Moral Hazards Amok's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/164659/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/154901-peak-oil-for-dummies?source=feed#comment-621907 621907
Let me also point out that our natural gas reserves in the US contain more twice the energy contained in the oil fields of Saudi Arabia. It's very easy to start building trucks and cars that run on NG, and indeed we will soon start making that transition. Epiphany, folks, it’s very easy to transition to a NG transportation economy and we’re beginning to do so. Problem solved for several more generations.

A much better article would have been about why peak oil is a myth, complete with much better references. But then again, no doubt our young author probably has a political agenda.]]> Sun, 09 Aug 2009 11:32:40 -0400
Let me also point out that our natural gas reserves in the US contain more twice the energy contained in the oil fields of Saudi Arabia. It's very easy to start building trucks and cars that run on NG, and indeed we will soon start making that transition. Epiphany, folks, it’s very easy to transition to a NG transportation economy and we’re beginning to do so. Problem solved for several more generations.

A much better article would have been about why peak oil is a myth, complete with much better references. But then again, no doubt our young author probably has a political agenda.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138108-tough-times-for-netflix-barron-s?source=feed#comment-508952 508952 ______________________

"BTW, the 'saving gas' argument is a bit bogus: nobody is expected to hop into the car for a 5-mile expedition to the nearest kiosk. The whole idea behind a kiosk is to snag the consumer while (s)he's already out of the house ... that's why they're located in malls and retail stores..."]]> Mon, 18 May 2009 19:55:02 -0400 ______________________

"BTW, the 'saving gas' argument is a bit bogus: nobody is expected to hop into the car for a 5-mile expedition to the nearest kiosk. The whole idea behind a kiosk is to snag the consumer while (s)he's already out of the house ... that's why they're located in malls and retail stores..."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138108-tough-times-for-netflix-barron-s?source=feed#comment-508187 508187
Not a significant threat to Netflix, imho.]]> Mon, 18 May 2009 10:36:33 -0400
Not a significant threat to Netflix, imho.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136509-the-ultimate-commodities-etf-guide?source=feed#comment-497205 497205
Pull it up on a weekly chart and notice the extremely high trading volume of this last week’s breakout. This train is just now leaving the station and still has much farther to run. Good luck all.]]> Sat, 09 May 2009 21:55:47 -0400
Pull it up on a weekly chart and notice the extremely high trading volume of this last week’s breakout. This train is just now leaving the station and still has much farther to run. Good luck all.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/410801-scibby/3576-dndn-is-a-7-stock-beware?source=feed#comment-497179 497179
"saynothingunlessgood" has easily debunked Scibby's poor attempt at FUD, with his reply noted below.)

"You are pretty unconvincing to an educated professional if he/she can read financials for themselves. Try to reasonable/realistic!

That is, $93mllion is long term debt, $26 million is current and they have $110 in short term investments (read CASH!) Oh, and that was as at 31.03.09 BEFORE they raised $190 million in equity that now can be used to TOTALLY REPAY ALL DEBT leaving the company TOATLLY DEBT FREE and with over ANOTHER US $100 million of cash to operate for at least a year at a burn rate of two times previous rate!

Got this? Hope so. So that we don't have to read foolishness. If you have some real info., please post."]]> Sat, 09 May 2009 21:30:36 -0400
"saynothingunlessgood" has easily debunked Scibby's poor attempt at FUD, with his reply noted below.)

"You are pretty unconvincing to an educated professional if he/she can read financials for themselves. Try to reasonable/realistic!

That is, $93mllion is long term debt, $26 million is current and they have $110 in short term investments (read CASH!) Oh, and that was as at 31.03.09 BEFORE they raised $190 million in equity that now can be used to TOTALLY REPAY ALL DEBT leaving the company TOATLLY DEBT FREE and with over ANOTHER US $100 million of cash to operate for at least a year at a burn rate of two times previous rate!

Got this? Hope so. So that we don't have to read foolishness. If you have some real info., please post."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/135250-why-did-dendreon-execs-cash-out-on-friday?source=feed#comment-493177 493177
"Plus, did you see the vaccine administration procedure??? It is very cumbersome!! One needs to take out patients cancer cells, modify it with provenge and then re-inject back to the patients............this is too cumbersome for a 4 months survival extension......."

