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  • BHP Billiton - Is It The Right Time For This Basic Materials Giant?  [View article]
    Excellent analysis Sir!

    Paraphrasing Uncle, "Is it genuinely different this time?" Do we have any sentient longs on the repeal of the laws of supply and demand beyond the shorts?

    Mar 18, 2015. 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BHP Billiton - Is It The Right Time For This Basic Materials Giant?  [View article]
    Excellent analysis. Buy it low, hold it, forget about it, and enjoy the distributions.

    BTW, an "expert" is merely a person greater than 20-miles from his/her domicile with a box of slides updated to a PowerPoint presentation (-:

    Well done Sir!
    Mar 16, 2015. 10:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Do We Put All This Oil?  [View article]
    Excellent analysis and thank you for your time in posting it!
    Mar 9, 2015. 07:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Do We Put All This Oil?  [View article]
    According to the EIA (attached) the US oil production numbers are 11.1 mbd with US oil consumption reported at 18.5 mbd.


    Reviewing the comments, many of the numbers posted are significantly different than the US Energy Information Administration figures. In any event, 7.4 mb are apparently imported daily yet we worry endlessly about storage issues. Perhaps someone with certifiable expertise can clarify this difficult to understand issue (emphasis added)!

    Mar 8, 2015. 06:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudi Concerns: Exporting Shale Oil Technology  [View article]
    Ghawar as previously mentioned was discovered in 1947. Reportedly and consistent with depletion maintenance compensation, sea water and more recently CO2 injection techniques are now actively employed at Ghawar.

    Thus, the choice for Saudi production figures may be increasingly non-elective moving forward.


    Feb 2, 2015. 12:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Main Bearish Thesis On Crude  [View article]
    Excellent work Paulo! Several bytes supporting your position:

    1) Party like it is 2038: http://tinyurl.com/kwt...

    2) Ghawar was discovered in 1947

    3) Reportedly Ghawar's production quotient was first maintained by sea water injection and more recently by CO2 injection (?). I will permit those with oil extraction expertise to comment on this issue

    4) China even in a far less than optimal economic environment will reportedly increase its oil imports by 5% in 2015

    5) Reportedly, the Chinese car to population ratio is approximately 80 cars per 1000 citizens. The US ratio is almost a zero higher. If the above is reportedly accurate, I will permit the reader to extrapolate the growth potential factor in play.

    Yes, I am long oil and wish to get "longer!"

    Again, I appreciate Paulo's expert analysis and best of luck to all.
    Jan 20, 2015. 10:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Governments Need Inflation, Economies Don't  [View article]
    "Nothing sways the stupid more than arguments they can't understand." - Cardinal Jean Francois Paul de Gondi.
    Oct 18, 2014. 09:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Historical P/E Ratio  [View article]
    Barrons TTM S&P PE - 05/16/2014:

    As of 05/21/2014:

    From the above links, the TTM S&P 500 PE is in general terms 18.77. The inconsistency with the Bespoke figure appears as a constant in context of previous similar articles.
    May 21, 2014. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Momentum Stocks Got You Down? Try A Low-Risk Trade On The S&P 500 For A Change  [View article]
    I genuinely appreciate Doc's work. With that said and the S&P index at a TTM PE of 20 on 04/03/14 before the subsequent 2-day sell-off, it becomes difficult for value minds to believe that bargains abound. Additionally, the constant drumbeat of the market is "rigged" since the Michael Lewis 60-Minute piece of 03/30/14 is at least of interest.

    Is it possible that an increasing mass of disenchanted market participants have applied the movie Network approach? To refresh our memory, are we observing an open our window and shouting out, "I am mad as **** and I am not going to take it anymore" moment?
    Apr 8, 2014. 10:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Smoking-Hot Emerging Market ETFs: The Real Thing Or Just Another Head Fake?  [View article]

    Steve Leuthold reports that 22% of his one billion dollar portfolio is invested in China with 50% total invested in Asia.

    For diversification one may wish to include a regional Brazil, Mexico, and Latin America ETF as ILF to the above.

    Bon Temps Roule and my best to all!

    Apr 3, 2014. 12:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy China On This Multi-Year Pattern  [View article]

    For the dedicated value types, "good news" is at hand. It takes a strong constitution to accept buying at these levels likely will not provide anything close to instant gratification. Patience grasshopper, patience becomes the watch phrase!

    One absolute, however, exists and that is investors accumulating shares at these levels will never be accused of buying at the top - LOL. CHN at a 12.4% discount may be of interest as well for regional diversification.

    My best to the few believers in difficult times.
    Mar 20, 2014. 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy China On This Multi-Year Pattern  [View article]
    Well done and spot-on. As Ben Graham would enthusiastically attest, valuations and fundamentals matter!
    Mar 19, 2014. 02:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paulson reportedly not buying more gold  [View news story]
    Did Ole John just capitulate? Interesting that Soros reportedly bought back approximately 50% of his previously sold mining shares.

    In any event Joel's note is at a minimum ... of historic merit!
    Nov 22, 2013. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Am Sticking With Gold: A Critique Of 'The Golden Dilemma'  [View article]
    The Doc's work is always carefully crafted and at a minimum, stimulating (emphasis added). Certain issues in the universe compel me to perform careful fundamental analysis and others subjectively are simply, "gimmes" especially over time.

    Supporting the above, the Marc Faber thoughts on the purchase of gold (partial substitution of silver appears reasonable) appear directed. Marc Faber said, "Nobody knows whether it’s a good time to buy gold or not…as I have repeatedly said in my reports, I buy gold every month and on the recent decline I bought more at $1,400 and I have an order at $1,300 and one at $1,200 and one at $1,100 an ounce....."

    I appreciate that there are those that reject this approach. Fine, but do not attempt to confiscate the holdings from those that agree with Marc when his approach inevitably proves fruitful.
    Jul 30, 2013. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's PBOC eliminates the country's lending rate floor - which prevented banks from lending below a centrally planned price - and also says it will reform deposit caps. There's "no direct economic impact except (a) positive message of reform," says Sebastien Galy. Nevertheless, the aussie (FXA) pops about 50 pips. China financial ETF: CHIX[View news story]
    Lesser saver's interest rates strongly encourages cash placement in the depressed equity markets. Additionally, precious metal accumulation especially after a huge recent decline/collapse becomes a distinct possibility.

    It is far beyond the scope of this discussion to postulate why PMs have sustained their recent unexplained decline/collapse. With the shift in cash discussed above, one can only imagine the effect of such interest rate policy had the metals been anywhere near their recent highs.

    In any event, Chinese equities may well have bottomed. Time will tell. (I hold Chinese Equity ETFs and may buy additional shares near term)
    Jul 19, 2013. 07:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment