ezrasfund's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/164754/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/118730-chart-value-of-u-s-stocks-as-a-percent-of-gnp?source=feed#comment-376731 376731
What percentage of all US businesses were public companies?

]]> Thu, 05 Feb 2009 09:30:06 -0500
What percentage of all US businesses were public companies?

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115525-the-scariest-chart-ever?source=feed#comment-363159 363159
We are 5% of the world's people producing over 20% of the world's manufactured goods. This fact is indisputable.

Not towels, and shoes, and toys...

Airplanes and computers and media content and cars ( OK, Toyotas and BMW's) and lots of other things that are made with low labor content and very high productivity.

I agree with the point of the original chart and the notion that the US economy and the world economy are in for very rough times due to the deleveraging of the financial system...

But this argument doesn't need the above falsehood to be true.

Our annual exports are about $1.15 Trillion, about the same as China's $1.2Trillion and much more per capita. It's the imports and consumption that are our problem.

This misinformation is a perfect example of the notion that if something is repeated enough times people think it is true.

We've got serious problems, but the fog of this falsehood won't help solve them.


On Jan 20 05:27 PM JohnAl wrote:

> "Debt as a percentage of GDP ended up at %120 in 1946, which is about
> where we'll be when the bailout is complete.
>
> The world in 1946 looked shaky, but things turned out fine, as it
> happened. "
>
> Yeah? We made stuff to sell to the rest of the world in 1946. What
> do we sell them now?]]> Thu, 22 Jan 2009 12:50:48 -0500
We are 5% of the world's people producing over 20% of the world's manufactured goods. This fact is indisputable.

Not towels, and shoes, and toys...

Airplanes and computers and media content and cars ( OK, Toyotas and BMW's) and lots of other things that are made with low labor content and very high productivity.

I agree with the point of the original chart and the notion that the US economy and the world economy are in for very rough times due to the deleveraging of the financial system...

But this argument doesn't need the above falsehood to be true.

Our annual exports are about $1.15 Trillion, about the same as China's $1.2Trillion and much more per capita. It's the imports and consumption that are our problem.

This misinformation is a perfect example of the notion that if something is repeated enough times people think it is true.

We've got serious problems, but the fog of this falsehood won't help solve them.


On Jan 20 05:27 PM JohnAl wrote:

> "Debt as a percentage of GDP ended up at %120 in 1946, which is about
> where we'll be when the bailout is complete.
>
> The world in 1946 looked shaky, but things turned out fine, as it
> happened. "
>
> Yeah? We made stuff to sell to the rest of the world in 1946. What
> do we sell them now?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115910-are-uncle-sam-s-creditors-heading-towards-the-exits?source=feed#comment-363134 363134

On Jan 22 10:37 AM Chris B wrote:

> If foreign investors stop buying treasuries, the government will
> resort to money-printing to fund itself. This would devalue the
> currency, so this possibility suggests that US and foreign investors
> should be diversifying out of the dollar.
>
> But what currency should we go into? The British pound is even worse
> off, and Willem Buiter has suggested that it could go the route of
> Iceland's currency. Both the Euro and the Yen seem unattractive
> due to debt/GDP ratios that are far beyond even the US's levels and
> demographic graying. The Canadian and Australian dollars seem to
> track commodity prices more than fiscal policy or obtainable yields,
> so you might as well be buying commodities. The Chinese yuan is
> issued by a communist export country that has an interest in keeping
> its value down. India has chronic inflation. Commodities such as
> precious metals and oil are volatile gambles on future inflationary
> sentiments, and don't really fit the definition of a safer investment
> than the USD as their fluctuations are far greater than the dollar's.
> What's left?]]> Thu, 22 Jan 2009 12:29:55 -0500

On Jan 22 10:37 AM Chris B wrote:

> If foreign investors stop buying treasuries, the government will
> resort to money-printing to fund itself. This would devalue the
> currency, so this possibility suggests that US and foreign investors
> should be diversifying out of the dollar.
>
> But what currency should we go into? The British pound is even worse
> off, and Willem Buiter has suggested that it could go the route of
> Iceland's currency. Both the Euro and the Yen seem unattractive
> due to debt/GDP ratios that are far beyond even the US's levels and
> demographic graying. The Canadian and Australian dollars seem to
> track commodity prices more than fiscal policy or obtainable yields,
> so you might as well be buying commodities. The Chinese yuan is
> issued by a communist export country that has an interest in keeping
> its value down. India has chronic inflation. Commodities such as
> precious metals and oil are volatile gambles on future inflationary
> sentiments, and don't really fit the definition of a safer investment
> than the USD as their fluctuations are far greater than the dollar's.
> What's left?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114302-60-minutes-on-oil-did-anyone-verify-anything?source=feed#comment-354034 354034
One factor that pushed up the price of oil was big money fleeing from real estate and other investments into the next big thing. Speculators and investors are always looking for the next hot market.]]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 23:54:59 -0500
One factor that pushed up the price of oil was big money fleeing from real estate and other investments into the next big thing. Speculators and investors are always looking for the next hot market.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111752-don-t-be-scammed-by-madoff-investor-sob-stories?source=feed#comment-335360 335360
There still seems to be a correlation. ]]> Sun, 21 Dec 2008 23:45:41 -0500
There still seems to be a correlation. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111655-the-deflation-scam?source=feed#comment-334627 334627
My question? To what extent did the increase in leverage by financial institutions (and everyone else) have the same effect as an increase in the money supply?

Can the increase in the money supply overcome the effect of this enormous deleveraging?


On Dec 19 10:38 PM austrian63 wrote:

> Good article. The correct definition of deflation however is a decrease
> in the money which results in a decrease in the general price level.
> The money supply is growing so there will be no long term sustained
> decrease in the general price level. As noted in your article, most
> of the products and services Americans buy on a daily basis are increasing
> in price. The only sustainable "deflation" that is here to stay
> is the value of the dollar. Dollars will become worth much less
> over the next few years.
> ]]> Sat, 20 Dec 2008 12:45:38 -0500
My question? To what extent did the increase in leverage by financial institutions (and everyone else) have the same effect as an increase in the money supply?

Can the increase in the money supply overcome the effect of this enormous deleveraging?


On Dec 19 10:38 PM austrian63 wrote:

> Good article. The correct definition of deflation however is a decrease
> in the money which results in a decrease in the general price level.
> The money supply is growing so there will be no long term sustained
> decrease in the general price level. As noted in your article, most
> of the products and services Americans buy on a daily basis are increasing
> in price. The only sustainable "deflation" that is here to stay
> is the value of the dollar. Dollars will become worth much less
> over the next few years.
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110309-a-new-bull-market-is-born?source=feed#comment-327702 327702
FA predicts long term trends.

Short term might well be up...

Long term will probably be down...

Longest term markets will rise, inflation will return, we'll all be dead.]]> Fri, 12 Dec 2008 14:35:41 -0500
FA predicts long term trends.

Short term might well be up...

Long term will probably be down...

Longest term markets will rise, inflation will return, we'll all be dead.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110450-let-s-hope-the-auto-bailout-has-failed-for-good?source=feed#comment-327162 327162
Please explain to me why this is a stupid idea!

Auto Workers Pension funds must have enough $$ to buy a significant portion, if not all, of the debt of F and GM at pennies on the dollar.

Covert those bonds into preferred shares, equity, what else (experts?) and relieve a good part of the financial pressure on these firms.

In short, surely the auto workers, with the value of their pension funds, must have enough equity to bailout their employers. Maybe they could own the companies!

All their eggs in one basket!? That's the life of a real entrepreneur. ]]> Fri, 12 Dec 2008 08:54:21 -0500
Please explain to me why this is a stupid idea!