A couple of trips to a specialist is to too cumbersome? Would you rather these poor souls simply take Taxotere, whose side effects include hair loss, anemia, low levels of white blood cells, blood in the stool, severe mouth sores, and severe vomiting and/or diarrhea?

Also, 4 months of life extension is only the beginning with this technology because down the road Dendreon, or someone will find a way to lever this type of technology into much greater lengths of survival, and probably even cancer cures in many cases.

For the shorts who are trying to make a buck here by killing this technology consider this; most of you at sometime during your lifetime will watch someone you care about or even love die horribly from cancer. Provenge is a technology that just might have prevented that. Was a couple of dollars worth it?




]]> Wed, 06 May 2009 23:43:57 -0400
"Plus, did you see the vaccine administration procedure??? It is very cumbersome!! One needs to take out patients cancer cells, modify it with provenge and then re-inject back to the patients............this is too cumbersome for a 4 months survival extension......."

A couple of trips to a specialist is to too cumbersome? Would you rather these poor souls simply take Taxotere, whose side effects include hair loss, anemia, low levels of white blood cells, blood in the stool, severe mouth sores, and severe vomiting and/or diarrhea?

Also, 4 months of life extension is only the beginning with this technology because down the road Dendreon, or someone will find a way to lever this type of technology into much greater lengths of survival, and probably even cancer cures in many cases.

For the shorts who are trying to make a buck here by killing this technology consider this; most of you at sometime during your lifetime will watch someone you care about or even love die horribly from cancer. Provenge is a technology that just might have prevented that. Was a couple of dollars worth it?




]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123334-a-game-of-confidence?source=feed#comment-408263 408263
Loss of confidence? Well, that would be the stock market continuing its collapse after realizing that Obama and his team of socialists are actually amplifying the problems with their failed Marxist policies and incompetent handling of this mess. Now THAT’S lack of confidence!
]]> Sun, 01 Mar 2009 15:32:52 -0500
Loss of confidence? Well, that would be the stock market continuing its collapse after realizing that Obama and his team of socialists are actually amplifying the problems with their failed Marxist policies and incompetent handling of this mess. Now THAT’S lack of confidence!
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115255-the-bull-run-begins-this-week?source=feed#comment-361469 361469
"One of the great orators of our times will inspire the world this week."

Let's see...

Dow 7,949.09 -332.13 -4.01%
Nasdaq 1,440.86 -88.47 -5.78%
S&P 500 805.22 -44.90 -5.28%

What was it that Cramer called him after today's mini crash, oh yes... "Babble Oboma." "I'm just telling it like it is", he said.

Bump. Let's keep this article popular so we can keep making fun of it.




]]> Tue, 20 Jan 2009 22:21:20 -0500
"One of the great orators of our times will inspire the world this week."

Let's see...

Dow 7,949.09 -332.13 -4.01%
Nasdaq 1,440.86 -88.47 -5.78%
S&P 500 805.22 -44.90 -5.28%

What was it that Cramer called him after today's mini crash, oh yes... "Babble Oboma." "I'm just telling it like it is", he said.

Bump. Let's keep this article popular so we can keep making fun of it.




]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115055-10-interesting-stocks-under-10?source=feed#comment-358674 358674 Sat, 17 Jan 2009 21:06:44 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/107393-the-dow-s-lost-decade?source=feed#comment-313002 313002
AAPL is a great company with great potential, yet it’s my opinion that it’s also great short and will be unless it breaks above $90 and stays there.

Pull it up on a candlestick chart and notice the incredible support it had around $87. Yet on Thursday, (Nov 20) it broke down through that support very convincingly with high volume. That strong support is now strong resistance.

Friday, it set an even lower low but did not make it back to Thursday’s high. It also deviated from the general market in that the $SPX was up 6.3% but AAPL was up only 2.6%.

Fundamentally, this consumer stock hasn’t yet been punished enough to reflect market realities, imho. The great credit superbubble has burst (as I’ve been pointing out for months) and iPods, iPhones, and music downloads at .89(?) are not a necessity that today’s shell-shocked and credit contracting consumer really needs to have.

