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  • Acadia Pharmaceuticals: 4 Different Insiders Have Sold Shares This Month [View article]
    Markus,
    Please help me understand your stop loss point.

    With the stock at 19, you suggest to short with a target of 13. But with a stop loss of $32. The risk reward is $6 profit and $13 losses.

    In my chart view, 21-22 has been support since last fall (more than 6 months). That should be resistance on this rally. Thus, 22.5 would be my stop loss.

    PnF would give a new buy signal at 26. This would negate the PnF sell signal - this could also be a stop loss level.
    Apr 20 11:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Natural Gas On This Run Up [View article]
    Hello Growfast,

    It's a few days before April 15.

    From Jan 27 closing prices, when we began making our comments.

    UNG closed 1/27 at 23.37.
    DGAZ closed at 5.39.
    UGAZ closed at 28.57.

    On 4/10 close,
    UNG sits at 25.79
    DGAZ at 3.04
    UGAZ at 27.64

    UNG is up 10.355%. It may be near time to short UNG if it can't hit above 27.89 highs in February. It's a bullish looking chart as of today.

    UGAZ is a 3x ETF, so we could expect it to be up 30% or so, but it's not a long term instrument, due to the contango I had mentioned.
    UGAZ is actually down 3.26%.

    DGAZ is down 43.6% and would be expected to be down 30%.

    In the long term, the 3x ETFs will both underperform their respective indexes.
    Apr 10 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GrubHub IPO Will Reward Long-Term Investors [View article]
    GRUB sounds a little like Priceline. They led to $1.3B in food sales and have revenue of $130M. Priceline's revenue early on was a small number but they facilitated all the larger travel dollar numbers.

    Initially, there were Travelocity, Orbitz, Priceline and others - many still exist. Some are valuable and some are not.

    130M revenue and a few million income -- is worth 78M shares x $40 = $3B.

    It may be a great business with heady management. It may become a fantastic stock. It will likely always be viewed as overvalued and keep investors at bay. With small share available, it is likely to rise due to that.
    Apr 6 01:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Soon To Blow Through $20 [View article]
    I will concur with this prediction with a date. It will have reached above $20 by July 4th, based on the trendline over the past 15 months.

    It rises about 5% per month on average. Based on this 5% per month, it should double every 15 months and in 5 years, we will be looking at about $300. JK.
    Mar 27 03:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Acadia Pharmaceuticals [View article]
    Jason, is there any news expected at the conference next week? PR announced today.

    Stock is down under $23, below your $25 target for re-entry, and below where Baker Brothers entered in the money raised at $28.5.
    Mar 26 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The $127 Billion Market Asteroid [View article]
    From the top in 2000 to bottom in 2002, margin debt decreased approximately $100B. From the top in 2007 to bottom in 2009, margin debt decreased approximately $130B.

    A small correction will not drop margin debt by $100B - more in the $20-30B range.
    Mar 26 11:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The $127 Billion Market Asteroid [View article]
    Paulo,
    While I agree that sentiment has been frothy bullish and KING's IPO today has not gone well, there could be concern that Ali Baba's IPO will mark a top in the market.

    But 127 billion which includes $100B due to margin debt from a small correction does not make sense to me. We have already seen more than 1% day drops since late January and the market has recovered. With US stock market cap near $18 trillion. A 1% drop is $180B. If the market drops 3% and half of the margin debt holders happen to be in the volatile stocks that dropped, they would painfully sell and make the 3% become 4%.

    I don't expect any sudden drops, rather a longer topping out process thru to later this fall. Then, there may be more concern on rates rising, where economy and employment is and have a typical October fall and bottoming.
    Mar 26 11:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Natural Gas On This Run Up [View article]
    Randy,
    Thanks for pointing out that options are not available on the 3x funds.

    I have often seen that contango effect with 3x ETFs, so I suspected it would be the case here. I think you are agreeing that there is slippage, but it will be far outweighed by the 3x gain. This may be the case, for learning purposes, let's come back to this in April, as you suggest. Thanks.
    Jan 27 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Natural Gas On This Run Up [View article]
    QTR, nice article.

    Going long on DGAZ - means you have to be right on gas prices coming back down, but also suffers from being a 3x ETF. It's a good daytrading tool, but not as good long term tracking. Would there be a contango effect?

    In that case, is it better to buy long term puts on UGAZ, which would suffer from contango as well as go down as gas prices go down? If it hits 37-40 this next week or two, the target would be back to 15 range by late summer.
    Jan 26 11:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn Returns From Vacation With Gusto [View article]
    Another negative result is his investment in RIG (Transocean).
    Jan 23 01:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look Back At Biotech Short Picks [View article]
    A loss with KERX.
    A loss with VNDA on approval.
    A gain with SRPT on delay.
    Nov 12 09:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Apple Have An Achilles' Heel? [View article]
    You didn't mention Google as an Achilles Heel - and not that they directly make the phone. But they are the direct OS competitor. Google Glass is their entry into unique/ higher quality experience --- compare to iWatch. These are 2 future direction entries to the companies as the phones will be even more than they are today, as they become more wearable computing with communication of all kinds. I don't see this is fatal but just limiting Apple's upside to maybe 700 again.
    Sep 9 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday's Top Biotech Losers Infinity And Synta And Other Top Sells By Fund Managers [View article]
    Thanks - I didn't catch the 'guru' vs. 'mega'. That makes sense now.
    Jun 9 10:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday's Top Biotech Losers Infinity And Synta And Other Top Sells By Fund Managers [View article]
    Can you help to explain how >>>>>>

    ARNA --- This article says it was Sold, Guru Rank of 1, and Value of $1M, in this article, but in yesterday's article titled, "Aegerion and other Top...", Bought, Guru Rank of 3.6 and Value of $668M.

    Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA), that is a biotech developer of oral drugs for cardiovascular, central nervous system, inflammatory, and metabolic diseases, in which guru funds in consensus sold a net 0.17 million shares in Q1/2013 from their 0.32 million share position in the prior quarter.

    Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA) is a biotech developer of oral drugs for cardiovascular, central nervous system, inflammatory, and metabolic diseases, in which mega funds added a net 6.61 million shares in Q1/2013 to their 68.65 million share prior quarter position in the company.
    Jun 5 12:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 P/E Ratio [View article]
    It would be helpful to see the average PE going back to 1990 vs. 1998.

    Saying the average is 19.8, when you include the Millenium turn, skews the number higher.
    May 17 01:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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