jse17's Comments

On Dubai's Default, CRE Loans and Frugal U.S. Consumers

Fri, 27 Nov 2009 11:52:18 -0500

In retrospect, the mother of all ridiculous, wasteful, and useless projects constructed by the Dubai “brain trust” unequivocally gravitates to the indoor ski slope project. How could otherwise prudent (term used generically) financial types lend unmanageable sums to those without a scintilla of long term foundational economic acumen (no offense to our Middle Eastern friends).

Attempting to morph Dubai from a rapidly oil depleting hulk into the “fun” center of the area at first brush appears interesting. Unfortunately, food costs and assorted other essentials of human survival now materially consumes the coin formerly delegated to frivolity. Lastly, even in the best of times, an active imagination and disassociation with daily reality is a must when projecting lighthearted decadence in anything other than the world’s garden spot in far too many venues!

Best of luck to those that bought the brewery when a 6-pack purchase had substantive risks!

International ETFs: 2009 Returns

Thu, 26 Nov 2009 11:16:22 -0500

EWZ 2009 Stats:

finance.yahoo.com/echa...;range=ytd;indicator=b...

YTD = +112%
Low to Date = +142

(Anyone with a contra position penchant looking at Japan?)

On Nov 23 07:25 PM Albert Ling wrote:

> this can't be right, EWZ hasn't appreciated 196% in 2009, only if
> you get data since its lows. YTD the figure is +117%

Nikkei Nosedive: Signals from a Weak Japan

Tue, 24 Nov 2009 22:18:00 -0500

The Nikkei is now at levels that make the hard core value set e.g., First Eagle take notice. With this said, either Japan will implode because of numerous economic and demographic problems or buyers at low to very low valuations will become frequent visitors to future boat, small aircraft, and exotic jewelry shows.

Time will tell and the buy low philosophy will again be tested. Any bets on the ultimate outcome?

On Nov 24 09:06 PM hock wrote:

> Debt problem in Japan although huge is not an immediate issue. With
> Yen 1,500 trillion of domestic savings and total government debts
> and obligations of Yen 700 trillion (took 20 years to incur), there
> is a spare change of Yen 800 trillion. Funding JGBs is not a problem.
> The real problem for Japan is deflation which makes the Nikkei very
> weak. Japan is the only major nation with real deflation, yet having
> a strong currency. Japanese policy makers should and are justified
> to aggressively intervene in the FX market to sell Yen and buy Dollar
> to inject inflationary liquidity into its financial system and economy.
> BOJ and MOF should not hesistate to correct this abnormaly of deflation
> with strong Yen. Nikkei is bound to rally with a FX intervention.

Kleinschmidt Tells WealthTrack What His Contrarianism Says About the Dollar

Tue, 24 Nov 2009 17:29:09 -0500

Well worth the watch and very well done.

Additionally, it was gratifying to see “Ole” Bob put the moves on the lovely Consuelo near the interview’s end. Yes, many of us are growing older hopefully gracefully and we “ain’t” dead yet! I do not recall Ben Graham ever writing that no fun was a prerequisite for investment success.

Go for it, Bob!

Americans Get Their Driving Mojo Back Over the Summer

Sun, 22 Nov 2009 10:34:45 -0500

"The chart above shows the percent change in U.S. traffic volume through September (from the SAME MONTH in the Previous YEAR), in a report released today by the Federal Highway Administration (data and report here)."

On Nov 22 09:50 AM Old Trader wrote:

> A couple of points to consider:
>
> 1) Summer is the peak driving season in the US, due to vacations,
> so a more meaningful comparision would be previous summertime periods.

Closed-End Funds: Hugging the Flat line

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 10:17:48 -0500

www.adams-express.com/...

Focus on (C)

The Compelling Case for Converting Adams Express into an Active ETF

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 10:15:43 -0500

www.adams-express.com/...

Focus on (C)

On Nov 13 11:35 AM HighTower wrote:

> This seems like a reasonable suggestion. What is ADX management response?
> Is there something this guy is missing?

The Compelling Case for Converting Adams Express into an Active ETF

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 09:17:16 -0500

Sigh, here we go AGAIN!

