jimbomo

Home Prices Fall 11.4% in January: A Chance to Hit Bottom?

I wonder if we will ever see a real bottom or merely sideways movement with a slow drift downward (like Japan experienced). One reason is because of garbage like this mortgage broker's ad for FHA loans:

--FHA Mortgages - For New Home Purchases and Refinances

--FHA Raises Loan Amounts! Now even more loans qualify.

--FHA mortgages, which are insured by the Federal Housing Administration, are a helpful tool for people who might not qualify for conventional mortgage programs. They offer:

* Low down payment requirements, mortgage insurance and closing costs
* Cash-out refinances up to 95%
* Easy credit qualifying for people who have poor credit or lack a traditional credit history
* Past bankruptcies can still apply
* Help for people with low-to-moderate incomes

--Programs:

Buying your First Home
FHA might be just what you need. Your down payment can be as low as 3% of the purchase price, and most of your closing costs and fees can be included in the loan.

The mortgage broker claims he gets 3 out of 4 applications approved. This is the kind of crap that started all this. The FHA is setting people up to fail a few years down the road.
EOM

Durable Goods Orders: Not as Bad as They Seem?

You make a good point and I believe we would have seen more excitement from the market if the results had been "marketed" this way. In fact, earlier this week the NAR said that sales of existing homes were up from the last month, which they were, but still down significantly from last year's same month results. But the market went up.

Personally, I think investors should be smart enough to interpret the data each way and I believe they did. The NAR data looks like the reversal of a downtrend but the durable goods data looks like a continuation of a downtrend.
Also, I'm assuming the durable goods data is raw numbers, not adjusted for inflation, and therefore maybe just flat YOY.
Jim
___________
My opinion is worth what you paid for it.

The End of the Bear Market?

I hope you're right but I'm skeptical of any analysis that does not consider the underlying driver of our economy - consumers. This type of "Wall Street" view frustrates me because I see so many of my fellow citizens in dire financial straits. Their debt load is too high and their house is no longer an ATM. So, their only solution is to tighten their belts or default and start over. Either way their free spending days are over. EOM