This stock has some support around $70, but I expect it to break through that without much effort.

I’ll go long when we start to crawl out of this financial vortex.

Disclosure; purchased April puts on AAPL last week.
]]> Sun, 23 Nov 2008 13:49:07 -0500
AAPL is a great company with great potential, yet it’s my opinion that it’s also great short and will be unless it breaks above $90 and stays there.

Pull it up on a candlestick chart and notice the incredible support it had around $87. Yet on Thursday, (Nov 20) it broke down through that support very convincingly with high volume. That strong support is now strong resistance.

Friday, it set an even lower low but did not make it back to Thursday’s high. It also deviated from the general market in that the $SPX was up 6.3% but AAPL was up only 2.6%.

Fundamentally, this consumer stock hasn’t yet been punished enough to reflect market realities, imho. The great credit superbubble has burst (as I’ve been pointing out for months) and iPods, iPhones, and music downloads at .89(?) are not a necessity that today’s shell-shocked and credit contracting consumer really needs to have.

This stock has some support around $70, but I expect it to break through that without much effort.

I’ll go long when we start to crawl out of this financial vortex.

Disclosure; purchased April puts on AAPL last week.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102692-three-areas-of-opportunity-for-the-bold?source=feed#comment-293848 293848
If this current real estate crash, which we’re probably only half way through, hasn’t dramatically driven home the fallacies in that line of reasoning, then nothing I can possibly say here will.

And yes I know that $1300 is more than $930, but that's not cash flow positive btw. After expenses and the inevitable repairs, you need a ratio that's closer to 2:1.
gl]]> Wed, 29 Oct 2008 19:03:22 -0400
If this current real estate crash, which we’re probably only half way through, hasn’t dramatically driven home the fallacies in that line of reasoning, then nothing I can possibly say here will.

And yes I know that $1300 is more than $930, but that's not cash flow positive btw. After expenses and the inevitable repairs, you need a ratio that's closer to 2:1.
gl]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102632-five-signs-of-a-market-bottom?source=feed#comment-293840 293840
4. Ok, so there’s one prominent perma-bear who flipped. We still have too many people who are now bullish looking for value plays (traps), and way too many others now calling this a bottom.

The bottom will be in when talking heads and bloggers have stopped calling for a bottom and it will arrive quietly.]]> Wed, 29 Oct 2008 18:43:51 -0400
4. Ok, so there’s one prominent perma-bear who flipped. We still have too many people who are now bullish looking for value plays (traps), and way too many others now calling this a bottom.

The bottom will be in when talking heads and bloggers have stopped calling for a bottom and it will arrive quietly.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101720-impending-inflation-the-global-new-deal-all-but-guarantees-it?source=feed#comment-290345 290345
However, in most ways the article actually argues in favor of deflation. Here are a couple of its more salient quotes:

“The wavelike movement affecting the economic system, the recurrence of periods of boom which are followed by periods of depression, is the unavoidable outcome of the attempts, repeated again and again, to lower the gross market rate of interest by means of credit expansion. There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion.” Ludwig von Mises – 1949

And this one…

“However, banks' limited equity capital wouldn't allow expanding credit and money supply any further, whatever the amount of excess reserves. Perhaps even more important, a contraction of the means of payment, accompanied by a sudden stagnation of credit supply, can be expected to exert downward pressure on money prices, production and employment.”

At this point in the crisis, the government will attempt to rescue the banking system so lending can begin again. The first strategy is injecting peoples' tax money into banks. The second strategy is buying banks' risky assets, and the third is monetizing banks' risky assets.

We are now, or soon will be, doing all three, but here’s the key, credit will still continue to collapse. Even after the Fed’s efforts, banks and finance companies will not be willing to lend so extremely promiscuously again. As previously pointed out, lending standards will be much tighter in the years ahead.

Also, at least for a few years, individuals and business will not wish to borrow nearly as much again as jobs are being lost and prices for everything is in freefall. As JasonC so diplomatically puts it…

“No, prices are not going to trend up after a brief scare.

Earth to inflationary brainstorm clueless people, please write on a blackboard 500 times, "the demand for money is not a constant".”]]> Sat, 25 Oct 2008 14:58:13 -0400
However, in most ways the article actually argues in favor of deflation. Here are a couple of its more salient quotes:

“The wavelike movement affecting the economic system, the recurrence of periods of boom which are followed by periods of depression, is the unavoidable outcome of the attempts, repeated again and again, to lower the gross market rate of interest by means of credit expansion. There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion.” Ludwig von Mises – 1949

And this one…

“However, banks' limited equity capital wouldn't allow expanding credit and money supply any further, whatever the amount of excess reserves. Perhaps even more important, a contraction of the means of payment, accompanied by a sudden stagnation of credit supply, can be expected to exert downward pressure on money prices, production and employment.”

At this point in the crisis, the government will attempt to rescue the banking system so lending can begin again. The first strategy is injecting peoples' tax money into banks. The second strategy is buying banks' risky assets, and the third is monetizing banks' risky assets.

We are now, or soon will be, doing all three, but here’s the key, credit will still continue to collapse. Even after the Fed’s efforts, banks and finance companies will not be willing to lend so extremely promiscuously again. As previously pointed out, lending standards will be much tighter in the years ahead.

Also, at least for a few years, individuals and business will not wish to borrow nearly as much again as jobs are being lost and prices for everything is in freefall. As JasonC so diplomatically puts it…

“No, prices are not going to trend up after a brief scare.

Earth to inflationary brainstorm clueless people, please write on a blackboard 500 times, "the demand for money is not a constant".”]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101732-deflationary-depression-where-do-we-go-from-here?source=feed#comment-289989 289989
DBA,DBC,DIG,GLD,VTI,
HYG,ITB,URG,IYR,IYF,
MOO,OIL,UNG,URE,
HSG,XLY,XME,SLV
]]> Fri, 24 Oct 2008 20:07:21 -0400
DBA,DBC,DIG,GLD,VTI,
HYG,ITB,URG,IYR,IYF,
MOO,OIL,UNG,URE,
HSG,XLY,XME,SLV
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101732-deflationary-depression-where-do-we-go-from-here?source=feed#comment-289986 289986
"the central banks' inability to raise rates to combat inflationary pressure,"

Go back to stockcharts and create a new list, add the following then view:

DBA,DBC,DIG,GLD,HYG,IT...

What inflationary pressures?]]> Fri, 24 Oct 2008 20:03:42 -0400
"the central banks' inability to raise rates to combat inflationary pressure,"

Go back to stockcharts and create a new list, add the following then view:

DBA,DBC,DIG,GLD,HYG,IT...

What inflationary pressures?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101804-five-behaviors-for-making-money-now?source=feed#comment-289949 289949
]]> Fri, 24 Oct 2008 18:14:37 -0400
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101720-impending-inflation-the-global-new-deal-all-but-guarantees-it?source=feed#comment-289628 289628
The US government isn’t going to simply print money and throw it out the windows of helicopters. As you point out in the article, the government expends the money supply by going into debt, but the much larger great credit super-bubble has popped. Will they issue enough bonds to balance the $20 trillion that has been lost? What about the next $20 trillion after that? I’m not saying that this is the end of the world, but I just don’t see hyper-inflation.

Four factors are in motion that will make the next several trillion in losses pretty much baked in.

1. Most asset prices are collapsing, not just real estate. Oil, precious metals, agriculture… all. Count ‘em and stack ‘em, nothing is safe and the tape doesn’t lie.
2. Incomes all over the globe are falling, jobs are being lost, and Joe the plumber is reacting by popping handfuls of Xanax and tightly hording his savings (that he doesn’t have).
3. Credit is much harder to obtain and will stay that way. Yes, the current credit freeze is thawing but still credit standards will be much stricter in the years ahead than they were during the last 15.
4. The world's economy is caught in several deflationary feedback loops due points 1 through 3 above. These dynamics all feed off of each other and they are even accelerating.

Also, will a New Deal necessarily be inflationary? It wasn’t during great depression 1, why would it be now?

Thank you for making both sides of the argument. However I think you made a much better case for deflation rather than inflation because it’s hard to see how government’s efforts can stop the super cyclone of credit and asset destruction.]]> Fri, 24 Oct 2008 11:53:56 -0400
The US government isn’t going to simply print money and throw it out the windows of helicopters. As you point out in the article, the government expends the money supply by going into debt, but the much larger great credit super-bubble has popped. Will they issue enough bonds to balance the $20 trillion that has been lost? What about the next $20 trillion after that? I’m not saying that this is the end of the world, but I just don’t see hyper-inflation.

Four factors are in motion that will make the next several trillion in losses pretty much baked in.

1. Most asset prices are collapsing, not just real estate. Oil, precious metals, agriculture… all. Count ‘em and stack ‘em, nothing is safe and the tape doesn’t lie.
2. Incomes all over the globe are falling, jobs are being lost, and Joe the plumber is reacting by popping handfuls of Xanax and tightly hording his savings (that he doesn’t have).
3. Credit is much harder to obtain and will stay that way. Yes, the current credit freeze is thawing but still credit standards will be much stricter in the years ahead than they were during the last 15.
4. The world's economy is caught in several deflationary feedback loops due points 1 through 3 above. These dynamics all feed off of each other and they are even accelerating.

Also, will a New Deal necessarily be inflationary? It wasn’t during great depression 1, why would it be now?

Thank you for making both sides of the argument. However I think you made a much better case for deflation rather than inflation because it’s hard to see how government’s efforts can stop the super cyclone of credit and asset destruction.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101561-rare-batman-pattern-forming-in-the-vix?source=feed#comment-289132 289132
BAM!

DOUBLE-WHAM! ]]> Thu, 23 Oct 2008 17:29:31 -0400
BAM!

DOUBLE-WHAM! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101539-the-physics-of-money?source=feed#comment-289113 289113
The problem with this current environment is that I don’t see much money in motion lately. How is it getting into the system???

Yes, banks may have unprecedented amounts of liquidity thanks to the Fed and Treasury, but who are they lending it to? They’ve greatly tightened their lending standards for both consumers and businesses and they’re still too scared to lend and fewer entities and individuals now meet their new standards.

Hedge funds are desperately deleveraging and liquidating their portfolios. Customer redemptions are killing them. How many will be gone by this time next year? Most?

Assets prices are in a free-fall, especially in real estate. How many trillions of dollars have now left that particular asset class? How many trillions more will leave it in the next couple of years?

Commodity values have collapsed with no floor yet in sight.

With the economy being caught is several nasty feedback loops, layoffs are accelerating and the consumer has rolled into a fetal position, praying that they will still have a job in the next 12 months. How many cars and houses are they currently buying?

Contrary to popular belief, the Fed doesn’t print bails of $100 bills and toss it out of the windows of helicopters. So I guess I’m asking the hyper-inflation proponents (Jim) and gold bugs, how exactly is inflation going to work itself into the system anytime in the foreseeable future?

Anyone?]]> Thu, 23 Oct 2008 17:07:18 -0400
The problem with this current environment is that I don’t see much money in motion lately. How is it getting into the system???

Yes, banks may have unprecedented amounts of liquidity thanks to the Fed and Treasury, but who are they lending it to? They’ve greatly tightened their lending standards for both consumers and businesses and they’re still too scared to lend and fewer entities and individuals now meet their new standards.

Hedge funds are desperately deleveraging and liquidating their portfolios. Customer redemptions are killing them. How many will be gone by this time next year? Most?

Assets prices are in a free-fall, especially in real estate. How many trillions of dollars have now left that particular asset class? How many trillions more will leave it in the next couple of years?

Commodity values have collapsed with no floor yet in sight.

With the economy being caught is several nasty feedback loops, layoffs are accelerating and the consumer has rolled into a fetal position, praying that they will still have a job in the next 12 months. How many cars and houses are they currently buying?

Contrary to popular belief, the Fed doesn’t print bails of $100 bills and toss it out of the windows of helicopters. So I guess I’m asking the hyper-inflation proponents (Jim) and gold bugs, how exactly is inflation going to work itself into the system anytime in the foreseeable future?

Anyone?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101363-how-have-absolute-return-funds-held-up?source=feed#comment-288946 288946
Jim, you're probably one of the biggest proponents stating that high inflation will spill over into the general economy due to the Fed and Treasury’s dumping hundreds, or even a couple trillion into the money supply. This you believe will greatly drive up the prices of commodities and agriculture and cause overall inflation, even hyperinflation. However, I’m having trouble seeing that.

To many of us it looks like we’re in the early states of the of the great credit bubble collapsing, and the consequences of that will be many more trillions of dollars of capital actually leaving the system. On top of that we have asset prices collapsing, credit becoming more expensive, and massive general downsizing of jobs and corporations coming our way in the next few quarters.

Given those conditions, how is the Treasury’s money going to find its way into the system and overcome the (in my opinion) much larger deflationary collapse taking place?
Thx.]]> Thu, 23 Oct 2008 14:03:29 -0400
Jim, you're probably one of the biggest proponents stating that high inflation will spill over into the general economy due to the Fed and Treasury’s dumping hundreds, or even a couple trillion into the money supply. This you believe will greatly drive up the prices of commodities and agriculture and cause overall inflation, even hyperinflation. However, I’m having trouble seeing that.

To many of us it looks like we’re in the early states of the of the great credit bubble collapsing, and the consequences of that will be many more trillions of dollars of capital actually leaving the system. On top of that we have asset prices collapsing, credit becoming more expensive, and massive general downsizing of jobs and corporations coming our way in the next few quarters.

Given those conditions, how is the Treasury’s money going to find its way into the system and overcome the (in my opinion) much larger deflationary collapse taking place?
Thx.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99723-are-more-big-falls-ahead?source=feed#comment-281665 281665
Can’t you just hear the drum beat of clueless commentators stating that the market in undervalued, there’s an incredible amount of cash sitting on the sidelines just waiting to get in, that the Fed’s printing presses are running red hot and so we’re now set up for the biggest bull run ever, etc, etc, …

All this should make for quite a significant bounce. After it sucks in the masses and tops out, then go short.]]> Mon, 13 Oct 2008 18:48:06 -0400
Can’t you just hear the drum beat of clueless commentators stating that the market in undervalued, there’s an incredible amount of cash sitting on the sidelines just waiting to get in, that the Fed’s printing presses are running red hot and so we’re now set up for the biggest bull run ever, etc, etc, …

All this should make for quite a significant bounce. After it sucks in the masses and tops out, then go short.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99588-the-crash-of-2008?source=feed#comment-280916 280916
3. imho, we have had far too few meltdowns of this severity to reasonably game where this current one will end and a new bull leg will begin, or how high the rally will go. I would think that we would need at least a couple hundred meltdowns to gather statically meaningful trends. Too many people from Cramer to Roubini compare this crisis to 1987 or 1929. Today’s crisis is neither because important dynamics are so different. Sorry to use the overused cliché, but we really are in uncharted waters. Throw away the book on those past episodes when it comes to predicting the current market. They don't apply, imho.

4. It would have been nice to know what specific measures the author was referring to. VIX, Put/Call ratio, magazine covers, newsletter authors, men’s beards? Not all of these indicators are yet at pessimistic extremes. Also, how do we quantify “maximum pessimism”? I would be willing to bet that at the bottom of every economic crisis the population believed that things indeed could get much worse, and guess what, they were right. So how do we know when we’re really at a bottom?

That being said, my technical indicators suggest that we may indeed at a short-term bottom and ready for a good bounce, so late Friday I stuck my toe in the water and bought calls in ABK and IDEV. But I used specific (albeit rule of thumb) quantifiable indicators. We shall see.]]> Sun, 12 Oct 2008 21:54:58 -0400
3. imho, we have had far too few meltdowns of this severity to reasonably game where this current one will end and a new bull leg will begin, or how high the rally will go. I would think that we would need at least a couple hundred meltdowns to gather statically meaningful trends. Too many people from Cramer to Roubini compare this crisis to 1987 or 1929. Today’s crisis is neither because important dynamics are so different. Sorry to use the overused cliché, but we really are in uncharted waters. Throw away the book on those past episodes when it comes to predicting the current market. They don't apply, imho.