GE to Close Its Only U.S. Solar Panel Factory

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 12:37:51 -0500

Yes, eliminating Immelt et al’s salary and benefit package is an excellent modality for GE corporate cost and waste reduction. Of course this option is “out of the question!”

On Nov 09 04:32 PM Zenfar wrote:

> Just because GE can't do it, doesn't mean it can't be done. ASTI
> is doing it.

CEF Weekly Review: Ping Pong, Anyone?

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 12:23:32 -0500

Joe,

I appreciate your viewpoint and agree that reasonable discussion and divergent analysis promotes progress in all venues! Additionally, I readily accept that CEFs are not for all investors with premium/discount avoidance alternatives readily available e.g., OEFs and ETFs.

I enjoy your work creating a first read on my follow list.

On Nov 08 10:18 PM Joe Eqcome wrote:

> In the final analysis the shareholders own the companies in which
> they invest and should be operated for their benefit. For concerned
> shareholders not to agitate for a higher valuation is a dereliction
> of their rights. (Not everyone trades this stock on price variations.
> In fact, most of the shareholders are probably “buy and hold”.)

>
> Shareholders need to continue to legitimately challenge management
> to seek demonstrable ways of adding value, or outside influences
> (raiders) will bring to bear that challenge by removing management
> in favor of their own interest and that interest may not be aligned
> with the remaining shareholders’ interest.
>
> I believe not enough pressure is being placed on ADX’s management
> to close its persistent 12%-15% discount in a portfolio of highly-liquid
> large cap securities.
>
> Shareholders should seek a resolution for ADX for a trigger mechanism
> that after a certain time period if the discount remains at 10% (or
> another legitimate discount) ADX should institute a in-kind tender
> offer, much like Tri-Continental, so shareholders can at least realize
> some of the discount in the secondary markets.
>
> I believe a fear of a loss of management fees and potentially a loss
> of management's jobs would place a new urgency on focusing on getting
> the value up from this persistent, dismal discount. Let me also note
> there’s been paltry insider buying by management in ADX. So, apparently,
> they agree that the discount will persist in the future.
>
> This doesn’t have to necessarily end up in the liquidation of ADX;
> it could end up in higher valuation for the shareholders and ADX
> remaining a closed-end fund.
>
> That would make us all happy.
> On Nov 08 08:25 PM jse17 wrote:

Obamacare: Affordable Private Insurance Is Already Available

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 09:28:02 -0500

Put the bong down now Mark!!!!

My tab for my wife and my basic BC/BS coverage comes to an astounding $12,000/year with a $500 deductable and without pre-existing conditions. If this is affordable, then the author has received his healthcare far too long as state of Michigan employee.

Try working for a living Mark and then with good conscious state that $12,000/year for healthcare is AFFORDABLE!

On Nov 09 07:45 AM Tom Armistead wrote:

> Mark, I live in CT and am in my early 60's. The last time I had to
> look at individual health insurance premiums they were higher than
> what you quote, even with high deductibles. They further came with
> exhausitve questionaires and the cheapest premium company undertook
> to sell me a policy with a rider that took out coverage for my entire
> gatro-intestinal system.
>
> Even the numbers you quote look a little steep compared to average
> wage rates, and they are prohibitive when viewed in the context of
> the minimum wage.
>
> There is something wrong here and it needs to be fixed. Whether the
> current health-care reform legistlation will fix it is another question
> entirely.

CEF Weekly Review: Ping Pong, Anyone?

Sun, 08 Nov 2009 20:25:54 -0500

“Joe, Leave ADX Alone!”

As mentioned in response to your earlier “attack” on ADX, its P/D figures generally correspond to and are often better than similarly positioned CEFs. Additionally, as the previous poster mentions, the fund’s management is solid if not spectacular. Moreover, it does not require a finance Nobel Laureate to formulate a buy/sell protocol on this or any CEF.

In the end, all cancers commit volitional suicide by consuming their afflicted host! Opening all CEFs is analogous in character!

The Demise of Japan as an Economic Power?

