Egg

Why I'm (Cautiously) Optimistic About the Future

I, for one, do NOT believe we will be better off in 20 years than we are today.

We have been living above our means (debt/deficit) for way too long and yet we still continue to live above our means. Eventually the day of reckoning will come and the credit card bill (debt) will come due which will force us to live below our means for a long time. The standard of living will be down in real terms for decades.

Don't delude yourself into thinking otherwise.

Cramer's Mad Money - 5 Mistakes Amateur Investors Make (7/31/09)

He forgot mistake # 6:

"Amateurs listen to my Mad Money show. A big no, no, no. Turn me off. Do it. NOW. Never take advice from a man who blows a horn while picking momentum stocks."

Dow Theory Points to New Cyclical Bull Market

Oh great...after a 40% + bull market since March the Dow Theory finally says it's time to buy now.

I'd be so lost without that theory.

No Exit for Bernanke

Well said....(as unfortunate as that is for us.)

But still, well said.

Can a Market Crash Save Us from Hyperinflation?

Ok, what about next year's bonds? And the next year's after that? And so on and so on?

The falling stock market last year which gave us such low rates also gave us a 2T dollar deficit. If the market falls again like it did last year, the deficit next year will be LARGER than 2T which would make hyperinflation more likely...not less likely.

No matter what happens (save the miracle of lower gov't spending) rates are going to eventually go up.

Can Rising Stock Markets Serve as a Confirmation of a Crashing Economy?

Well said.

The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It)

Prediction 11: None of the Above (Someone has to say it)

What the Hedge Funds' Bad September Could Mean for Markets

What would those September #s have looked like if the market didn't have the end of quarter paint the tape rally on Tuesday?

Obama Is Bad for the Economy - Barron's

George Bush and the Republicans are completely to blame for allowing the United States to face the possible election of a quasi-socialist Obama this fall.

And that statement above is coming from a Republican (me) who thinks Bush's fiscal policy over the last 8 years has been a complete disaster. He put the country on a credit card for his two terms and eventually those bills come due. It's as if the Republicans never heard of the word balanced budget. No, they just spend, spend, spend.

Time To Abandon Stocks?

I too like thinking contrarian, but one major problem with your article is that in 1979 the stock market had been in a bear market since 1966...today we have been in one for less than a year. There hasn't even been a full calendar down year in this bear market.

An old adage I'll never forget is that bear markets don't really end until you have high interest rates and high inflation. We do have inflation (unofficially) but definitely not high interest rates, so I think the real contrarian buying oppurtunity will arise sometime between 2010-2012.

Good News: Consumer Confidence Falls to 26-Year Low

One problem I still see with WallStreet's prevailing belief that the bottom is in, is that historically speaking bear markets end with high inflation and high interest rates.

Both those conditions were present in the 1982 and 1990 periods. Today, not so high of rates (to use an understatement.)

I have a strong feeling that over the next four years, we are going to see much higher interests along with higher inflation, and the Obama/McCain presidency is going to be compared to the Carter admin...and sometime between 2010-2012 will present a better longterm buying oppurtunity. Until then, sell all rallies. Especially stocks that don't have large international exposure.