4. It would have been nice to know what specific measures the author was referring to. VIX, Put/Call ratio, magazine covers, newsletter authors, men’s beards? Not all of these indicators are yet at pessimistic extremes. Also, how do we quantify “maximum pessimism”? I would be willing to bet that at the bottom of every economic crisis the population believed that things indeed could get much worse, and guess what, they were right. So how do we know when we’re really at a bottom?

That being said, my technical indicators suggest that we may indeed at a short-term bottom and ready for a good bounce, so late Friday I stuck my toe in the water and bought calls in ABK and IDEV. But I used specific (albeit rule of thumb) quantifiable indicators. We shall see.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99451-what-would-jim-rogers-do?source=feed#comment-280644 280644
For people like Jim, I’ve yet to see any of them even acknowledge the other side of the monetary dynamic, which is that the great credit superbubble has burst. How can we have hyperinflation when trillions of dollars in asset classes are being destroyed and trillions more in credit is being unwound? Yes, there currently is a ridicules amount of liquidity, but even so ,who’s lending, who’s borrowing, and how many businesses are even expanding? Not many. I’ve yet to see people like Jim even acknowledge that this counter-dynamic even exists.]]> Sun, 12 Oct 2008 14:00:09 -0400
For people like Jim, I’ve yet to see any of them even acknowledge the other side of the monetary dynamic, which is that the great credit superbubble has burst. How can we have hyperinflation when trillions of dollars in asset classes are being destroyed and trillions more in credit is being unwound? Yes, there currently is a ridicules amount of liquidity, but even so ,who’s lending, who’s borrowing, and how many businesses are even expanding? Not many. I’ve yet to see people like Jim even acknowledge that this counter-dynamic even exists.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99438-the-devastating-week-that-was?source=feed#comment-279841 279841
But it’s much more fun just to do a populist tribal dance around the camp fire with our spirit masks and spears and blame all this on Jim Cramer.]]> Sat, 11 Oct 2008 12:28:07 -0400
But it’s much more fun just to do a populist tribal dance around the camp fire with our spirit masks and spears and blame all this on Jim Cramer.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98267-three-stocks-we-re-long-with-high-conviction?source=feed#comment-272957 272957
Yes, it’s certainly possible that Delia could go up to $11 or even $30 in the next 12 months, but you’ve got to learn to stop thinking like that if you’re going to be a long term successful trader. If I go to my favorite casino, the Bellagio, and put $5000 down at the roulette wheel’s number 12, it’s also possible that 30 seconds later I will have won $175,000. But is it a good investment decision?

Like, Jerland, I don’t necessarily share a great admiration for Warren Buffet. Haven’t you ever noticed that he divulges the companies he’s invested in *after* he’s accumulated shares? Now in this article we learn of the author’s significant position in Delia, again *after* he has quietly accumulated his shares. I wish him the best of luck and do appreciate that he's written some excellent articles, but maybe he’s trying to stack the odds in his favor here.

What I said was honest, spoken from the heart, trying to help people, and coming form someone who absolutely has no financial axe grind in any of the companies mentioned. I could be wrong but I would not be an investor in any of them at this point in time.
]]> Fri, 03 Oct 2008 15:33:56 -0400
Yes, it’s certainly possible that Delia could go up to $11 or even $30 in the next 12 months, but you’ve got to learn to stop thinking like that if you’re going to be a long term successful trader. If I go to my favorite casino, the Bellagio, and put $5000 down at the roulette wheel’s number 12, it’s also possible that 30 seconds later I will have won $175,000. But is it a good investment decision?

Like, Jerland, I don’t necessarily share a great admiration for Warren Buffet. Haven’t you ever noticed that he divulges the companies he’s invested in *after* he’s accumulated shares? Now in this article we learn of the author’s significant position in Delia, again *after* he has quietly accumulated his shares. I wish him the best of luck and do appreciate that he's written some excellent articles, but maybe he’s trying to stack the odds in his favor here.