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 08:27:14 -0500

www.trustnet.com/News/...

The Demise of Japan as an Economic Power?

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 23:20:53 -0500

If one were truly a contrarian in context of the abundance of bad news presented here and elsewhere, one would likely buy the Japanese ETFs and CEFs. Additionally, the Japanese indexes are the least expensive of any major market according to First Eagle Fund’s manager.

As the E*TRADE baby so eloquently states, do some analytics and basic research Shankopotamus …… !

Another Reason You Should Be on the Sidelines Now

Tue, 03 Nov 2009 20:01:02 -0500

I too enjoy PDP’s articles but …… If one uses “technicals” at all, comparing charts from 80 years in the distant past to the current market environment is much like evaluating the weather forecast from that era as a marker for tomorrow.

The wondrous and talented Sir John Templeton said, “I never knew an investor that consistently made money applying technical analysis. For those that respect and adhere to the technical school, I wish you the best but “C’mon man (or lady)” an 80 year gap in events is beyond a reasonable reach!

On Nov 01 04:49 AM TradingHelpDesk wrote:

> You articles continue to be a must read.
>
> I learn something everytime. Thanks.

Paul Tudor Jones: Gold's Undervalued and Bonds Are a Curve Flattener Play

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 12:24:47 -0400

Explosive up moves certainly brings the Guru class to the forefront including the recycled variants! Alternatively, as one of the current, popular investment advisors so eloquently states (the E*TRADE Baby) do a little analytics and research and make it happen on your own!

Nassim Taleb Confronts Critics

Wed, 28 Oct 2009 09:35:26 -0400

I would state to Dr. Taleb that legitimate educators attempt to enlighten, enrich, and inform while charlatans pontificate and confuse! Additionally, the brightest among us rarely require continuous reinforcement of their superior (emphasis added) intellect!

Grantham on the Markets: '860 Is Fair Value for S&P'

Tue, 27 Oct 2009 22:46:31 -0400

Bingo!

There is always a second component to these wild predictions even if unreported. Something on the order of but I will show you the way is casually implied. Jeremy has no more of a valid idea of what the market will price out in 7-years than the price of postage stamps assuming they continue to exist!

Clark Gable's famous quote from Gone With The Wind many years back remains valid and applicable even today, "Frankly, I do not give a damn!"

On Oct 27 01:23 PM CES wrote:

> No comment about predicting the market's value and going on out SEVEN
> years ahead-what a crystal ball !!!!

Stock Price Strength Notwithstanding, Economy and the Dollar Are Still on the Skids

Wed, 21 Oct 2009 10:55:16 -0400

A two-part question for inquisitive minds:

1-What is the most out of favor investment vehicle imaginable ATPIT?

2-What fool would possibly place USDs into a MMF?

(Hint) Everyone has a long term, independent, contra-oriented investment philosophy until times get difficult! Additionally, I believe we may all agree that times are currently difficult! The more difficult the investment environment, the more likely the return to the investment fetal position!

As Barton Biggs states, it indeed takes great courage to be a pig!

The Greatest Depression Is Coming

Mon, 19 Oct 2009 19:19:14 -0400

Ravi Batra as Lazarus before him has risen at least in form!

John Hussman: The Stock Market has Never Been this (Intermediate-Term) Overbought

Mon, 19 Oct 2009 11:48:32 -0400

I appreciate Dr. John’s work that presents in an insightful, intellectual mode. Supporting the overbought scenario, mutual fund cash was reported at 4.0% down from its recent 02/2009 high of 5.9%. The recent low of 3.5% was recorded in 07/2007, a happier point in time. These figures are reported with a 2-month lag by the Investment Company Institute’s bulletin.

With all of the technicals noted and assumed material in character, what do we do? Barton Biggs has stated that it takes courage to be a pig! Baron Von Rothschild proclaimed that his wealth resulted from taking the middle 2-quarters of a market’s move and forfeiting the first and fourth quarter’s profits. It is abundantly safe to say that conflicting clichés, truisms, formulas theories, and tenets abound.

