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  • Why Biotech Will Bottom In October  [View article]
    Bret, appreciate your columns and analysis. If a bear market in biotech is coming to an end, and small caps get pulled down faster and harder than the large caps, if you anticipate a rough 2016 (today's column), do you expect a commensurate rebound in the small cap biotechs?
    And if yes, other than the shotgun approach, is there representative small cap name or ETF like IBB which will be liquid enough and give the outstretched returns if a return to biotech bull market happens?
    Oct 16, 2015. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will We Hold It Wednesday - Strong Bounce Edition  [View article]
    I like Phil's articles and didn't find the call spread or short put to be too complicated.

    I do believe a short put that's $30 out of the money has much lower risk than a few $ out of the money. And the call spread gets you an entry $15+ under today's cost. With the short put, it's more than that.

    Low risk, high reward.

    The simpler short put seems more risky to me and Phil's examples at 2 strikes low and high, support that.

    I don't have any fancy options software and I don't trade daily, so some math that explains how these are equal would be appreciated, perhaps in a chart if possible.

    Interesting discussion and would love to learn and understand more.

    Last thing, the cost to enter the trade for me when talking about tens of thousands of dollars, I see a single short put costing $30 and the complex 3 legged perhaps costing $90. This doesn't seem a large difference unless you are trading in and out of it, 50 times in a year (once a week) - then that's $3K.
    Sep 10, 2015. 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Qihoo 360's Drop On Gaming-Related Fears Is Laughable  [View article]
    Think of market of Cisco and 3Com, then Cisco and Juniper. #1 and #2 in market. Initially, market awards the #2 a higher P/S ratio. Later, it falls lower.

    Just because QIHU has 1/2 the users of BIDU doesn't mean it deserves 1/2 the market cap.

    The chart of QIHU is clearly in a downtrend and further breakdown this week. While this could be the final shakeout, it could be precursor for fall into 30s. BIDU at slightl below 200day moving average. BABA back at its opening day IPO lows. QIHU at 52 week lows.

    They could all break lower or this could be the opportunity for re-entry. I'd rather own the other two until volatility lessens.
    Feb 21, 2015. 01:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can Benefit From Revenue Fluctuations In The Big Data Market  [View article]
    Thanks for the explanation. This is very helpful.
    Nov 10, 2014. 07:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can Benefit From Revenue Fluctuations In The Big Data Market  [View article]
    Hello Lior,
    Excellent article and data to backup your premise. What is your recommended action plan for investing with this knowledge? Do you short the top in Jan/Feb 2015 with the great earnings results on the backs of the top revenue? or buy now to sell on the news of those results? From the list of 8 companies, can you rank them from leader to also-ran... Thanks.
    Nov 6, 2014. 06:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Parsing Qihoo 360's Q2 FY2014 Results  [View article]
    Zacks and other outlets report earnings missed estimates by 0.20 at 0.31 vs. 0.51.

    That's a big miss. With different numbers being reported, it's hard to know the truth. It could be the expenses are high for the growth that they show and money managers selling to have cash to get into the Alibaba IPO.

    Would Alibaba consider investing/ buying Qihoo to compete more with Baidu?
    Sep 2, 2014. 12:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Price-Sensitive Are's Customers? A Tale Of Two Tablets  [View article]
    I have been thinking short since it fell from $400, but I am questioning what you have asked - why short AMZN, when there is DATA, FEYE, SCTY, TSLA, MNKD, DDD, BID, and so on.

    What makes it the best short - I may say the best approach is like Paulo is doing with SHLD, enter then exit.

    It popped on the hype of a new intro and even popped on Thursday on its release and then it fell Friday, not as far, maybe due to options expiry.

    I would suggest to short at 324 with a stop at 328, and looking for a break of 319 which may take it to low 300s. On a percentage basis, this is like shorting a $32.5 and looking for $30. Then $20, but in this market, there is no way it gets to $20 quickly.

    Opportunity cost would suggest to find greener fields elsewhere.
    Jun 23, 2014. 01:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Neuralstem NSI-189 Abstract Teases At Potential Greatness  [View article]
    Great article. Good entry point here.
    May 28, 2014. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enphase: Strong Story, Strong Growth And Decent Valuation Make For Substantial Upside  [View article]
    Nice article. ENPH looks like a buy with target to $12.5 in next year.
    May 14, 2014. 12:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Acadia Pharmaceuticals: 4 Different Insiders Have Sold Shares This Month  [View article]
    Please help me understand your stop loss point.

    With the stock at 19, you suggest to short with a target of 13. But with a stop loss of $32. The risk reward is $6 profit and $13 losses.

    In my chart view, 21-22 has been support since last fall (more than 6 months). That should be resistance on this rally. Thus, 22.5 would be my stop loss.

    PnF would give a new buy signal at 26. This would negate the PnF sell signal - this could also be a stop loss level.
    Apr 20, 2014. 11:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Natural Gas On This Run Up  [View article]
    Hello Growfast,

    It's a few days before April 15.

    From Jan 27 closing prices, when we began making our comments.

    UNG closed 1/27 at 23.37.
    DGAZ closed at 5.39.
    UGAZ closed at 28.57.

    On 4/10 close,
    UNG sits at 25.79
    DGAZ at 3.04
    UGAZ at 27.64

    UNG is up 10.355%. It may be near time to short UNG if it can't hit above 27.89 highs in February. It's a bullish looking chart as of today.

    UGAZ is a 3x ETF, so we could expect it to be up 30% or so, but it's not a long term instrument, due to the contango I had mentioned.
    UGAZ is actually down 3.26%.

    DGAZ is down 43.6% and would be expected to be down 30%.

    In the long term, the 3x ETFs will both underperform their respective indexes.
    Apr 10, 2014. 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GrubHub IPO Will Reward Long-Term Investors  [View article]
    GRUB sounds a little like Priceline. They led to $1.3B in food sales and have revenue of $130M. Priceline's revenue early on was a small number but they facilitated all the larger travel dollar numbers.

    Initially, there were Travelocity, Orbitz, Priceline and others - many still exist. Some are valuable and some are not.

    130M revenue and a few million income -- is worth 78M shares x $40 = $3B.

    It may be a great business with heady management. It may become a fantastic stock. It will likely always be viewed as overvalued and keep investors at bay. With small share available, it is likely to rise due to that.
    Apr 6, 2014. 01:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Soon To Blow Through $20  [View article]
    I will concur with this prediction with a date. It will have reached above $20 by July 4th, based on the trendline over the past 15 months.

    It rises about 5% per month on average. Based on this 5% per month, it should double every 15 months and in 5 years, we will be looking at about $300. JK.
    Mar 27, 2014. 03:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Acadia Pharmaceuticals  [View article]
    Jason, is there any news expected at the conference next week? PR announced today.

    Stock is down under $23, below your $25 target for re-entry, and below where Baker Brothers entered in the money raised at $28.5.
    Mar 26, 2014. 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The $127 Billion Market Asteroid  [View article]
    From the top in 2000 to bottom in 2002, margin debt decreased approximately $100B. From the top in 2007 to bottom in 2009, margin debt decreased approximately $130B.

    A small correction will not drop margin debt by $100B - more in the $20-30B range.
    Mar 26, 2014. 11:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment