pooramerican

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

I am currently traveling in one of the "emerging markets" regions. I gotta tell ya, there is construction everywhere but many of which is unfinished. The interesting thing is that even though they are trying to sell, they are not slashing prices like we do. I guess they paid all cash.
every time I go to carrefour, which is a giant chain in EMEA I have to wait in long lines, shopping carts are stacked, the buying is relentless.

I am long SRS options, which I am loosing crap load on, today I picked up CEE.TO to play the gold breakout and the collapsing dollar. I am scared that whatever little savings I have will be wiped with vicious inflation. I am sitting in 95% cash with the cash being distributed 70% USD and 30% euro.
David,
Do you think it is time to go long DBC , DBA and MOO?
of all asset classes, food seem to be the cheapest.

Welcome to Decoupling 2.0: Any Validity This Time Around?

I am currently traveling in the middle east and I gotta tell ya, the consumers over here seem to be shopping like there is no tomorrow. I am not sure if it is seasonal or what, but every time I go to the mall it is full of people and the carts are full. I am pretty sure this kind of consumption is at least putting some brake pressure on deflation. I think it all comes down to the credit available and from what I am seeing it looks like credit is more available outside the US.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

David,
Don't the charts look bearish especially for USL and MOO?The volume on the up days is very weak

The Five 'M's of Picking Gold Mining Stocks

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader,
I too expect a pullback, how much the pullback will be will speak volumes of what is going on.
I am still in cash, when gold made its run, I hesitated to enter but I can't say I quite regret it. For a small fish like me, I think there are other things that are much cheaper than gold. After all, you can't eat or drink gold and you can't use it to hunt.If we get a melt down, not only gold will soar in terms of dollar but other things will too. The overall ratios are unlikely to change dramatically I think. With oil trading at 28 barrel/gold ounce, I think oil and wheat at whatever rate it is at today, I think those things are worth a look.
Today's rally could be the short term rally everyone has been expecting and waiting for, or possibly just a reaction to yesterday's sell off. There are always bounces along major lines. What matters is the follow through tomorrow

Hedge Fund Portfolio Tracking: Soros Fund Management (George Soros), Q4 2008

I bet you he gets a nice bath on BBY , MER and GenWorth Financial.
the other picks probably make up for the loss though. but he has a big tech holdings which I am not sure is going to perform that good this year

Gold Bubble Still Expanding - Canaccord

Saudi and middle eastern investors purchased $3 billion dollaris worth of gold lately.
December 2008: comex contracts settled by delivery was about 40%.
February 2009: Gold pushing higher, as British pound continue its slump.
My guess? Europeans money pockets and especially brittons are puchasing gold to preserve their wealth after fears of a crash ala iceland.
Most people around the world who have money and are exiting trades may direct a small percentage of their portfolio to gold, and so may central banks. Imagine what happens if people on regular basis directed 5-7% of their portfolios and savings to gold and silver.
I am waiting for a pullback as I unfrotunately believed gold will dive to $650 on deflation pressures

Deflation Risk Dipping As Stagflation Risk Rises

I don't see the deflation risk highly probably for several reason. First my understanding of deflation is a reduction in money supply or available credit. The symptoms manifest themselves as a prolonged reduction in the price of goods. Remember this, the prices are the symptoms not the cause.
We know available credit is tightening, but I am starting to see all the commercials about buying a house with 0 to little money down come back.
overall, there is still quite a bit of money available in the country, which means we are not at a depression deflation level yet. It will take employment to jump to high double digits before we start seeing chaotic deflation.
I also think there are certain factors that will play against a deflationary spiral to continue:
1-Deflation means giving power to the debtors as they collect on their debt and are able to purchase assets at high discounts.
2-The classifieds still list relatively high prices for luxury items. When I see people putting their plasmas on a firesale for 80% since they are not paying it back anyway and they need to buy food then I will accept the deflation scheme.
3-There is likely to be another wave of liquidation coming to a hedge fund near you which will seem like deflation till people rush with their monies to buy the next asset class(most likely at this point will be gold).
4-The politicians are going to force credit to be extended, and when they do everyone now knows what they have to do, take as much as you can and you might be even lucky enough to not have to pay it back.
with that said, I am waiting to see whether a next leg in liquidation drive gold back down to $700. I am a gold buyer on a break down to $600-700s or on a break out above $940 on closing basis

First Call of a Double-Dip Recession: Setting Up a Market Bottom?