What I said was honest, spoken from the heart, trying to help people, and coming form someone who absolutely has no financial axe grind in any of the companies mentioned. I could be wrong but I would not be an investor in any of them at this point in time.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98267-three-stocks-we-re-long-with-high-conviction?source=feed#comment-272609 272609
My investment portfolio is up significantly for the year, so according to Mountain Fist I'm actually qualified to criticize this article. Let me start by saying that one crucial reason I’ve managed to stay ahead is by ignoring hype like this and selling into dangerous charts like these. Timing is everything.

Is it any wonder why the retail investor has thrown in the towel and given up? ]]> Fri, 03 Oct 2008 10:45:12 -0400
My investment portfolio is up significantly for the year, so according to Mountain Fist I'm actually qualified to criticize this article. Let me start by saying that one crucial reason I’ve managed to stay ahead is by ignoring hype like this and selling into dangerous charts like these. Timing is everything.

Is it any wonder why the retail investor has thrown in the towel and given up? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98323-think-of-these-as-short-term-troubles?source=feed#comment-272100 272100

Perhaps it’s because you’re just not understanding the situation. The great credit superbubble has burst.]]> Thu, 02 Oct 2008 17:23:02 -0400

Perhaps it’s because you’re just not understanding the situation. The great credit superbubble has burst.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94638-just-how-much-can-the-u-s-government-guarantee?source=feed#comment-249695 249695 Tue, 09 Sep 2008 15:56:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94183-don-t-believe-the-gold-bears-hype?source=feed#comment-246959 246959
Let’s put all this in perspective. The economy of this planet is in the early stages of the great credit supercycle collapse and the melt-down in the precious metals derivatives is only one if its manifestations.

Large financials and hedge funds, who are getting weekly margin calls, are being forced to de-lever their positions and restore their balance sheets, so they are liquidating their positions. As a result, along with the global economic slowdown, sector after sector is de-leveraging; housing, banking, energy, agriculture, and yes, even the shiny precious metals.

Back in January we wondered if our credit crisis would bring us hyperinflation or deflation. The answer is in; deflation. Credit is contracting, not expanding, as credit spreads are now high and the M3 money supply has collapsed from a over 17% a few months ago to under 3% today. The fed’s efforts of containing the credit collapse are limited as they are simply pushing on a string.

However, the retail consumer/investor who is still living off of their own leveraged debt of mortgages and credit cards, doesn’t yet get it, but they will. Soon, they too will get their margin calls as they get cut off from credit. In my opinion, the shiny coins they are buying today a premium they will be selling back again for much less in a year or two from now, just like they did in the 1980s.

Of course, Iran is always the wildcard.]]> Sat, 06 Sep 2008 12:33:04 -0400
Let’s put all this in perspective. The economy of this planet is in the early stages of the great credit supercycle collapse and the melt-down in the precious metals derivatives is only one if its manifestations.

Large financials and hedge funds, who are getting weekly margin calls, are being forced to de-lever their positions and restore their balance sheets, so they are liquidating their positions. As a result, along with the global economic slowdown, sector after sector is de-leveraging; housing, banking, energy, agriculture, and yes, even the shiny precious metals.

Back in January we wondered if our credit crisis would bring us hyperinflation or deflation. The answer is in; deflation. Credit is contracting, not expanding, as credit spreads are now high and the M3 money supply has collapsed from a over 17% a few months ago to under 3% today. The fed’s efforts of containing the credit collapse are limited as they are simply pushing on a string.

However, the retail consumer/investor who is still living off of their own leveraged debt of mortgages and credit cards, doesn’t yet get it, but they will. Soon, they too will get their margin calls as they get cut off from credit. In my opinion, the shiny coins they are buying today a premium they will be selling back again for much less in a year or two from now, just like they did in the 1980s.

Of course, Iran is always the wildcard.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93772-real-estate-retail-etfs-better-than-you-think?source=feed#comment-245078 245078
(I’m trying really hard to avoid mentioning the falling knife cliché.)]]> Wed, 03 Sep 2008 23:58:14 -0400
(I’m trying really hard to avoid mentioning the falling knife cliché.)]]>