A prudent investor may well respond that it is impossible to know with any degree of absolute certainty precisely what to do. If so, perhaps it is best to take some of our highly valued chips off the table e.g., 10%, sit back and open a bottle of our favorite libation, and enjoy the day!

5 ETFs to Buy With Loonie's New Power

Fri, 16 Oct 2009 09:01:14 -0400

I appreciate Larry’s article and input. Yes, it does appear time from the Canadian perspective to engage the process!

Additionally, several of my Ontario based friends who have previously rented for the winter months season in South Florida are actively considering condo purchases this year! On an anecdotal foundation, beautiful units in the Jupiter, Juno, and Tequesta area are discounted up to 50% from their 2006 highs.

Is There Really a Global 'Cabal' Aiming to Dump the Dollar?

Wed, 07 Oct 2009 09:11:34 -0400

Yes and the earth is 6000 years old, Terry Schiavo was sentient at her demise, and the Birther's are a universally respected academic body!

Speaking of Birthers, the world's developing nations are driven to produce, scientists, engineers, and educators, while the US fills the room with 7.5 watt "night lights". Not a pretty picture in the least!

On Oct 06 11:43 AM Socialism cannot compete! wrote:

> Author says there may be a secret cabal acting against the U.S. dollar.
> I say it is no secret to Obumma -- he is not loyal to the U.S., and
> it would not be surprising at all if he told the other nations to
> dump the dollar and thereby "redistribute" value more equitably around
> the world. After all, he is a "citizen of the world"...has foreign
> allegiances (Kenya, Indonesia...Saudi Arabia?) stronger than anything
> he has to America -- as witnessed by his constant apologizing for
> America (when has he said anything negative about Indo or Kenya?).
> The man is fine with the dollar tanking. It may well be part of the
> strategy for taking more control -- an even weaker economy is needed,
> but it has to look like it happened from without.

Sleeping With The Jaguars

Tue, 06 Oct 2009 11:37:08 -0400

Your reference to “zealots” advocating global climate change is most interesting in evaluating this group’s intellect and academic achievements vs. that of the Kool-Aid guzzling disbelievers!

“Science as a Candle in the Dark,” Carl Sagan PhD. Paraphrasing, “C’mon man!”

On Oct 05 07:26 PM ebworthen wrote:

> One need only hear climate change believers say that "It is no longer
> debateable" to know that the time to question has come.
>
> I could list facts here, but the zealots would not hear them.
>
> Global warming is a religion, where humanity is omniscient and all-powerful,
> and the followers Arthur Dimmsdale lashing their backs and those
> of others for breathing, consuming, and creating "CO2".
>
> Unemployment - consider that our employment has increasingly become
> two wage earners, or three, or four per household. If the housing
> market and employment are in bad shape, collectively, we are in REALLY
> bad shape compared to past generations.

John Maudlin: When Debt Gets Bigger than GDP It's Big Trouble

Mon, 05 Oct 2009 09:48:52 -0400

Alas, Armageddon journalism sells books, journals, and convention/meeting tickets in exotic locales. Previous masters of this “art” during my investment carrier include the likes of Howard Ruff, Gary Schilling, Doug Casey, Gary North, Ravi Batra and John Mauldin among others.

Interestingly, this crew is almost never held accountable for their often failed philosophies. I suspect the accountability issue or lack thereof is based on the appeal of lower taxes, gold coins, a failed food supply chain, and government intervention etc.

Following the “sage” advice of this cluster is similar to betting against a Las Vegas Casino. Hey, who do you believe pays for the crystal chandeliers. Paraphrasing let the ultra sensitive ear beware of the perpetual negativity of the Siren’s song!

On Oct 05 08:42 AM Roger Nusbaum wrote:

> on going context; I've never been in the armageddon camp.
>
> to the other commenters the point i was referring to was not total
> indebtedness of the country which would include consumer and corporate
> debt.

Canada: Better Demographics than Many of Its Peers

Thu, 01 Oct 2009 09:59:49 -0400

Perhaps Larry’s two sentence presentation of why one should invest in Canada is more than succinct enough! Think about the future “stability index” vs. their lumbering, flailing, and floundering neighbor.

