 less energy than gasoline, it is impossible for your mileage to be greater on 90% ethanol. Grab any chemistry book. These companies are not profitable, that's why so many are being mothballed, closing, or being canceled, some substantially into construction. Just sell the shares before they are worthless. If you force me, I'll open my book and give you the exact energy content numbers. You didn't believe those cold fusion guys, did you?

Ethanol Is Oversold: Three Bounce Stocks - Barron's

First of all, these companies are NOT profitable. Most are losing money, nobody does better than break even, all hoping the price of corn will drop. Well, it won't. It is in fact headed higher, and a wet Spring in the midwest suggests a lot higher. Much of the corn has to be replanted, and for those that do, the yield won't be very good. Many will replant, but not with corn, they'll switch to soy. There probably aren't any shares left to borrow, but these stocks are headed for bankruptcy.

Iraqi Oil Reserves Claimed to be Enormous

Can you say "Three Days of the Condor"?

Considering Disaster

Gordon, do you have a link to a story?

Increasing Ethanol Demand and the Likely Price Implications for Corn

Acres planted isn't an accurate indicator when you don't know what seed was used. Each year, more of the GM seeds, with higher yields, are planted. You could plant less acres with better seed and end up with a bigger crop. Throw in the weather variable and it's not even worth speculating yet.

Gold’s 'Grand' Illusion

If things get that bad it won't be the people with the food in control, it will be those who have guns and ammunition.

After Bear Bail-Out, Commodities Bust: Is the Worst Over?

Ag is benefitting from the earth's population finally growing to match it's ability to grow food, which created the perfect storm by coinciding with peak oil and the credit crisis. People may change their mind about gold, but they won't change their mind about eating three meals a day.

Is $3.25 Gas Helping Harley Davidson?

There is no Harley that gets 70 mpg in typical use. Even the smallest Sportster would have be driven at a steady speed at the lowest speed recommended for fifth gear, probably something like 45-50 mph where air drag (which rises exponentially with velocity) isn't yet dramatic. The big bikes probably get 35-40 mpg in everyday use, and the Sportsters probably get 40-50 mpg in everyday use. All that shaking is energy being wasted. The previous comments about discretionary spending are dead-on, plus Harley has a much bigger problem looming. Their new water-cooled engine has not been widely accepted by it's customers, and not just because of it's high cost. The hog image is mainly dependent upon the sound from the (now intentionally) improperly balanced crankshaft configuration, but appearance isn't far behind. The customers prefer the appearance of the old, air/oil cooled engines. But those engines must be assembled with a more sloppy piston clearance to avoid siezing in hot weather, and that makes passing ever-rising emissions regulations difficult. Harley may not be able to sell air/oil-cooled engines at some point, and their sales will collapse. Catalytic converters can be added, and even direct-fuel injection, but these will drive prices dramatically higher. Plus they break from tradition as well in terms of technology and appearance, creating additional marketing troubles.