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  • Parsing Qihoo 360's Q2 FY2014 Results [View article]
    Zacks and other outlets report earnings missed estimates by 0.20 at 0.31 vs. 0.51.

    That's a big miss. With different numbers being reported, it's hard to know the truth. It could be the expenses are high for the growth that they show and money managers selling to have cash to get into the Alibaba IPO.

    Would Alibaba consider investing/ buying Qihoo to compete more with Baidu?
    Sep 2 12:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Price-Sensitive Are Amazon.com's Customers? A Tale Of Two Tablets [View article]
    I have been thinking short since it fell from $400, but I am questioning what you have asked - why short AMZN, when there is DATA, FEYE, SCTY, TSLA, MNKD, DDD, BID, and so on.

    What makes it the best short - I may say the best approach is like Paulo is doing with SHLD, enter then exit.

    It popped on the hype of a new intro and even popped on Thursday on its release and then it fell Friday, not as far, maybe due to options expiry.

    I would suggest to short at 324 with a stop at 328, and looking for a break of 319 which may take it to low 300s. On a percentage basis, this is like shorting a $32.5 and looking for $30. Then $20, but in this market, there is no way it gets to $20 quickly.

    Opportunity cost would suggest to find greener fields elsewhere.
    Jun 23 01:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Neuralstem NSI-189 Abstract Teases At Potential Greatness [View article]
    Great article. Good entry point here.
    May 28 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enphase: Strong Story, Strong Growth And Decent Valuation Make For Substantial Upside [View article]
    Nice article. ENPH looks like a buy with target to $12.5 in next year.
    May 14 12:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Acadia Pharmaceuticals: 4 Different Insiders Have Sold Shares This Month [View article]
    Markus,
    Please help me understand your stop loss point.

    With the stock at 19, you suggest to short with a target of 13. But with a stop loss of $32. The risk reward is $6 profit and $13 losses.

    In my chart view, 21-22 has been support since last fall (more than 6 months). That should be resistance on this rally. Thus, 22.5 would be my stop loss.

    PnF would give a new buy signal at 26. This would negate the PnF sell signal - this could also be a stop loss level.
    Apr 20 11:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Natural Gas On This Run Up [View article]
    Hello Growfast,

    It's a few days before April 15.

    From Jan 27 closing prices, when we began making our comments.

    UNG closed 1/27 at 23.37.
    DGAZ closed at 5.39.
    UGAZ closed at 28.57.

    On 4/10 close,
    UNG sits at 25.79
    DGAZ at 3.04
    UGAZ at 27.64

    UNG is up 10.355%. It may be near time to short UNG if it can't hit above 27.89 highs in February. It's a bullish looking chart as of today.

    UGAZ is a 3x ETF, so we could expect it to be up 30% or so, but it's not a long term instrument, due to the contango I had mentioned.
    UGAZ is actually down 3.26%.

    DGAZ is down 43.6% and would be expected to be down 30%.

    In the long term, the 3x ETFs will both underperform their respective indexes.
    Apr 10 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GrubHub IPO Will Reward Long-Term Investors [View article]
    GRUB sounds a little like Priceline. They led to $1.3B in food sales and have revenue of $130M. Priceline's revenue early on was a small number but they facilitated all the larger travel dollar numbers.

    Initially, there were Travelocity, Orbitz, Priceline and others - many still exist. Some are valuable and some are not.

    130M revenue and a few million income -- is worth 78M shares x $40 = $3B.

    It may be a great business with heady management. It may become a fantastic stock. It will likely always be viewed as overvalued and keep investors at bay. With small share available, it is likely to rise due to that.
    Apr 6 01:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Soon To Blow Through $20 [View article]
    I will concur with this prediction with a date. It will have reached above $20 by July 4th, based on the trendline over the past 15 months.

    It rises about 5% per month on average. Based on this 5% per month, it should double every 15 months and in 5 years, we will be looking at about $300. JK.
    Mar 27 03:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Acadia Pharmaceuticals [View article]
    Jason, is there any news expected at the conference next week? PR announced today.

    Stock is down under $23, below your $25 target for re-entry, and below where Baker Brothers entered in the money raised at $28.5.
    Mar 26 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The $127 Billion Market Asteroid [View article]
    From the top in 2000 to bottom in 2002, margin debt decreased approximately $100B. From the top in 2007 to bottom in 2009, margin debt decreased approximately $130B.

    A small correction will not drop margin debt by $100B - more in the $20-30B range.
    Mar 26 11:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The $127 Billion Market Asteroid [View article]
    Paulo,
    While I agree that sentiment has been frothy bullish and KING's IPO today has not gone well, there could be concern that Ali Baba's IPO will mark a top in the market.

    But 127 billion which includes $100B due to margin debt from a small correction does not make sense to me. We have already seen more than 1% day drops since late January and the market has recovered. With US stock market cap near $18 trillion. A 1% drop is $180B. If the market drops 3% and half of the margin debt holders happen to be in the volatile stocks that dropped, they would painfully sell and make the 3% become 4%.

    I don't expect any sudden drops, rather a longer topping out process thru to later this fall. Then, there may be more concern on rates rising, where economy and employment is and have a typical October fall and bottoming.
    Mar 26 11:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Natural Gas On This Run Up [View article]
    Randy,
    Thanks for pointing out that options are not available on the 3x funds.

    I have often seen that contango effect with 3x ETFs, so I suspected it would be the case here. I think you are agreeing that there is slippage, but it will be far outweighed by the 3x gain. This may be the case, for learning purposes, let's come back to this in April, as you suggest. Thanks.
    Jan 27 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Natural Gas On This Run Up [View article]
    QTR, nice article.

    Going long on DGAZ - means you have to be right on gas prices coming back down, but also suffers from being a 3x ETF. It's a good daytrading tool, but not as good long term tracking. Would there be a contango effect?

    In that case, is it better to buy long term puts on UGAZ, which would suffer from contango as well as go down as gas prices go down? If it hits 37-40 this next week or two, the target would be back to 15 range by late summer.
    Jan 26 11:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn Returns From Vacation With Gusto [View article]
    Another negative result is his investment in RIG (Transocean).
    Jan 23 01:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look Back At Biotech Short Picks [View article]
    A loss with KERX.
    A loss with VNDA on approval.
    A gain with SRPT on delay.
    Nov 12 09:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
31 Comments
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