ezrasfund

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

SPY moved in a 10.5% range yesterday.

EEM moved in a 17% range yesterday.

Could anything be a sign of greater uncertainty in the markets?

These values are about as certain as the values of CDOs and CDSs, and about as likely to fall off the cliff again.

If you were leveraged 20 to 1 (like our banker friends) you would have gone from rich to insolvent and back again in one afternoon.

Ask how is it possible?

Go back and look at a few normal decades. The only example is the black swan of Oct 1987 until you get to the great depression.

Lots of money made timing the bounce in 1932 and here's your chance again. Or is this more like 1930? Still a leg down to go?

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Better check your figures on SRS again! That was plus $12.36 yesterday or 13%.

Is Oil a Bubble? Part One

Supply and Demand 101....Just because you get a PhD, it doesn't mean you can forget the first day of school.

Prices will increase until demand shows some elasticity. When a rise in price causes a drop in demand large enough to create a net drop in revenue prices will stop going up.

Of course the reaction is delayed, and we are still waiting for the demand side of the equation to react, but it is inevitable. Then comes the price correction.

Timing the inevitable can be a bit tricky.