Auto Workers Pension funds must have enough $$ to buy a significant portion, if not all, of the debt of F and GM at pennies on the dollar.

Covert those bonds into preferred shares, equity, what else (experts?) and relieve a good part of the financial pressure on these firms.

In short, surely the auto workers, with the value of their pension funds, must have enough equity to bailout their employers. Maybe they could own the companies!

All their eggs in one basket!? That's the life of a real entrepreneur. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110391-automaker-bailout-fails-this-is-not-good?source=feed#comment-327123 327123
Please explain to me why this is a stupid idea!

Auto Workers Pension funds must have enough $$ to buy a significant portion, if not all, of the debt of F and GM at pennies on the dollar.

Covert those bonds into preferred shares, equity, what else (experts?) and relieve a good part of the financial pressure on these firms.

In short, surely the auto workers, with the value of their pension funds, must have enough equity to bailout their employers. Maybe they could own the companies!

All their eggs in one basket!? That's the life of a real entrepreneur. ]]> Fri, 12 Dec 2008 08:24:49 -0500
Please explain to me why this is a stupid idea!

Auto Workers Pension funds must have enough $$ to buy a significant portion, if not all, of the debt of F and GM at pennies on the dollar.

Covert those bonds into preferred shares, equity, what else (experts?) and relieve a good part of the financial pressure on these firms.

In short, surely the auto workers, with the value of their pension funds, must have enough equity to bailout their employers. Maybe they could own the companies!

All their eggs in one basket!? That's the life of a real entrepreneur. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110062-playing-the-auto-bailout-with-yields-as-high-as-45?source=feed#comment-326918 326918
Please explain to me why this is a stupid idea!

Auto Workers Pension funds must have enough $$ to buy a significant portion, if not all, of the debt of F and GM at pennies on the dollar.

Covert those bonds into preferred shares, equity, what else (experts?) and relieve a good part of the financial pressure on these firms.

In short, surely the auto workers, with the value of their pension funds, must have enough equity to bailout their employers. Maybe they could own the companies!

All their eggs in one basket!? That's the life of a real entrepreneur.]]> Thu, 11 Dec 2008 23:03:19 -0500
Please explain to me why this is a stupid idea!

Auto Workers Pension funds must have enough $$ to buy a significant portion, if not all, of the debt of F and GM at pennies on the dollar.

Covert those bonds into preferred shares, equity, what else (experts?) and relieve a good part of the financial pressure on these firms.

In short, surely the auto workers, with the value of their pension funds, must have enough equity to bailout their employers. Maybe they could own the companies!

All their eggs in one basket!? That's the life of a real entrepreneur.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105948-friday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-305962 305962
EEM moved in a 17% range yesterday.

Could anything be a sign of greater uncertainty in the markets?

These values are about as certain as the values of CDOs and CDSs, and about as likely to fall off the cliff again.

If you were leveraged 20 to 1 (like our banker friends) you would have gone from rich to insolvent and back again in one afternoon.

Ask how is it possible?

Go back and look at a few normal decades. The only example is the black swan of Oct 1987 until you get to the great depression.

Lots of money made timing the bounce in 1932 and here's your chance again. Or is this more like 1930? Still a leg down to go?]]> Fri, 14 Nov 2008 09:32:41 -0500
EEM moved in a 17% range yesterday.

Could anything be a sign of greater uncertainty in the markets?

These values are about as certain as the values of CDOs and CDSs, and about as likely to fall off the cliff again.

If you were leveraged 20 to 1 (like our banker friends) you would have gone from rich to insolvent and back again in one afternoon.

Ask how is it possible?

Go back and look at a few normal decades. The only example is the black swan of Oct 1987 until you get to the great depression.

Lots of money made timing the bounce in 1932 and here's your chance again. Or is this more like 1930? Still a leg down to go?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95350-can-we-please-have-some-sanity-when-it-comes-to-taxes?source=feed#comment-254307 254307
Signs of the problem? Warren Buffett challenging any CEO to show that they pay taxes at a higher rate than their secretaries...no one spoke up.

