Vitrinite

Investing in the Marcellus Shale

"self empowerment".

Seeking Alpha prompts self empowerment.

Because you can think/say some thing, doesn;t mean it has a
drop of valadity.

Investing in the Marcellus Shale

Sham, scam city.

Exco's acreage is in such poor areas my guess is 10% is prospective.
Thye leased in Southern Wayne Couty, can you say "structurally complexity".
Counties west of Centre except for teh 3 most SW,
have gone dead.

Long quality RRC short junkos, XCO, LINN etc haas worked.

That upsate NY Norweigen stk I think is worth 0,.
There is no Marcellus drilling at sub 4k ft depth.

Have any lessons been learned here?

Mr.Vitrinite

Investing in the Marcellus Shale

My idea is short the weaker ones (xco, ATN)that are up on general Marcellus hype. And stay long the ones with quality leashold positions (RRC, COG, CNX ) in the fairway of the play.

v

Investing in the Marcellus Shale

Without question the Marcellus Shale play is the most exciting topic in the US natural gas world today. However, in this “do-it-myself” research age, errors can be made.
# 1. I suggest researching what % of Range assets exist in Appalachia and what % Marcellus may represent of their output in 2-3 yrs.
2. Next expertise varies widely, fracing skill/experience can make the difference between a great well and a dud.

3. Linn. Linn doesn’t do exploratory drilling, does the author know that? They buy shallow sands developmental property and take the gas out. Do there even have a well drilled to the Marcellus formation? I don’t think so. Do they own deep rights below their shallow production? Or does someone else own that? Shallow well drilling is akin to glorified water well drilling.
E&P shale takes huge capital and it has to be risked. LPs paying out cash flow can’t compete. I know no one who calls Linn a Marcellus play.

4. Next, shale varies across the geographic spectrum. Lycoming County PA acreage may have 2Xs the output potential of SW PA.

Some NY hedge fund thinks, New Fuel Gas acreage in NW PA has value. Well, ask a company who has drilled it., the shale is immature there.
It has zero in common with Range acreage. All of CHK’s acreage isn’t IN prime Marcellus fairway.

Exco ? If they are paying 750$ to lease south of the Allegheny Front, are they planning blue stone operations? Because there isn’t any gas there.
I don’t mean to be so adamant but this isn’t homogenous at all.

Mr Vitrinite