I think TBT is a good play here because TLT failed to make any newer highs since it is 52 week $123 high. I am so tempted to buy XLE and I feel like I missed the boat on TCK or USO or DRYS but the volumes were just so unconvincing.
I saw a good sign when I read that savings increased to $270 bln from $70bln for the month of october YoY. that is very good the only issue now is how will unemployment play into all this?I expect we will see 10% unemployment by May or june unless somehow the new administration pulls a rabbit out of their hat.
I am still unconvinced, the only thing I find attractive right now is food and energy because they are just too damn cheap. Solar stocks have also been beaten beyond death and I think that they represent a good value at current prices but need to be picky and make sure they have enough cash to keep running.

The Market Has Come to You

Any particular recommendation?

What's It Going to Be: Inflation or Deflation?

The suggestion that foreign governments will let the dollar tank is absurd. They will do everything to support the dollar. The dollar is backed by the full faith of the US government and its might, so you better pay attention. They also hold LOTS of $ so to let it fall is basically to say they gave away all those natural resources and poisoned toys for free for so many years.
I think what is happening is that we are continuing to deflate and asset prices will fall till they become cheap enough for all those holding the $ to buy them. In the process Mom & Pops will go out of business, your silver inheritance will be listed on ebay or sold to kitco for pennies etc.
By the way, a Brigade is just too small for any thing worth mentioning.

Going to Hell in a Handbasket: The Rush To Protect More Stocks

Poor lehman, if only they had goldman in their name!!!

This Is a Trader’s Market, Volatility Demands It

Bill,
You predicted in BusinessWeek the december issue of last December that DOW will be 13000 by december. How does that fit with you article here?Are you saying we are going to charge at 13000 before we hit 10000.The Dow chart and I am a beginner seem to get a bounce around that 11000 mark and there is a long consolidation pattern in that are running from December 2006 to early 2007 before the rally to 14000. It looks to me that the dow is ready for a long leg down but what are the chances we don't get a mini rally here that pushes above 12700?

The Cyclical Nature of Markets

Bill,
What do you think about fertilizers here?potash company specifically IPI.
Also, I like TCK and ABX mainly because of their leadership in their sectors and because of their recent energy acquisitions.I personally think Oil touches 90s and then rallies secretly when the next bull comes because headlines were be all about the economy recovering and the dollar appreciating.

Massey Energy Posts Big Number But Big Charge Too

Oil is in a downtrend, till it tests $117 then we will see. I personally we see $95-105 and stale there for a while.I think funds are selling energy companies and buying refiners. I am thinking about picking up valero, SOLF and IPI but I am going to wait a little bit.
later on, probably around oct. I would like to buy BTU, ABX , TCK.

Financials: How - And When - We Reached the Bottom

Those who earn money, have trillions of dollars in their reserves. once they all move to a 'basked of currency' and their citizens reach 'consumer grade' we will no longer be necessary to fuel the global consumption.
I think we are due for a bounce technically, financials are beaten down and it is quarter time so we will see another 2-3 months rally of sorts. There is one glimpse of good news: investment banks are not borrowing as much in the last month or so. I suppose they made enough money buying oil futures and then raising price targets, good for them.
I want to buy potash companies but a little nervous, also want to buy some bulk shipping companies. certainly don't think financials are a bargain. I would go to tech though I think tech has been getting sold for such a long time and I think it is a sector that has a chance of survival especially tech services type not the hardware types.