pooramerican

Welcome to Decoupling 2.0: Any Validity This Time Around?

I am currently traveling in the middle east and I gotta tell ya, the consumers over here seem to be shopping like there is no tomorrow. I am not sure if it is seasonal or what, but every time I go to the mall it is full of people and the carts are full. I am pretty sure this kind of consumption is at least putting some brake pressure on deflation. I think it all comes down to the credit available and from what I am seeing it looks like credit is more available outside the US.

First Call of a Double-Dip Recession: Setting Up a Market Bottom?

I think TBT is a good play here because TLT failed to make any newer highs since it is 52 week $123 high. I am so tempted to buy XLE and I feel like I missed the boat on TCK or USO or DRYS but the volumes were just so unconvincing.
I saw a good sign when I read that savings increased to $270 bln from $70bln for the month of october YoY. that is very good the only issue now is how will unemployment play into all this?I expect we will see 10% unemployment by May or june unless somehow the new administration pulls a rabbit out of their hat.
I am still unconvinced, the only thing I find attractive right now is food and energy because they are just too damn cheap. Solar stocks have also been beaten beyond death and I think that they represent a good value at current prices but need to be picky and make sure they have enough cash to keep running.

The Market Has Come to You

Any particular recommendation?

This Is a Trader’s Market, Volatility Demands It

Bill,
You predicted in BusinessWeek the december issue of last December that DOW will be 13000 by december. How does that fit with you article here?Are you saying we are going to charge at 13000 before we hit 10000.The Dow chart and I am a beginner seem to get a bounce around that 11000 mark and there is a long consolidation pattern in that are running from December 2006 to early 2007 before the rally to 14000. It looks to me that the dow is ready for a long leg down but what are the chances we don't get a mini rally here that pushes above 12700?

Oversold and Headed for a Triple Bottom?

Why you think hedge fund computers are bullish?I think they are instructed to be bearish and they sell all rallies with volumes.

Double Bottom Forming or Just a Pit Stop on the Way Down?

I think we are about to see another big leg down.
in terms of support, the S&P looks really broken now: 1348 was taken out(50% retraction from the rally's high) and 1326 was taken out today. I am looking for 11500 on the dow to see if if that will hold.What I am most interested at this moment is gold price

S&P 500 is Testing the Bottom of Its Range

I want to believe that everything will be ok in 6 months, but with 1360 on S&P I just think the rally is over unless the PPT come up with something really good on Monday.
Also, the end of this month will mark a 3 month cycle which is gonna be crazy as funds shift/dump positions,etc.
Do you think Gold looks good here?
I was in ABX then the strong dollar policy talk came by and I got out. do you think this is a good entry point or should I wait for it to clear previous high?

Two Intraday Reversals: Trouble Ahead?

Do you think we see a contraction on the SPY to 1385ish and the NAZ to 2400ish before everyone has to show their hands?