jse17

John Hussman: The Stock Market has Never Been this (Intermediate-Term) Overbought

I appreciate Dr. John’s work that presents in an insightful, intellectual mode. Supporting the overbought scenario, mutual fund cash was reported at 4.0% down from its recent 02/2009 high of 5.9%. The recent low of 3.5% was recorded in 07/2007, a happier point in time. These figures are reported with a 2-month lag by the Investment Company Institute’s bulletin.

With all of the technicals noted and assumed material in character, what do we do? Barton Biggs has stated that it takes courage to be a pig! Baron Von Rothschild proclaimed that his wealth resulted from taking the middle 2-quarters of a market’s move and forfeiting the first and fourth quarter’s profits. It is abundantly safe to say that conflicting clichés, truisms, formulas theories, and tenets abound.

A prudent investor may well respond that it is impossible to know with any degree of absolute certainty precisely what to do. If so, perhaps it is best to take some of our highly valued chips off the table e.g., 10%, sit back and open a bottle of our favorite libation, and enjoy the day!

John Hussman: Profiting from the Tooth Fairy

Your next 7.5 years will be long, painful, and futile. Empty, mindless rhetoric appeals currently to only 21% of the population!


On Aug 04 11:34 AM Zmartmoney wrote:

> Great WSJ story - "Teeing Up The Middle Class." Obama will be seen
> in retrospect as the man who lied his way into the White House, in
> a way that only a Chicago lawyer could. And, the goons of the country
> who didn't pay attention in Civics class put him there, with the
> hope that all their troubles would go away and world peace would
> break out in adoration of their saviour. Brother... Our short rally
> in celebration of not going over the cliff is just about over.

PIMCO's Bill Gross Sees a Bleak Future

Bill, a nice fellow, is more than ready for retirement. Additionally, he will then have ample time to hone and hopefully improve his clairvoyance index!

10 Contrarian Reasons for a Bottom

On Dec 09 09:25 AM pockyclips 2020 wrote:

> Try to catch that falling knife by the handle. Other than oil, I'm
> holding out for end of year mutual fund and capital loses before
> jumping back in.

Alas, the falling knife cliché has “lived long and prospered” for several generations! In attempting to update this time honored postulate, an opposing thought deserves analysis in context of extreme volatility in the modern era.

It appears far less difficult to catch a falling knife than chase a launched rocket!

Fun article Mr. Cam and your work is appreciated.

Last Thursday Was the Bottom - It's Time to Get Back in

As previously expressed, Julius Westheimer, a bright (Phi Beta Kappa at Dartmouth) and kindly gentleman when asked by Louis Rukeyser when is the best time to buy stocks responded, “Buy when you have the money Lou!” Taking this tenet to the next level, buy when you have the money and believe a stock or index has a greater likelihood of doubling vs. the probability of sustaining a 50% loss.

Obviously the involved analysis is ultimately subjective without any sustainable, accurate guiding principles e.g., those that actual work over time. Lazlo Birini recently wrote an excellent Forbes piece on this very topic. Additionally, one is not required to be anything other than reasonably close in bottom fishing to create extreme envy at his or her club within e.g., one year!

My opinion as well as every poster’s thoughts in this thread mean little to nothing in confirming or rejecting the author’s bottom statement. To each his own but never forget that Columbus took a chance! Best of luck to all!

Four Commonsense Clues to a Genuine Market Bottom

As the sage and gentlemanly investor Julius Westheimer stated to Louis Rukeyser when ask when was the proper time to buy stocks said, “Buy when you have the money Lou!” Attempting to update Julius’ advice, “Buy when you have the money and the likelihood of the market doubling exceeds the probability of a 50% decline.”

Yes, it is possible for the market to decline 50% from today’s level but interestingly, I cannot find a Vegas or elsewhere book willing to take the bet! “You betcha!”

The Shallowest Generation

"Yeah that's why I am a registered Republican."

Props to you on your party’s selection of Sarah Palin as a “legitimate” political figure. Please, bring her back in 2012.

If possible read or alternatively have some read to you at the public library Naomi Klein’s, The Shock Doctrine - Disaster Capitalism !

Cramer: Dow Could Drop Another 14%, Oil's Going to $50

"If DOW goes to sub 9,000 this will indicate recession but below 7,000 will indicate depression."

Link?????