On Sep 29 02:52 PM Larry House wrote:

> I added EWC to the portfolio a few days ago. Seems as good bet as
> any.

Jeff Rubin: Expect Oil Prices to Rise Dramatically and Globalization to End

Fri, 25 Sep 2009 09:42:54 -0400

You lie!

On Sep 25 06:26 AM chich wrote:

> Wow bluesky, i think you're one of those people that loves the BP
> commercials talking about green and such, what an idiot. BP doesn't
> stand for beyond petroleum it stands for British petroleum just so
> you know....now, about the theory, it makes perfect sense. Oil is
> running out. It will NEVER run out, but it's supply will go down
> so much, and the easily accessible oil will be gone so soon that
> oil prices will go up. There is no cheap alternative. I repeat THERE
> IS NO CHEAP ALTERNATIVE. You have to understand the numbers and what
> they imply...You've seen in this very video that this year is having
> "unusually brisk" oil finds. Do you know how much 10 billion barrels
> of oil is? It's 4 months supply. That's right 4 months supply. And
> the stuff they're finding now is the stuff that's hard to get to.
> Not impossible, just hard to get to. This means higher price and
> this will change the way we live. No doubt about it.
> Now another number. Yesterday, yes, yesterday on September 24 I saw
> a commercial talking about how much gasoline the GREEN prius has
> saved. Believe, I love the marketing strategy. After all there are
> gullible morons like you who love that word who have enough money
> as a market demographic to cater to. Make no mistake, though, it's
> these same gullible morons that cry on the news about how their refinanced
> homes are too expensive now...because they never understood the underlying
> facts and principles behind the economy- look in the mirror and you'll
> know who I'm talking about. Now, back to the prius commercial, and
> the wonderful toyota marketers...the commercial said that the prius-
> worldwide mind you- had saved a whopping BILLION gallons of gas.
> Wow, A billion gallons of gas...wow...
> Again, run the numbers...Since it's inception in 1999, the prius
> has saved about 15 hours worth of global consumption of oil! That's
> 10 years of prius to save 15 hours worth of oil consumption...WOW...
> Each oil barrel is 42 gallons, and roughly depending on demand 20
> gallons of that goes to gasoline. So, 1 billion divided by 20 gives
> us the remarkable number of 50 Million barrels, which as i have said
> a couple of lines of text back, barely qualifies as a drop in the
> bucket- or 2 1/2 days of US oil consumption... THERE IS NO CHEAPER
> ALTERNATIVE THAN OIL. In fact, the most expensive barrel of oil will
> be the cost of the cheapest VIABLE YES VIABLE alternative energy.
> and that my dear, is where we see that oil in fact will never run
> out, but rather just get really expensive. It's the end of suburbia
> as we know it, and it's the rebirth of the bustling city center.
> I will be releasing a report soon, that buffoons such as yourself
> will be able to buy, so if you reread this, don't be too alarmed.

But Cash Is Earning Zero

Mon, 21 Sep 2009 19:27:43 -0400

"Anytime you read or hear anyone speak, it is important to realize there could be more context as not every one tells you everything he is thinking, like Jimmy Rogers."

I will assume Roger implies that "Ole" Jimmy is not the benevolent, altruistic, compassionate, selfless soul, and every investor’s best friend portrayed in his never ending television appearances.

Ask yourself, would you buy a used car from this guy?

Commercialization of Lithium-ion Batteries: New Business Opportunities?

Mon, 14 Sep 2009 08:52:17 -0400

Toyota Update:

www.bloomberg.com/apps...

There Are No Good Choices for the Fed

Sun, 13 Sep 2009 18:51:10 -0400

Ole John is a poor man's Gary Shilling. Their moment in the sun is exceedingly short and blessedly infrequent! This viewpoint plays well to the Birther class et al and the next catastrophic land mine always lies within the next step or two!

Chronic despondency sells newsletter subscriptions and admission tickets for Save Your Portfolio meetings in exotic settings!

On Sep 13 09:53 AM PearlCreek wrote:

> John Maudlin is bearish and in a long-winded confusing way?
>
> I am shocked, just shocked.