Surgeons in NYC feeling like paupers next to their ne'er-do-well college chums who make 10 times more than they do (or is it 100 times?)]]> Sun, 14 Sep 2008 17:23:41 -0400
Signs of the problem? Warren Buffett challenging any CEO to show that they pay taxes at a higher rate than their secretaries...no one spoke up.

Surgeons in NYC feeling like paupers next to their ne'er-do-well college chums who make 10 times more than they do (or is it 100 times?)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94131-rent-vs-buy-datapoint-of-the-day?source=feed#comment-246228 246228 Fri, 05 Sep 2008 11:08:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85021-lehman-the-bottom-is-in?source=feed#comment-205915 205915
The corporate boardroom fatcats who stood behind LEH as a good value at $60 should be happy buy up the company at 80% off.

]]> Tue, 15 Jul 2008 10:05:57 -0400
The corporate boardroom fatcats who stood behind LEH as a good value at $60 should be happy buy up the company at 80% off.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84704-who-s-to-blame-for-indymac-s-failure?source=feed#comment-204692 204692 Sun, 13 Jul 2008 20:15:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84641-5-steps-for-saving-fannie?source=feed#comment-203069 203069

"move on a housing bill" which does what?

"weekend of phone calls to get on the same page"

"start to talk about a long term solution"

"ask the opinion of myriad figures"

"presidential candidates need to offer long term plans"

stick a fork in it?

"private profit, socialized risk" says it all...and they're not giving back that profit any time soon...just ask Mr. Raines et al.

]]> Fri, 11 Jul 2008 12:00:42 -0400

"move on a housing bill" which does what?

"weekend of phone calls to get on the same page"

"start to talk about a long term solution"

"ask the opinion of myriad figures"

"presidential candidates need to offer long term plans"

stick a fork in it?

"private profit, socialized risk" says it all...and they're not giving back that profit any time soon...just ask Mr. Raines et al.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84580-getting-out-of-today-s-bear-market?source=feed#comment-203037 203037
I think we agree on most of this...bearish...less manufacturing jobs in the US...middle class in deep trouble...

But we still manufacture more than anyone one the planet (measured in $ not lbs.)]]> Fri, 11 Jul 2008 11:41:34 -0400
I think we agree on most of this...bearish...less manufacturing jobs in the US...middle class in deep trouble...

But we still manufacture more than anyone one the planet (measured in $ not lbs.)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84580-getting-out-of-today-s-bear-market?source=feed#comment-202996 202996
I'm a bear on the US ecomomy today, but why do people keep repeating this falsehood?

We are 5% of the world's people making 20% of the world's manufactured goods in dollar terms. We don't make the stuff you buy at Walmart, we make airplanes and computers and cancer fighting drugs and lots of other stuff (including Toyotas and BMW's).
We make them with much less labor per dollar of goods produced than you can make a towel or a plastic toy. So many less people are employed in manufacturing, but they have the world's highest productivity. One person in a high tech automated factory can produce a lot more (in $ terms) than 100 people sitting at sewing machines.]]> Fri, 11 Jul 2008 11:04:47 -0400
I'm a bear on the US ecomomy today, but why do people keep repeating this falsehood?

We are 5% of the world's people making 20% of the world's manufactured goods in dollar terms. We don't make the stuff you buy at Walmart, we make airplanes and computers and cancer fighting drugs and lots of other stuff (including Toyotas and BMW's).
We make them with much less labor per dollar of goods produced than you can make a towel or a plastic toy. So many less people are employed in manufacturing, but they have the world's highest productivity. One person in a high tech automated factory can produce a lot more (in $ terms) than 100 people sitting at sewing machines.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84580-getting-out-of-today-s-bear-market?source=feed#comment-202950 202950 Fri, 11 Jul 2008 10:23:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84609-fear-of-higher-taxes-a-cause-of-sell-off?source=feed#comment-202938 202938
If I charge $1000 on may credit card instead of paying cash is that not money that will have to be paid? In the aggregate goverment spending and taxes will have come into balance. Will the "great deleveraging" ever extend past Fannie and Freddie all the way to the US Treasury? And will the US pay up or default? Finally the banks can't grow their way out of their leveraged positions. Will the US government be able to grow its' way out of high debt ratios forever? Including some auto company style legacy costs?

