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  • Governments Need Inflation, Economies Don't [View article]
    "Nothing sways the stupid more than arguments they can't understand." - Cardinal Jean Francois Paul de Gondi.
    Oct 18, 2014. 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Historical P/E Ratio [View article]
    Barrons TTM S&P PE - 05/16/2014:

    As of 05/21/2014:

    From the above links, the TTM S&P 500 PE is in general terms 18.77. The inconsistency with the Bespoke figure appears as a constant in context of previous similar articles.
    May 21, 2014. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Momentum Stocks Got You Down? Try A Low-Risk Trade On The S&P 500 For A Change [View article]
    I genuinely appreciate Doc's work. With that said and the S&P index at a TTM PE of 20 on 04/03/14 before the subsequent 2-day sell-off, it becomes difficult for value minds to believe that bargains abound. Additionally, the constant drumbeat of the market is "rigged" since the Michael Lewis 60-Minute piece of 03/30/14 is at least of interest.

    Is it possible that an increasing mass of disenchanted market participants have applied the movie Network approach? To refresh our memory, are we observing an open our window and shouting out, "I am mad as **** and I am not going to take it anymore" moment?
    Apr 8, 2014. 10:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Smoking-Hot Emerging Market ETFs: The Real Thing Or Just Another Head Fake? [View article]

    Steve Leuthold reports that 22% of his one billion dollar portfolio is invested in China with 50% total invested in Asia.

    For diversification one may wish to include a regional Brazil, Mexico, and Latin America ETF as ILF to the above.

    Bon Temps Roule and my best to all!

    Apr 3, 2014. 12:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy China On This Multi-Year Pattern [View article]

    For the dedicated value types, "good news" is at hand. It takes a strong constitution to accept buying at these levels likely will not provide anything close to instant gratification. Patience grasshopper, patience becomes the watch phrase!

    One absolute, however, exists and that is investors accumulating shares at these levels will never be accused of buying at the top - LOL. CHN at a 12.4% discount may be of interest as well for regional diversification.

    My best to the few believers in difficult times.
    Mar 20, 2014. 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy China On This Multi-Year Pattern [View article]
    Well done and spot-on. As Ben Graham would enthusiastically attest, valuations and fundamentals matter!
    Mar 19, 2014. 02:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paulson reportedly not buying more gold [View news story]
    Did Ole John just capitulate? Interesting that Soros reportedly bought back approximately 50% of his previously sold mining shares.

    In any event Joel's note is at a minimum ... of historic merit!
    Nov 22, 2013. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Am Sticking With Gold: A Critique Of 'The Golden Dilemma' [View article]
    The Doc's work is always carefully crafted and at a minimum, stimulating (emphasis added). Certain issues in the universe compel me to perform careful fundamental analysis and others subjectively are simply, "gimmes" especially over time.

    Supporting the above, the Marc Faber thoughts on the purchase of gold (partial substitution of silver appears reasonable) appear directed. Marc Faber said, "Nobody knows whether it’s a good time to buy gold or not…as I have repeatedly said in my reports, I buy gold every month and on the recent decline I bought more at $1,400 and I have an order at $1,300 and one at $1,200 and one at $1,100 an ounce....."

    I appreciate that there are those that reject this approach. Fine, but do not attempt to confiscate the holdings from those that agree with Marc when his approach inevitably proves fruitful.
    Jul 30, 2013. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's PBOC eliminates the country's lending rate floor - which prevented banks from lending below a centrally planned price - and also says it will reform deposit caps. There's "no direct economic impact except (a) positive message of reform," says Sebastien Galy. Nevertheless, the aussie (FXA) pops about 50 pips. China financial ETF: CHIX[View news story]
    Lesser saver's interest rates strongly encourages cash placement in the depressed equity markets. Additionally, precious metal accumulation especially after a huge recent decline/collapse becomes a distinct possibility.

    It is far beyond the scope of this discussion to postulate why PMs have sustained their recent unexplained decline/collapse. With the shift in cash discussed above, one can only imagine the effect of such interest rate policy had the metals been anywhere near their recent highs.

    In any event, Chinese equities may well have bottomed. Time will tell. (I hold Chinese Equity ETFs and may buy additional shares near term)
    Jul 19, 2013. 07:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking For A Reason To Invest In New Zealand? [View article]
    I agree with your analysis regarding comparing US valuations with NZ numbers. Hence, I am attempting to formulate a database for establishing mean NZ and other single country valuations for reference purposes. These non-US numbers are generally difficult and frustrating to determine. Unfortunately they are not available from BlackRock.

    "The past 3-years available ENZL mean PE is approximately 22.5 with a Book Value of approximately 1.95. The current 06/30/13 numbers (ENZL) are 21.6 and 3.32."

    Best of luck to all and may we all live long and prosper.
    Jul 15, 2013. 07:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking For A Reason To Invest In New Zealand? [View article]
    A very well done analysis. With that said, the Ben Graham value fundamentals are always worth at least a review.

    The past 3-years available ENZL mean PE is approximately 22.5 with a Book Value of approximately 1.95. The current 06/30/13 numbers are 21.6 and 3.32. The ETF is up 30.7% from its 12/22/11 low of $26.85 and down 11.5% from its 04/30/13 recent high of $39.61. Lastly ENZL trades at -2.63% from its 200 day moving average.

    Methods of issue selection certainly exist other than value investing. If one is a fan of this discipline, however, the current book value of 3.32 is a concern. Additionally, the 200 day moving average perspective of only -2.63 is not particularly attractive.

    With this information in place and purely from a subjective value perspective, ENZL is not currently on my buy list. Again, I found your article stimulating and thought provoking.
    Jul 15, 2013. 11:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 P/E Ratio [View article]
    Perhaps we should focus on the current and accurate TTM S&P PE as reported by Barrons of 19.27 with a book of 2.50. Additionally, the Schiller 10-year PE is recorded as 24.37.

    The lowest 2013 week ending TTM S&P PE recorded was 16.95 on 01/04/13. The historic mean figure is 15.6.
    May 18, 2013. 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BHP Billton: Production Is Increasing But More Patience Is Needed [View article]
    Timely and well done piece. My personal favorite non-precious metal miner ETF is PICK with a sum total BHP exposure of approximately 20%.
    May 6, 2013. 03:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheniere Energy's LNG Project Close To Being Fully Subscribed [View article]
    Mar 26, 2013. 10:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • P/E Ratios Creeping Higher [View article]
    According to Barron's as of 03/08/13 the S&P TTM PE is 17.96 with a Book of 2.46.

    I am a fan of further run here but 17.96 is 17.77% higher than the article's reported PE value of 15.25. With that said, few if any secular collapses have occurred with a PE under 20. What I find interesting is apparently how few investors focus on Ben Graham's quintessential valuations. In any event, enjoy the good times maximally when they are in play.
    Mar 11, 2013. 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment