Mark Moran

UPS: Market Bellwether at Fire-Sale Price

To believe that UPS is a good long-term buy here, you have to believe that oil is near a peak. If oil stabilizes or falls, UPS could rally; if oil spikes yet further, UPS will at best be dead money and likely will continue to fall. Thus far, Congress seems to believe that the only thing needed to fix the oil crisis is to rein in the speculators, which is as laughable as believing that the Fannie/Freddie/banking crisis can be fixed by reining in the short sellers. Until we have a feasible plan for increasing the supply of oil to world market's, I won't touch a single stock whose fortunes are closely tied to the price of oil.