Good luck. "In the long run we'll all be dead," but does that include our government?]]> Fri, 11 Jul 2008 10:15:39 -0400
If I charge $1000 on may credit card instead of paying cash is that not money that will have to be paid? In the aggregate goverment spending and taxes will have come into balance. Will the "great deleveraging" ever extend past Fannie and Freddie all the way to the US Treasury? And will the US pay up or default? Finally the banks can't grow their way out of their leveraged positions. Will the US government be able to grow its' way out of high debt ratios forever? Including some auto company style legacy costs?

Good luck. "In the long run we'll all be dead," but does that include our government?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84580-getting-out-of-today-s-bear-market?source=feed#comment-202918 202918 Fri, 11 Jul 2008 10:00:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84347-thursday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-202092 202092 Thu, 10 Jul 2008 08:50:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82329-financial-forecasters-all-pointing-down?source=feed#comment-190856 190856 Mon, 23 Jun 2008 10:21:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78616-is-oil-a-bubble-part-one?source=feed#comment-172475 172475
Prices will increase until demand shows some elasticity. When a rise in price causes a drop in demand large enough to create a net drop in revenue prices will stop going up.

Of course the reaction is delayed, and we are still waiting for the demand side of the equation to react, but it is inevitable. Then comes the price correction.

Timing the inevitable can be a bit tricky. ]]> Fri, 23 May 2008 08:23:11 -0400
Prices will increase until demand shows some elasticity. When a rise in price causes a drop in demand large enough to create a net drop in revenue prices will stop going up.

Of course the reaction is delayed, and we are still waiting for the demand side of the equation to react, but it is inevitable. Then comes the price correction.

Timing the inevitable can be a bit tricky. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70270-the-credit-crunch-taking-personal-responsibility?source=feed#comment-132765 132765 Thu, 27 Mar 2008 22:44:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69477-main-street-sacrificed-to-the-gods-of-wall-street?source=feed#comment-129605 129605 Thu, 20 Mar 2008 22:20:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69477-main-street-sacrificed-to-the-gods-of-wall-street?source=feed#comment-129597 129597 Thu, 20 Mar 2008 22:00:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69437-the-credit-crisis-and-potential-shorts?source=feed#comment-129355 129355
How many times the real value of oil ( or gold or mortgages) that is being traded is represented by the value of the derivitives and futures contracts being traded? The liquidity bubble will be the last one to crash, and it too is a bubble.

ezrasfund]]> Thu, 20 Mar 2008 12:07:07 -0400
How many times the real value of oil ( or gold or mortgages) that is being traded is represented by the value of the derivitives and futures contracts being traded? The liquidity bubble will be the last one to crash, and it too is a bubble.

ezrasfund]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68624-the-industry-indicator-buy-when-the-market-sells?source=feed#comment-127697 127697
Most people sell when the stock market is at its bottom,

or

The stock market is at its bottom when most people sell.

Most investors buy at the top of the market,

or

The market is at its top when there is the most buying.

It cannot be any other way, which is why informed buy and hold strategies work best.]]> Mon, 17 Mar 2008 12:29:24 -0400
Most people sell when the stock market is at its bottom,

or

The stock market is at its bottom when most people sell.

Most investors buy at the top of the market,

or

The market is at its top when there is the most buying.

It cannot be any other way, which is why informed buy and hold strategies work best.]]>